Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Destin, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:10PM Monday October 21, 2019 2:09 AM CDT (07:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:55PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201910211530;;027685 Fzus54 Kmob 210331 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 1031 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-211530- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1031 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Wednesday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Thursday..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1031 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 20 2019
Synopsis..Areas of fog will be possible late tonight mainly over inland bays and sounds. A cold front approaches from the northwest Monday. Ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms can be expected mostly in the form of a squall line moving across the marine area Monday evening. As the front sinks southward, a moderate to strong northerly flow sets up Tuesday through Wednesday. A moderate easterly flow will develop late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday as a broad surface ridge of high pressure builds along the eastern seaboard.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Destin, FL
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location: 30.4, -86.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 210516 aab
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
1216 am cdt Mon oct 21 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
06z issuance... ExpectVFR conditions through 21.10z across the
mobile metro area, and through 21.13z across the pensacola metro
area, followed by mainly MVFR conditions through the remainder of
the forecast. Low ceilings and light fog will be possible mostly
from 21.09z through 21.13z. Added a tempo group toward the end of
the forecast cycle as a line of thunderstorms sweeps through the
area. Winds will become mostly southeast at 5 knots overnight,
increasing to 5 to 10 knots after 21.15z. 22

Prev discussion issued 645 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
discussion... Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation...

00z issuance... ExpectVFR conditions through 21.06z across the
mobile metro area, and through 21.15z across the pensacola metro
area, followed by mainly MVFR conditions through the remainder
of the forecast. Low ceilings and light fog will be possible
mostly from 21.09z through 21.13z. Winds will become mostly
southeast at 5 knots this evening, increasing to 5 to 10 knots
after 21.15z. 22
prev discussion... Issued 349 pm cdt Sun oct 20 2019
near term now through Monday ... For tonight, with better
moisture advection from the south in the lower levels of the
boundary layer combined with a weak inversion setting up at around
400 to 500 ft above the surface will likely see more fog
development late this evening and overnight becoming dense at
times in some areas near sunrise. Low clouds and fog will lift a
an hour or two after sunrise on Mon as better mixing sets up ahead
of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Most of the
model guidance does show the best coverage of showers and
thunderstorms moving into most parts of southeast ms by mid
afternoon then spreading further east over most western and
northern sections of the forecast area through late afternoon. As
mentioned earlier there is marginal threat for strong to severe
weather with this pattern tomorrow occurring mainly with bowing
segments or qlcs pattern along a developing squall line that moves
quickly over the area Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Model
soundings continue to show limited instability well ahead of the
front on Mon with the best CAPE occurring just ahead of the squall
line beginning to the west by mid afternoon. The main upper
system does begin to occlude as it moves over the northern gulf
states late mon, also limiting the threat for severe weather. As a
result the main threat will be damaging straight line winds with
the bowing segments along the line with maybe an few short live
bookend vortices near bowing segments.

Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal norms through mon
with lows ranging from the middle 60s for most inland areas tonight
and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Highs Mon will range
from the upper 70s to lower 80s for all locations in the forecast
area. 32 ee
short term Monday night through Wednesday night ... A large
upper trof over the central states begins to slowly advance into
the eastern states through Tuesday morning. The upper trof
meanwhile takes on an initially slight negative tilt over the mid
mississippi and ohio river valley area which becomes increasingly
pronounced through Wednesday morning as the upper trof swings into
the northeast states. This is in response to a 120-140 knot jet
streak located mainly within the eastern portions of the trof. A
large occluded surface low will be located near the western great
lakes at the beginning of the period and will have brought a cold
front to near the lower mississippi river valley by early Monday
evening (00z Tuesday). The cold front advances eastward through
the forecast area Monday night followed by a dome of cool high
pressure building into the region through Tuesday morning while
the large occluded surface low moves slowly northward into canada.

The occluded nature of the surface low and the fact that the
negative tilt action of the upper trof takes place well north of
the region would typically leave the forecast area within a
weakening shear regime. However, a series of southern stream
shortwaves embedded within the base of the upper trof will move
across the area ahead of the approaching front. While 0-1 km
helicity values continue to be near 100 m2 s2, these shortwaves
contribute to 0-6 km bulk shear values of 45-50 knots which is a
concern. MLCAPE values ahead of the front depend on the timing of
the shortwaves and could range from meager values less than 50
j kg over interior areas to 300 j kg at the coast or values as
high as 500 j kg over interior areas and possibly up to 1000 j kg
at the coast.

Considering this, it's no surprise that convection allowing
models (cams) are not in good agreement on how much convective
development can be expected in response to the shortwaves or even
along the approaching cold front. Despite the range in mlcape
values, there is at least general agreement on higher values over
the southern portion of the area and some cams support stronger
convection in this portion. SPC has maintained a marginal risk for
the entire area which includes a slight risk over a portion of
wayne county. While spc's assessment covers the period from Monday
into Monday night, for the Monday night period the potential for
strong to possibly severe storm development looks to be mainly
over the southern portion of the area and also mainly during the
evening hours. Will have categorical pops Monday night for the
frontal passage with slight chance to chance pops east of i-65 for
lingering precip in the wake of the front. Dry conditions
otherwise are expected through Wednesday night. Highs on Tuesday
and Wednesday range from around 70 well inland to the mid 70s
closer to the coast. Lows Monday night will be in the lower 50s
to around 60 west of i-65 with lower to upper 60s east of i-65.

Lows Tuesday night will be much cooler and range from the mid to
upper 40s inland to the lower mid 50s at the coast. Lows
Wednesday night moderate slightly and generally range from the
upper 40s well inland to the upper 50s at the coast. A high risk
of rip currents continues through Tuesday evening after which a
moderate risk of rip currents is expected. 29
long term Thursday through Sunday ... In the wake of the negative
tilted upper trof which will have lifted northward away from the
northeast states, another large upper trof develops over the
central states on Thursday. This next upper trof is expected to
weaken while advancing into the eastern states through Saturday
with modest upper level ridging building over the region on
Sunday. An associated surface low well to the north brings another
cold front from the plains to the lower mississippi river valley
on Thursday which moves slowly through the forecast area Thursday
night into Friday. A series of shortwaves move across the area
while the front makes it's slow eastward progression, a pattern
which supports likely to categorical pops mainly from Thursday
night into Friday. There may also be a potential for locally heavy
rainfall over the area which will need to be monitored. It's
conceivable that the upper trof may cut off an upper low over the
south central states on Friday which then ejects off across the
northeast states on Sunday. While would normally expect dry
conditions over the forecast area in the wake of the front, this
potential feature could lead to a surface low developing near the
northwest gulf which moves northward along the mississippi river
valley. For this possibility, will have chance pops over the area
on Saturday then slight chance pops over a portion of the area on
Sunday. 29
marine... A light southeast to southerly flow late this afternoon
will slowly build through Monday evening ahead of a cold front
approaching from the northwest. The cold front will move across the
marine area late Monday night and early Tuesday leading to a
moderate to strong northerly flow Tuesday through Wednesday. Ahead
of the front scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected mostly in the form of a squall line moving across the
marine area early Monday evening. A moderate easterly flow will
develop late Wednesday night and continue through Thursday as a
broad surface ridge of high pressure builds along the eastern
seaboard. Areas of fog will be possible late tonight mainly over
inland bays and sounds well north of the gulf coast. 32 ee

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Tuesday evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCBF1 36 mi57 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 80°F1014.4 hPa
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 37 mi51 min S 6 G 8 76°F 76°F1013.3 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi51 min ENE 5.1 G 6 78°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 60 mi39 min SSE 14 G 18 79°F 80°F1013.1 hPa73°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL2 mi76 minN 07.00 miFair68°F66°F93%1013.6 hPa
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL6 mi73 minE 310.00 miFair67°F65°F94%1014.2 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL9 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F92%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDTS

Wind History from DTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN4N4N6N6N5Calm3S4S44S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4
1 day agoNE9
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2 days agoNE5NE7NE9E8NE8E8E6E10E7E7E7NE8NE8NE10E9
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Tide / Current Tables for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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East Pass (Destin)
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Mon -- 03:34 AM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:41 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Mon -- 01:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:03 PM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.80.80.80.70.70.60.50.40.40.30.20.10.10000.10.20.20.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.