Mary Esther, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mary Esther, FL

June 16, 2024 7:51 AM CDT (12:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM
Moonrise 3:00 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202406162115;;105398 Fzus54 Kmob 160812 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 312 am cdt Sun jun 16 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-162115- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 312 am cdt Sun jun 16 2024

Today - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 9 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Showers with Thunderstorms likely.

Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 6 seconds. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.

Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.

Tuesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 7 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 7 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet. Wave detail: southeast 8 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 7 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Wave detail: southeast 7 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Thursday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 312 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2024

Synopsis - A light to moderate southeasterly flow will persist through the remainder of the weekend. A moderate to strong east to southeasterly flow is anticipated Monday through Wednesday, along with building seas. Small craft advisories may become necessary during the early to middle part of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mary Esther, FL
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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 161134 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR to MVFR cigs will persist throughout the forecast as scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. Temporary reductions in visibilities could occur mainly along the coast this morning and then inland this afternoon.
Showers should diminish overnight with VFR conditions returning.
Winds will remain light around 10 knots out of the southeast.
BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The summer rainy season is about to kick it off this week as a rather active pattern sets up as early as this morning. The high pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America.
This semi-persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning grounds for some early season tropical mischief. The good news is for our area that while a few weak systems could be possible in the coming weeks there are no signs that any of these areas of interest will impact us directly. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy week.
Rain chances will begin this morning and only increase through the period. Current radar shows showers already developing over the marine waters and those are only expected to expand in coverage later this morning as they approach the coast. The best rain chances today will be along the coast and then expanding across southwestern Alabama and into southeastern Mississippi. Areas more east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in nature given the proximity to the upper ridge. Rain chances relax during the overnight hours as the first wave pushes through.

By Monday the next wave will enter the area bringing widely scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for rain will continue to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing, dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now.
While some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones. Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge centered mostly over the easternmost states builds into the forecast region which allows for progressively drier air to flow into much of the area, which tempers pops compared to the NEAR TERM period. Precipitable water values of initially around 2 inches Monday evening gradually trend through Tuesday night to 1.35-1.5 inches over much of the area, except for portions of southeast Mississippi and coastal Alabama which manage to hang on to the best deep layer moisture. A combination of a surface ridge strengthening over the mid Atlantic coast into the southeast states along with a western Gulf system tends to promote a mainly easterly flow over interior areas with an east to southeast flow near the coast. This sets up a modest low level convergent zone near the coast which along with a modest sea breeze aids in precipitation development. For Monday night and Tuesday night, will have slight chance to chance pops near the coast. For Tuesday, with daytime heating aiding development, have gone with chance pops for roughly the southern half of the area with lesser pops further inland. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory are in effect through the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper ridge over the region is deflected away from the area Thursday into Friday by an easterly wave which advances from near the Florida peninsula to across the eastern half of the Gulf along with the adjacent coastal areas. The sea breeze will support chance pops over much of the coastal counties and extreme southeast Mississippi on Wednesday and Thursday while further inland dry conditions are expected. It's possible that a surface low will develop with the easterly wave and progress across the region on Friday, but even if this does not occur the convective environment will become more favorable with the departure of the upper ridge along with much better deep layer moisture flowing into the area. For now have gone with chance to good chance pops for much of the area on Friday, but there is the potential for higher rain chances depending on how the pattern plays out. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the area on Saturday and have opted for chance to likely pops. A High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in effect until 7 am Thursday morning. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A light to moderate southeasterly flow will established today and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf.
Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next week. Small craft will need to exercise caution by Monday and conditions will likely exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria by the middle of the week. Conditions will also need to be monitored for potential gale conditions as the low strengthens. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the forecast.
BB/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 88 74 88 74 88 75 90 73 / 80 40 70 30 40 30 40 20 Pensacola 89 77 90 77 89 77 90 75 / 80 40 70 40 40 40 40 30 Destin 87 77 90 77 90 78 91 75 / 70 30 60 40 40 30 30 30 Evergreen 93 72 92 71 91 71 92 69 / 60 20 40 10 20 10 10 0 Waynesboro 93 72 89 71 89 71 91 70 / 60 30 70 10 20 10 20 10 Camden 94 73 93 71 90 72 91 70 / 40 20 40 10 10 10 10 0 Crestview 92 72 93 71 93 72 93 69 / 70 20 40 20 30 20 20 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 25 mi52 minSSE 8G11 83°F 87°F29.98
PCBF1 47 mi52 minE 6G8 81°F 85°F29.99
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 50 mi32 minSSE 16G18 84°F 85°F3 ft29.9779°F
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 59 mi52 minE 5.1G6


Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
   
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Harris
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Sun -- 01:54 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM CDT     1.13 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:39 PM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet
12
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0.5
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0.5
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0.6
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0.6
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0.7
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0.8
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0.9
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1
8
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1
9
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1.1
10
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1.1
11
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1.1
12
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1.1
1
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1
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0.9
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0.8
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0.7
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0.5
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0.4
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0.3
8
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0.3
9
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0.3
10
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0.3
11
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0.3


Tide / Current for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet


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Northwest Florida,




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