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FXUS64 KEWX 032326 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 526 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Dry air near the surface and increasing southwesterly winds will result in some elevated fire weather conditions across the southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the Hill Country this afternoon.
Otherwise, early afternoon temperatures are mainly in the 70s as high level clouds remain intact for areas generally along and east of an Eagle Pass to Burnet line.

For tonight, we expect winds to diminish around sunset as high clouds gradually shift eastward. A weak cold front moves in after Midnight, bringing a northerly wind shift to most areas by sunrise Monday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 40s for most areas along and east of I- 35. Plenty of sunshine and dry air should allow highs on Monday to warm to near or just above climatological normals for early December. Low temperatures for Monday night will be fairly similar to what we expect tonight, ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Tuesday morning begins mostly clear and chilly with light winds. Dry NW flow aloft will usher in the mixing of elevated northerly winds and pick up the surface winds out of the north to act as another dry cold front. However, the height fields over TX are building Tuesday to limit the cold air advection potential. The result is another mild fall day and high temps warming to a few degrees above seasonal normals.

Winds turn to the east, then south Tuesday night into midday Wednesday as some pockets of mid and high level cloudiness stroll through in the weak zonal pattern aloft. The slight bump in clouds could leave the high temperature trends flat versus Tuesday despite the change in wind direction. A few lower level clouds are expected to roll up the Rio Grande Valley and could possibly make the MaxT at DRT cooler than the one on Tuesday. The return of low level Gulf moisture Wednesday into Thursday remains shallow while winds above around 6000 ft are dry and westerly. Therefore, the rising dew point and humidity trend going into Friday holds little weight as a stronger cold front looms ahead for Saturday. Deterministic model runs for this more dramatic change in the pattern has some timing issues over the past few days, and Saturday morning timing of the front is more in the middle of the spread on model runs. Eastern counties are expected to have a slight chance to low chance of showers, perhaps isolated storms, but spread in timing makes it appear as if the rain chance will extend into the rest of the weekend. This is mostly and inconsistency among the model blends on the model timing. The likely event will be a short chance of rain, then windy and dry conditions in the wake of the front.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Monday night with a layer of cirrus at FL250 lingering. At the I-35 sites, southwesterly winds of 7 KTs or less turn to northwesterly late tonight, then northerly while increasing to 7 to 14 KTs early Monday morning, then turn to northeasterly-easterly at 7 KTs or less in the afternoon. At KDRT, southeasterly winds 7 KTs or less, shift to northwesterly by midnight, then shift back to southeasterly Monday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 47 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 70 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 41 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 45 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 43 66 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 44 71 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 45 69 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 46 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 48 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 47 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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