Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gulf Hills, MS

SHORT TERM
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Not a lot of difference in fcast parameters through Saturday.
Maybe an isolated shower or two possibly with one or two cracks of thunder. But, overall warm and dry. The cold front currently, as of this writing, from International Falls Minnesota into South Dakota into the panhandle of Nebraska then into Colorado will be the front that moves through here starting Saturday evening. The front will have a line of sh/ts along with it while a new pulse will move over the frontal interface helping to keep sh/ts developing as it moves into our area. The front outruns the short wave causing all of this to become elevated as it moves through.
And, since it loses its most unstable flow of air with time, the area of sh/ts will slowly decay and will be all but gone by midday Sunday. This is due to the high behind the front moving in faster than the short wave can kick out(basically bridging the front).
Severe wx is not expected with this since it will be elevated, but it will give us some much needed rainfall. Some moderate rain north with more light to moderate as it reaches the southern third of the area.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Overall, models remain in decent agreement on the overall upper level pattern impacting the region through the extended period.
Initially from Sunday night through Tuesday night, the combination of a passing H5 shortwave ridge axis and low to mid level ridging centered directly over the region will keep dry air and very stable conditions in place. The end result will be low humidity and limited cloud development each day. At most, some fair weather cumulus development beneath an elevated inversion around 700mb can be expected each day. As the drier air mixes out on Monday afternoon, relative humidity will fall to 25 to 30 percent in southern Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana to the north of I-12. Winds still look to remain just below red flag criteria, but an elevated fire danger risk will still be in place for Monday. Temperatures will range a good 25 to 30 degrees each day with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s Sunday night before climbing into the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. Temperatures will modify slightly for Monday night and Tuesday night as well as during the day on Tuesday with lows in the 50s and highs rising closer to 80.

Another shortwave ridge will intensify from Wednesday into Thursday over the southern Plains, and this will help to produce some mild subsidence and warming aloft across the region. However, a deep plume of Gulf moisture will feed into the Sabine River Valley on Wednesday as a mid-level strengthens over the southeast CONUS.
Decent mid-level convergence will also take place in east Texas and western Louisiana on Wednesday and a band of heavier rainfall will likely set up in that area. However, moisture will moisture and forcing will both remain more limited over our forecast area on Wednesday, and this will greatly limit convective potential due to the warming aloft and weaker mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE will only manage to rise to around 300 to 400 J/KG during peak heating hours on Wednesday. At most, some very isolated light rain showers will develop beneath the capping inversion for areas closer to the Atchafalaya River where moisture will be greatest. By Thursday, the influence of the upper level ridge will grow as it expands eastward from the plains. Despite continued moisture advection into the area in the low to mid-levels, the increased subsidence from the upper level ridge will effectively suppress most convective potential as lapse rates in the mid-levels weaken even further and SBCAPE falls to 100 J/KG or less. The end result will be some limited cumulus development and possibly an isolated and very short-lived light rain shower with any clouds that manage to climb to around 10k feet.
Otherwise, a dry forecast is in the cards for the middle of next week. Temperatures will also continue to warm as the influence of the ridge increases with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s each day and lows only dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A few terminals, mainly BTR and MCB, could have MVFR to IFR cigs and vis until a few hours after sunrise today. Otherwise, the remainder of the day will be VFR for all. Most of tonight will be VFR, but as sunrise approaches, a north south tier of cigs will be shown.
Bascially, MCB should be IFR with BTR at MVFR and the southern half of the area with VFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure from the gulf into the Atlantic will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern gulf through Saturday. A cold front is expected to move through the gulf bringing northerly winds Sunday into early next week where hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories.
Northeast winds will shift to east into Tuesday but remain elevated.
Wednesday, winds will shift to a more SE direction and ease a bit to around 10-15 kt, possibly remaining that way for the remainder of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.