NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KEWX 012330 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 530 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: Regional observations reveal a busy surface pattern early this afternoon. Having passed through the region last evening & overnight, yesterday's front is stalled from Brownsville to near the Port O'Connor Gulf coast, prior to weaving east toward the Mississippi River Delta. A secondary surface boundary has been analyzed from the Sabine Basin northeast toward the AR-LA border.
Isentropic ascent is ongoing along/north of the Brownsville-Port O'Connor surface front, leading to partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies east of I-35 in our area. The Sabine Basin surface front becomes poorly defined along its southwestern flank as it approaches our eastern zones, thanks in large part to a ridge of post-frontal high pressure currently extending from western Hill Country north into the Edwards Plateau. The aforementioned area of post-frontal high pressure is forecast to become the dominant surface feature during the short term period, leading to the establishment of northwest surface flow across South-Central Texas by Saturday afternoon & evening. Said surface winds will allow the dry/continental air mass currently situated over the TX High Plains to advect into the region, particularly overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning.
Apart from a few isolated showers/thunderstorms over the far east this afternoon, a precip-free forecast thus prevails during the short term period.

This Afternoon: Expect partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions to continue along/east of I-35. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out along/east of US-77 with isentropic ascent/moisture transport ongoing immediately off the surface. The majority of the region will otherwise remain dry, with high temps ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s across the east to the mid/upper 70s across the west.

Tonight: Anticipate broken mid-upper level cloud cover to move in from the west following midnight. The afternoon update shows low temperatures in the mid-upper 40s across most of the area, though minimums in the lower 50s are more likely over the Coastal Plains and southwest of the San Antonio metro. Some patchy fog is possible approaching daybreak over far southern zones, though coverage is not expected to be as widespread as this morning.

Saturday & Saturday Night: Post-frontal high pressure will become established as the primary surface feature locally. This will result in a northwesterly wind shift across the area by Saturday afternoon.
The northwest winds will bring noticeably drier air into the region, with dew points falling into the 20s and 30s in most spots by predawn Sunday & the conclusion of the short term period.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Overall, we should see dry weather continue through the long term portion of the forecast. In addition, temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the upcoming work week with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

On Sunday, we will see a weak Pacific front move in from the west, with the stronger push of dry air behind the front initially limited to the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
Across these areas, we will see some elevated fire weather conditions in the afternoon hours with minimum humidity levels down to near 20 percent and west/northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph. The dry air gradually moves eastward Sunday night as weak high pressure builds in from the west. Another weak cold front is expected to gradually move into the area on Monday and high temperatures should manage to drop a few degrees. However, we still expect above normal warmth to continue. Weak surface high pressure remains over the region on Tuesday as temperatures inch upward a few degrees.
Southerly flow resumes across the region on Wednesday as high pressure shifts eastward and lee-side troughing takes place over the plains of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. This pattern will yield more above normal highs along with overnight lows also trending upward as we head into Thursday and Friday. We will also see increased cloud cover as low-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves back into the region. In addition, increasing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper low will also bring an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

VFR flying conditions prevail at the TAF sites tonight through Saturday night. FEW-SCT MVFR level clouds may briefly approach the I-35 sites early to mid morning, however expect any CIGs to remain well SE of the sites. Light winds around 5 KTs tonight into morning with prevailing NE-N at the I-35 sites and E-SE at KDRT. Winds become NW late morning into early afternoon increasing to 10 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 22 KTs at KDRT and 5 to 11 KTs at the I-35 sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 47 73 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 76 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 46 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 50 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 44 73 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 48 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 47 74 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 49 70 47 72 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 51 76 48 75 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Central Texas,