Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 2:31 PM   Moonset 2:40 AM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 430 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon - .
Today - Southeast winds 20 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Choppy. Showers with Thunderstorms likely this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 430 Am Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will occur today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring additional showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS64 KMOB 171038 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An active and very complicated weather pattern will persist through Saturday afternoon as a couple more shortwaves eject northeast from a very slow moving positive tilt trough moving through the plains. A wake low has developed behind the initial wave of storms overnight, and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for today for all marine zones. The left over boundary from this convection will lift northward as a warm front throughout the day, and should provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development across our interior areas. The pre- storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats. The tornado threat, while non-zero, will be mitigated due to the weak low level shear values. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Slight Risk for severe storms for today. Another shortwave and associated MCS is expected to approach the area Friday this evening. These storms could again pose a damaging wind and large hail threat. Additional showers and storms are possible into Saturday as the approaching cold front slowly slips through the area.

The multiple rounds of rain on already saturated grounds will create the risk for flooding through Saturday. WPC had a moderate risk across northwest portions of the area with a slight risk across the remainder of the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area through 1PM Saturday. A High risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday afternoon. /13 /22

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The area dries out late in the weekend through the middle of next week. Weak ridging aloft builds into the region as a trough remains draped across the western Atlantic. This pattern results in northerly to northwesterly flow aloft developing overhead through early Wednesday. A surface high draped down the East Coast eventually nudges into the region early next week and onshore flow becomes established by Tuesday. A shortwave sliding across the central portion of the CONUS will cause the ridge aloft to briefly flatten toward the Gulf by mid-week. The bulk of the showers and storms associated with this shortwave will likely remain to our north on Wednesday and Thursday, although we can't rule out some isolated storms by Thursday afternoon.

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains HIGH on Sunday and eventually falls to MODERATE late on Sunday night. The risk remains MODERATE on Monday. RCMOS probabilities indicate that the risk should fall to a low on Tuesday through Thursday. RCMOS guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb

MARINE
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate to strong southerly winds along with building seas will occur today due to the development of a wake low. An approaching front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the marine area late tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 83 68 82 67 88 66 90 69 / 70 80 80 20 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 83 72 80 70 86 69 88 72 / 70 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Destin 83 73 80 71 85 71 85 72 / 60 50 80 40 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 82 65 87 64 89 64 / 80 80 90 30 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 66 84 64 86 63 90 66 / 90 70 70 10 10 0 0 0 Camden 81 67 82 64 85 63 88 64 / 90 70 80 30 20 0 0 0 Crestview 85 69 81 65 88 64 90 64 / 70 60 90 30 10 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

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Pensacola Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:10 AM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:34 PM CDT     0.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Warrington
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:39 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:14 AM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 PM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrington, 2 miles south of, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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