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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 957 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet this afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning, then a chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 957 Am Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Strong northwesterly to northerly flow will occur through this evening in the wake of a cold front with gusts to gale force over the gulf. A mostly moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow follows though Thursday night.

FXUS64 KMOB 101818 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1218 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION, NEAR TERM

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

MVFR ceilings will be slow to clear from west to east through the afternoon as strong cold air advection results in layer lifting of a continued moist low level airmass, offsetting large scale isentropic downglide. This will continue to support low cloud develop on the backside of the departing cyclone. Skies will clear at all sites by this evening.

Another aviation hazard today will be strong northwest winds around 15 to 20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. This may result in compression issues when landing at area terminals. Winds should subside this evening to 10 kts or less. /JLH

NEAR TERM
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A highly amplified mid and upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to gradually shift eastward through the day. Latest model guidance, confirmed with trends in satellite imagery, suggests that the strong low level cold advection continues to displace theta surfaces upward at a faster rate than air can move down the theta surfaces in a continued moist low level airmass. This has resulted in low level cloud cover continuing to redevelop along the western side of the cloud shield over the area. Low clouds should eventually scatter out late this afternoon and evening as drier air advects southeastward in the low levels and overall isentropic descent wins out. Skies should become clear overnight in all areas from west to east.

Strong northwest winds will also continue through the evening, sustained between 10-20 mph, with occasional gusts up to 35 mph.
This combined with temperatures in the 50s should make for a chilly day. Small craft advisory conditions will persist over area bays and sounds, with gale conditions over the Gulf waters into tonight. Winds diminish this evening over land areas, but remain strong over the marine areas. The offshore flow will also allow for the rip current risk to gradually lower by tonight.

Clear and cool conditions will continue on Monday as high pressure builds back over the forecast area. /JLH

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 32 58 36 59 39 62 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 36 58 40 59 44 62 50 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 39 60 42 61 48 65 51 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 29 57 30 60 35 62 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 29 57 30 59 33 59 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 28 54 28 57 33 58 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 30 58 31 60 38 63 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636.

Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

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East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:09 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:18 AM CST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:53 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:14 PM CST     0.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:10 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:49 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:53 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:18 PM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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