Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 6:04 AM   Moonset 8:30 PM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
Tonight - South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Friday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 343 Pm Cdt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.

FXUS64 KMOB 082101 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 401 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

An active weather period is expected through Friday. A line of storms will develop across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening and move southeast through overnight into Thursday as a shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley. The line will weaken Wednesday morning before potentially intensifying again during the afternoon hours. The main threat with these storms will likely remain to the north and east of our area. However, the atmosphere will become very unstable by the afternoon with MLCAPE values over 2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear values over 40 knots. The lack of strong forcing and the presence of a mid level warm layer will likely prevent strong storms from developing. However, any convection will have to closely monitored through the day as it could quickly become severe if any storms area able to punch through the warm layer aloft.

The next, more significant, severe threat develops during the late evening on Thursday. Another shortwave moves across the southern plains Thursday afternoon with thunderstorms developing across the Arklatex region. These storms are expected to merge into a cluster of storms (an MCS) and move eastward along the stalled frontal boundary across northern portions of the area. Instability values will remain high overnight in advance of these storms due to very steep mid level lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8c/km. In addition, some near term models are developing a strong rear inflow jet punching into the backside of the MCS. All these factors lead to the threat of damaging wind gusts some of which could be significant with gusts to 75 mph. The greatest chance of seeing damaging winds will be across northern portions of the area where SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk due to the significant wind gust threat. Large hail will also be a threat due to the strong instability and steep lapse rates. The tornado threat is on the low end due to weaker low level shear and straight line hodographs. The hail and tornado threat would be enhanced with any storms that are able to develop ahead of the main line of storms. The severe threat ends by mid morning on morning as the cold front moves southeast across the area.

Temperatures remain warm on Thursday with highs in the upper and low 90s inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast. Cooler on Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s. /13

SHORT THROUGH EXTENDED TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

As the upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast Friday evening moves off, an upper ridge over the Southern Plains shifts east over the Southeast ahead of a eastward moving closed low over the Desert Southwest. Guidance is advertising several rounds of shortwave energy moving over the Southeast beginning Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday before the positively tilted upper low passes north of the forecast area. The cold front which stalled over the Gulf of Mexico moves north as a warm front over the Southeast, with the latest guidance advertising the front remaining south of the I-20 corridor through Wednesday, before moving back south of the coast Wednesday night.

Taking a closer look at weather for the period, south of the warm front, guidance is advertising SBCapes rising into the 2000-3000J/kg range. Add in good wind shear (Bulk wind shear topping out between 50 and 60kts Monday night into Tuesday), and an increased risk of severe weather returns to the forecast area. In addition to possible strong to severe storms, will need to monitor for water issues, with the good overrunning of the warm front, training cells, and a longer period of rain. Guidance has been inconsistent with the placement and strength of the ingredients the last two days, will need to monitor for now.

Temperatures remain at or below seasonal norms through most of this portion of the forecast. High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday drop into the mid 70s to around 80 for Monday, then rise into the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to around 60 Friday and Saturday nights gradually rise into the low 60s to near 70 for Tuesday night.
/16


MARINE
Issued at 359 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 74 88 69 85 59 83 61 80 / 10 20 50 50 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 76 86 72 82 63 82 64 79 / 10 20 50 60 0 0 0 10 Destin 76 84 74 82 65 81 66 80 / 10 20 40 60 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 71 88 68 85 55 82 56 82 / 10 50 70 60 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 71 90 66 83 55 81 56 80 / 20 40 70 30 0 0 0 10 Camden 71 88 65 82 55 79 55 80 / 20 60 70 40 0 0 0 0 Crestview 71 89 69 85 57 83 55 82 / 10 20 50 70 0 0 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Wed -- 05:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:03 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:45 PM CDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Wed -- 12:22 AM CDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:45 PM CDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:30 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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