Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:14PM Thursday October 17, 2019 1:04 PM CDT (18:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:58PMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201910180445;;851113 Fzus54 Kmob 171636 Aaa Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast...updated National Weather Service Mobile Al 1136 Am Cdt Thu Oct 17 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-180445- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 1136 Am Cdt Thu Oct 17 2019
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tonight..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots increasing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas around 2 feet building to around 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Tropical storm conditions possible. East winds 25 to 30 knots becoming northeast 30 to 35 knots. Seas around 6 feet building to around 10 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Tropical storm conditions expected. East winds around 40 knots becoming north around 45 knots. Seas 14 to 16 feet. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Showers likely. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Tropical storm conditions possible. Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots diminishing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 9 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 13 to 18 knots becoming northwest. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 9 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 3 to 8 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 13 to 18 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 1136 Am Cdt Thu Oct 17 2019
Synopsis..Tropical storm conditions will be likely Friday through early Saturday as a potential tropical storm forms over the western gulf and moves northeast towards the florida panhandle Friday through Saturday. Tides possibly up to 2 feet above normal will be likely Friday through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 171115 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
615 am cdt Thu oct 17 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance...VFR conditions under mid upper level clouds moving
over the forecast area. North winds 5 to 10 knots expected through
the period.

16

Prev discussion issued 427 am cdt Thu oct 17 2019
near term now through Thursday night ... Cool northerly flow is expected
though the near term, bringing below seasonal temperatures to start
the forecast. Today, with decreased heating due to abundant mid and
upper level cloud cover added in, high temperatures topping out in
the 70-75 degree range are expected. Tonight, the influx of cooler
air over the forecast area slows as winds decrease, allowing
temperatures to drop to around to below seasonal norms. Low
temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 40s north of highway 84
to mid to upper 50s near coast are expected. 16
short term Friday through Saturday night ... The main focus of
the short-term forecast remains on the potential of a sub-tropical
storm forming over the southwestern gulf of mexico and the
potential impacts to our region. A broad area of low pressure
located over the bay of campeche has increased and become better
organized overnight. Per nhc, environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive to further development and a tropical or
sub-tropical storm is likely to form late today or tonight.

Global spectral models are in general agreement projecting the
upper level trough currently moving eastward over west texas to
essentially interact with the disturbance and rapidly advance it
northeastward over the gulf. This system is likely to become
increasingly baroclinic in nature before reaching the northern
gulf coast and remain a hybrid type system. The models do vary in
the eventual track and timing of the system. With the ECMWF now
projecting the low moving onshore east of destin, florida Saturday
morning and the GFS near port st. Joe, florida. Keep in mind
though there still remains a great deal of uncertainty in the
eventual track as the disturbance has still not developed a low
level center... So inherently there will be more error at this
point in the model tracks, and the model forecast will
undoubtedly change as the system develops. Also, since this system
is expected to evolve into more of hybrid baroclinic system the
rain and wind impacts will possibly extend far from the center.

For now have continued the trend of forecasting increasing
precipitation probabilities, gusty winds near the coast Friday
night through Saturday, high surf and a high risk of rip currents
over the weekend and possible coastal flooding. Of course, impacts
will depend on the eventual track and intensity of the storm.

Please continue to monitor the last forecast through the week for
the latest details. 08
long term Sunday through Wednesday ... As the subtropical system
lifts to the northeast a brief period of dry weather will ensue. A
cold front approaching from the west is expected to bring
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region
Monday and Monday night. Gradual clearing is anticipated Tuesday
as a northerly windflow advects cooler and drier air into the
region. 08
marine... Moderate to at times strong offshore flow will become a
strong easterly tonight into Friday as surface high pressure over
the central plains shifts east to over the tennessee river valley,
and developing low pressure system (invest 96l) moves northeast
towards the northern gulf coast region. Seas are expected to
build to around 5 feet near shore to 10 well off. A small craft
advisory will be issued with this package beginning late tonight.

The ultimate path and strength of 96l may change, with significant
track and speed differences present in the guidance.

Winds and seas settle Saturday night into Sunday as 96l moves inland
and quickly east to over the western atlantic, with surface high
pressure builds over the southeast in its wake. Winds return to
onshore by Sunday, then begin to strengthen into Monday as a cold
front approaches the region. 16

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 4 am Friday to 4 am cdt Sunday for
gmz631-632-650-655-670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi46 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 78°F1016.2 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi52 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 80°F1016.1 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 8
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi34 min ENE 7.8 G 12 66°F 82°F1016.2 hPa53°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi68 minN 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F46°F46%1016.6 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi2.1 hrsNNE 610.00 miOvercast67°F47°F50%1016.4 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi71 minNNE 610.00 miFair68°F48°F49%1016.1 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi71 minN 610.00 miFair67°F46°F47%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW8N11N12N9N5N5N8N9N11N11N7N6N7N5N6N7N8N6N7NE9NE10NE7N5
1 day agoE12E5SE9SE9S7S6W3N6NE7NE4CalmCalmNW6W9W7W7W7NW9NW12NW11NW12NW11NW9W7
2 days agoS9W5CalmCalmN4N6CalmNE5NE5N3N4NE4E3E3NE4E4E4E4E5E5E7E5E7E8

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:28 AM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:28 PM CDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:58 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.71.71.61.51.41.21.10.90.70.50.40.30.30.30.30.40.60.70.911.21.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.