Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:17 PM Moonrise 2:49 PM   Moonset 3:41 AM

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GMZ655 Expires:202404181530;;931096 Fzus54 Kmob 180218 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 918 pm cdt Wed apr 17 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-181530- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 918 pm cdt Wed apr 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Friday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Saturday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 918 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 17 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through Saturday with a slightly stronger offshore flow developing on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves offshore by Sunday night with offshore developing in its wake for early next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 180447 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1147 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A general lowering of ceilings to IFR levels is expected overnight, but the particular timing is uncertain. As of discussion time, ceilings range from IFR to VFR across the region. Overall, expect IFR ceilings to become prevalent by 09z and persist through 12-14z. What is more uncertain is how much fog will develop overnight. Abundant high levels suggest that low ceilings will be prevalent over areas of fog, however, some IFR fog is possible across the region. Conditions will improve to VFR levels by mid to late Thursday morning with another round of low ceilings/fog redeveloping near or just after 06z Friday. Winds will remain light out of the south, increasing to around 10 kt at times during the day on Thursday. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 924 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

New UPDATE

UPDATE...

Issued at 919 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The overall forecast is in good shape. Extensive high level clouds continue to stream across the region and will continue to do so through the overnight hours. The main forecast challenge for tonight is the potential for fog development. Hi-res guidance is showing mixed signals on this. While boundary level moisture is high (dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s) and supports fog development, the presence of the high level clouds will likely preclude fog from becoming too widespread or dense. Will maintain a mention of patchy fog across the area overnight.

We also slightly increased winds over the marine area for the rest of the evening based on observations. 34/JFB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

New AVIATION

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions are being reported at issuance time. As the evening progresses, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR or IFR. These low clouds will stick through tonight, potentially lowering further, to LIFR, overnight tonight. Additionally, patchy fog may also develop during the early morning hours, reducing visibilities down to MVFR to IFR. Spotty instances of dense fog cannot be ruled out. Fog should dissipate and ceilings should begin to lift a little after sunrise, with VFR conditions returning by the late morning hours. Light southerly winds are expected throughout the period. /96

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly dry and warm weather continues to prevail through Thursday for the forecast area. Extensive cloud cover today has kept high temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s, and conditions may be similar on Thursday (although maybe not quite as opaque). As such, we may see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Thursday than today, with more widespread low to mid 80s possible than today. A general zonal flow aloft today with a couple weak shortwaves rounding the periphery of the upper ridge located over the northern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. This should help to maintain the somewhat increased cloud cover across the area for the remainder of the near term period. As was the case today, an isolated shower or storm remains possible over far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi into far interior southwestern Alabama again on Thursday afternoon, but for no still no PoPs in the near term forecast. Some patchy late night fog will again be possible tonight, especially over the southern half of the forecast area, some locally dense in a few locations but not expecting widespread dense fog. Lows tonight should primarily be in the mid 60s across the region. A moderate risk of rip currents remains across AL/FL beaches through Thursday, but although wind intensity doesn't pick up all that much, the prolonged nature of the onshore flow may require an upgrade to a HIGH Risk for late week, as some locations are beginning to report increased rip current activity today. DS/12

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Deep layer westerly flow is expected to setup through the weekend as several subtle shortwaves progress across the deep south. At the surface there will be a stalled boundary somewhere across the deep south. Deep moisture will be well in place across areas south of stalled boundary. Several rounds of scattered storms will be possible mainly Saturday and Sunday as two of the stronger shortwaves moves across the area. Sunday looks to be the stronger of the two systems and the furthest south thus expect rain chances to be the highest on Sunday. After the weekend, more northwesterly flow will move in once again drying us out through the remainder of the week as the front pushes offshore. Expect temperatures to increase through Saturday with highs likely in the mid to upper 80s across the area. The only thing keeping us from the 90s will likely be the increasing cloud cover. Lows will also float in the mid 60s before we cool off momentarily behind the boundary.
Patchy fog will also be possible Thursday night and potentially Friday night. BB/03

MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through Saturday with a slightly stronger offshore flow developing on Sunday before shifting to offshore early next week. At this time, no especially hazardous conditions are anticipated for small craft through Monday. DS/12

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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