Shalimar, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shalimar, FL

June 18, 2024 11:38 PM CDT (04:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:43 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM
Moonrise 4:55 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 909 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024

Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.

Wednesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.

Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.

Friday - East winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 909 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis - A moderate to strong easterly flow and rough seas will bring hazardous conditions to small craft through Thursday. Wind gusts to near gale force will be possible over the gulf marine zones out 20 to 60 nautical miles tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 190001 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 701 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the forecast period.
Some scattered, possibly broken at times, MVFR ceilings could be possible overnight but not expected to be widespread at this time Isolated to possibly scattered showers near the TAF sites near the coast on Wednesday, but will likely be just to the north of the TAF locations along a seabreeze that will be moving inland, so will only carry VCTS in TAFs for now. Easterly winds will remain elevated between 10-15 knots over inland locations and between 15-20 knots near the coast early this evening, decreasing slightly overnight. Easterly winds increase again on Wednesday, and may gust upwards of 25 knots at time especially near the coast. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 350 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A strong upper level ridge of high pressure remains dominant over much of the eastern CONUS this afternoon, while an area of low pressure (currently known as Potential Tropical One) remains located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Much of our forecast area remains located along the southwestern periphery of the upper level ridge axis. Increased subsidence under this feature has kept conditions mostly dry over our region. Isolated rain showers have developed along the immediate coast and into southern portions of southeast MS where a narrow plume of enhanced moisture continues to pivot to the northwest.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to nose southwestward through much of our area tonight before the ridge axis lifts slightly northward on Wednesday. Deep layer moisture will remain a little more enhanced over our Gulf marine zones tonight and potentially into our coastal land zones during the day Wednesday as a weak inverted trough moves from east to west over the Gulf. We expect dry weather conditions to remain prevalent tonight. A few showers could develop near the immediate coast again around daybreak Wednesday, with a few showers and thunderstorms possible in the region of higher moisture across southern portions of our CWA going into the day Wednesday. We will maintain 20-30% POPs on Wednesday across locations mainly along and to the southwest of a New Augusta, MS to Destin line. Low temperatures tonight should otherwise range from around 70 to the lower 70s over interior communities and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the coast. Highs Wednesday are forecast to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

Persistent moderate to strong easterly flow over the Gulf will result in continued dangerous surf conditions with large breakers up to 5-7 feet and deadly rip currents along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Wednesday. No changes are needed to the ongoing High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Upper level high pressure sits over the Southeast through the Short Term, bringing zonal easterly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. A shortwave trough passes south of the northern Gulf Coast the end of the week. Surface low pressure meanders around over eastern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche, ultimately organizing into another surface low by Saturday. This surface low pressure along with a surface ridge off the East coast will create moderate to strong east to southeasterly flow over the Gulf through into the weekend. Highest moisture levels remain over the Gulf through the end of the week, until a more developed surface organizes over the Bay of Campeche. A more southeasterly low level flow develops over the northeast Gulf and Southeast, bringing Gulf moisture inland over the Southeast.
Most guidance is advertising precipitable h20 values rising to around 2" by Saturday morning. Moisture levels over land remaining on the drier side combined with subsidence from the upper ridge will keep best chance of rain south of the northern Gulf Coast through the Short Term, with some bleed over inland near the coast.
Temperatures rise from a more seasonal upper 80s to around 90 Thursday to around 90 to mid 90s on Friday. More modest moisture levels for this time of the year will keep Heat Indices below 100 for each day. Low temperatures ranging from around 70 well inland to around 75 along the coast are expected Wednesday through Friday nights.

Strong swell will continue on area beaches...keeping the Rip Risk at high levels the rest of the week and most of the weekend.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

An upper level trough swings east over the Conus, shifting the upper ridge over the Southeast westward as the trough digs a mean upper trough off the East Coast by the middle of the coming week. The surface ridge over the East Coast shifts south to over the Caribbean, shifting low level flow to south by Monday, then southwesterly by Tuesday. More Gulf moisture flows inland over the Southeast in response. Decreasing upper subsidence and increasing moisture will bring an uptick in rain chances, to daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the coming week. Temperatures drop to a bit above seasonal norms, with the westward shifting upper ridge still maintaining control over western portions of the Southeast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A tight pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure stretching across the western Atlantic/eastern U.S. and Potential Tropical Cyclone One in the southwestern Gulf will result in a continued moderate to strong easterly flow over our marine area through Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for the Gulf zones tonight into Thursday morning, and for Lower Mobile Bay/MS Sound at least through Wednesday afternoon. It is possible easterly winds could re-strengthen over Lower Mobile Bay/MS Sound again Wednesday night so we will need to look at potentially extending the advisory for those two zones in time if confidence in that scenario increases. Winds will gust to near gale force at times over the Gulf marine zones 20-60 nm out. Will monitor trends to see if a Gale Warning might be needed. Seas will remain hazardous between 7-10 ft through Wednesday night before very slowly subsiding through the end of the week. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 75 89 73 91 72 94 72 94 / 10 30 10 30 20 20 10 30 Pensacola 77 91 75 91 75 93 75 92 / 10 20 20 50 30 30 20 40 Destin 78 91 76 91 75 93 77 91 / 10 20 20 50 30 30 20 40 Evergreen 70 91 68 91 68 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 20 0 20 10 30 Waynesboro 71 91 70 91 69 96 69 97 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 0 20 Camden 71 89 69 90 68 93 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 20 Crestview 71 93 70 93 69 96 71 96 / 10 10 0 40 10 30 10 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ631-632.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi50 minE 5.1G8 83°F 29.99
PCBF1 41 mi50 minESE 9.9G13 85°F30.00


Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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Wind History graph: VPS
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Tide / Current for East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
   
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East Pass (Destin)
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Tue -- 02:51 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM CDT     0.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
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Tue -- 02:52 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:31 AM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:55 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:51 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet
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Northwest Florida,




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