Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lexington, TX

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Afternoon radar imagery shows some showers developing near the coastal plains region. With continued heating, some of this activity is expected may drift northward into the I-35 corridor. Some of the hi-res models show this scenario and an earlier update to the forecast was made to increase rain chances slightly for areas mainly along and east of I-35 through early evening. The other area that will need to be monitored for convection will be out west across the Rio Grande plains into the southern Edwards Plateau. Cu is already developing across the Trans Pecos southward into the Serranias del Burro mountains and with noted instability on recent SPC mesoanalysis, this area will likely see continued convection this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity may move eastward into the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau during the late afternoon and evening hours. For the remainder of the evening into the overnight hours, there are differing solutions noted among the hi-res models. Current thinking is there will be a complex of storms move eastward, with low confidence as to where the more organized convection will occur. Suspect the west central Texas area may see an MCS roll through, with perhaps some of this activity clipping part of the Hill Country. The latest SPC outlook shows little change, with Val Verde and far northwestern Edwards county in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and the Hill Country in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) over the Hill Country. Rain chances tomorrow will be largely dominated by what occurs overnight. For now, we have opted to trend a little below the NBM and show mainly scattered coverage for the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Southwest flow aloft remains entrenched across the region on Thursday and Friday. Additional convection remains possible as the dryline looks to remain active across west Texas. The NBM Pop numbers look too high and have opted to go a little below based on timing differences with shortwave troughs. Rain chances look to decrease for the upcoming weekend into early next week as the subtropical ridge axis builds in from the south. We will keep most areas dry for now along with temperatures remaining above normal. The pattern looks to become a little more active as we head toward the middle of next week with an increase in southwest flow aloft. In addition, a cold front could move in just beyond the current forecast period and add an additional focus for convection.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Cigs along I-35 have trended back to VFR as cloud bases lift with daytime heating. Concerns in the short term will be monitoring convection over the coastal plains to see if this activity is able to move northward to the I-35 corridor. For now, we will continue to mention a PROB30 group for TSRA for the I-35 sites between 22-02Z.
For the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning, low clouds return with MVFR, then IFR cigs. We have opted to remove the PROB30 group for TSRA along I-35 for early tomorrow morning as hi-res models do not show much agreement in placement of possible MCS. We did opt to add a PROB30 for tomorrow afternoon given passing upper disturbance and daytime heating. Out west at DRT, MVFR clouds persist for another 1-2 hours with attention then turning to monitoring convective trends to the west over the higher terrain of northern Mexico. For now, we will keep a PROB30 group for TSRA between 00-06Z.
Low clouds return to DRT after 06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 69 83 69 87 / 30 50 20 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 83 68 86 / 30 50 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 84 69 87 / 30 50 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 67 82 67 84 / 30 50 30 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 87 71 88 / 30 20 40 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 82 67 85 / 30 50 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 68 83 68 86 / 30 40 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 83 68 87 / 30 50 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 84 70 86 / 20 50 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 83 70 86 / 30 50 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 71 85 71 88 / 30 40 20 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.