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GMZ655 Expires:202312061015;;962854 Fzus54 Kmob 052124 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 324 pm cst Tue dec 5 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-061015- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 324 pm cst Tue dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from midnight cst tonight through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet late. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 3 seconds.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet, subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 324 Pm Cst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis..A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the day today. Strong northerly flow will briefly develop tonight though Wednesday morning in the wake of a cold front, before decreasing and turning easterly to southeasterly late in the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 052330 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light westerly to northwesterly winds this evening will become more northerly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots by midnight in the wake of a cold front. Some north-northwesterly wind shear of around 30-40 knots may be possible at around 2000 feet for interior regions overnight tonight. At this time LLWS was excluded from the latest TAFs, but we will continue to monitor. /22

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Thursday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A large upper-level trough digging over the eastern half of the US will slowly push into the Atlantic through the period. In its wake, upper ridging, currently building over the Rockies, will slide eastward and pass overhead on Thursday. Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through Wednesday night before turning zonal and eventually southwesterly as the ridge passes over our area. At the surface, a cold front associated with the upper trough will sweep through the area tonight. Behind it, high pressure will build in from the north, helping to advect in another re-enforcing cool/dry airmass. With PWATs plummeting to around 0.25 to 0.5 inches, no rain is expected through the period.
Highs for Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the upper 30s inland to low 40s along the coast. Wednesday night will feature our coldest temperatures this week, thanks to clear skies and calm winds. Lows will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s inland and mid to upper 30s along the coast. With small T/Td spreads that night at the surface, most areas north of I-10 will likely see a widespread frost overnight. Temperatures start to moderate Thursday night as the high pushes to our east and winds turn onshore. A Low Risk of rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

An upper-level longwave trough digging into the Southern Plains Friday and Saturday will begin to eject northeastward Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface, an associated low pressure system looks to develop over Oklahoma Friday night and quickly lifts towards the Great Lakes region by Saturday night. As it lifts northeastward, a trailing cold front will approach and sweep through our local area Saturday night, ushering in a much cooler/drier air mass in its wake.

Out ahead of the upper trough and cold front, warm air advection will set up across the region thanks to southwesterly flow aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface. A weak, lead shortwave, embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft, should push overhead Friday evening/night, helping to increase rain chances for Friday night and especially into Saturday. By Saturday evening/night, very high rain chances are in place as the front approaches and moves through the area. We will have to continue to monitor trends over the upcoming days for any potential severe weather as this system moves through. Although we will have plenty of moisture and shear across the area, instability seems rather meager at this time. In addition, the best forcing at this time, similar to previous events over the past few weeks, looks to remain just to our north and west. That being said, subtle shifts in the speed and progression of the trough, along with the degree of destabilization, will likely be the determining factors for the overall severe risk as the front pushes through the area.

We quickly dry out in the wake of the front on Sunday and cool/dry conditions are anticipated for the remainder of the period. /96

MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

A light to moderate offshore flow will prevail through the remainder of the day today. Strong northerly flow is expected to briefly develop tonight in the wake of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from midnight tonight through noon Wednesday for Mobile Bay, the MS Sound, and our local Gulf waters out 60 NM for sustained winds of around 20-25 knots. Winds could occasionally gust to around 30 knots, especially over the Gulf.
Winds will relax and turn more easterly to southeasterly late in the week. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 39 58 33 60 46 69 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 60 Pensacola 43 58 38 59 49 67 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Destin 46 59 40 60 50 67 61 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Evergreen 37 57 30 61 37 66 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Waynesboro 36 56 29 60 39 69 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 70 Camden 36 55 29 59 37 66 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Crestview 38 58 30 60 37 66 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 60

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Tue -- 02:35 AM CST     0.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:29 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:57 PM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
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