Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mary Esther, FL

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Cool and dry to start the weekend; however, things will quickly switch as we head into Sunday and Sunday night as our next system approaches from the west. Shortwave ridging will continue to build over the central US today and begin to slide eastward with time.
This push east will be in response to an upper level cutoff low over the four corners region that will slowly begin to move eastward and will be the first system of an active start to next week. Prior to that system dry northwesterly flow will gradually become more zonal over the weekend. This will likely keep us dry through today and into Saturday morning; however, moisture is expected to steadily increase with time in preparation for that system. Rain will begin to creep into the forecast from the west late Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night with most of the rain likely focused over the western half of the area. Don't worry everyone will have plenty of opportunity for rain later in the week as this is just the start of multiple rounds. Temperatures will start the weekend off chilly but quickly rebound as moisture surges back northward. We will start the day in the 20s and 30s this morning and highs will only top out in the 50s today. By Saturday night temps wont cool off as much likely dropping into the 40s but highs Sunday will likely climb into the mid to upper 60s as the warming trend continues into early next week. Rip currents will likely remain low risk trough the weekend but will start to come up with more persistent onshore flow by the start of next week. BB/03

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

As the upper-level support from a weakening shortwave over the Tennessee Valley region early Monday quickly lifts away from the local area a surface boundary will begin losing momentum and will likely stall somewhere over the local region on Monday (probably just west of our forecast area) and then remain generally over the same area through Tuesday night as mid and upper level southwesterly flow will be parallel to this surface boundary. Multiple shortwaves will continue to move along this stalled boundary in the southwesterly flow aloft, bringing several rounds of rain to the area Monday through Tuesday night as an amplifying longwave trough over the central US quickly dives southeastward. This amplifying trough will finally push the cold front through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with rains gradually ending from west to east across the area and a much colder/drier airmass begins to build into the region by Wednesday afternoon and continues through the remainder of the period. Throughout the Monday through Tuesday night timeframe, instability values appear to remain quite low due to limited diurnal heating and generally poor lapse rates. This should help to keep storms sub-severe through the period. The primary concern will be the multiple rounds of rainfall. Most of this rainfall will be beneficial due to the ongoing drought across the area, however, with the possibility of localized swaths of heavy rainfall rates (due to the high PWAT values and the stalled surface boundary), a few instances of flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in our urban/poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will be mild for the first half of the period, with highs on Monday and Tuesday topping out mainly in the low to mid 70s (but a few upper 60s possible over interior-most zones). After the front passes late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, highs will drop into the low to mid 50s for most locations Wednesday and Thursday, before rebounding slightly (to the upper 50s and lower 60s) on Friday. Lows Monday night will generally range from the upper 50s to mid 60s from north-south across the area and then cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night. Should be much colder once again Wednesday and Thursday nights lows dropping into the the 20s and 30s for most of the area, with maybe a few lower 40s along the coast. DS/12

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 44 69 60 71 60 73 41 54 / 0 10 40 80 90 90 60 20 Pensacola 48 69 63 73 65 74 44 55 / 0 0 20 60 80 90 80 30 Destin 51 68 64 76 66 75 49 59 / 0 0 10 50 80 90 90 30 Evergreen 38 65 54 72 59 72 41 52 / 0 10 40 80 90 100 70 20 Waynesboro 40 65 55 70 58 70 36 51 / 10 30 70 90 90 80 40 10 Camden 38 64 53 69 58 68 37 50 / 0 20 70 90 90 90 60 10 Crestview 38 68 55 75 61 74 43 56 / 0 0 20 60 80 90 80 30

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.