Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 4:47PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:22 PM CST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 4:52AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 353 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday evening through late Thursday night...
Tonight..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Tuesday..South winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Showers likely.
Friday..Northeast winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 353 Pm Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon. Areas of marine fog may restrict visibility tonight over bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters. Winds will then shift from onshore to offshore and increase dramatically across the marine area Tuesday night as a cold front moves east over the region. Moderate to strong easterly flow will then take hold for late week, especially over the open gulf waters. Light to moderate northwest flow will then follow for the beginning of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 092329 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 529 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

DISCUSSION. Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION. 00Z issuance . General VFR conditions were noted across the area at 23Z with an area of low end MVFR CIGS along and west of Mobile Bay. General low end MVFR conditions are expected to become IFR with local LIFR conditions along and just north of the I-10 corridor as southerly winds over the area weakens to around 5 knots or less. Impact to operations at area TAF sites are possible after 06Z as dense fog forms. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise to low end MVFR CIGS and VFR VISBYS. A slowing cold front moves south across the area Tuesday, bringing scattered rain showers along with drops in conditions to the IFR/MVFR juncture. The I-20 corridor is expected to be impacted after 21Z Tuesday afternoon. South winds 5 to 10 knots will become northerly around 10 knots as the cold front moves south across the area. /16

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 410 PM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/ . A CONUS-wide trough is currently present aloft, with a prominent shortwave over the southwest CONUS. This feature is expected to progress eastward over the southern CONUS tomorrow and towards the southeastern CONUS through midweek. A surface cold front will also approach the region late tonight into early tomorrow, increasing showers from the northwest. Model reflectivity shows showers in the form of a line, with scattered showers ahead of the line, that will move from northwest to southeast over the region through midweek. Model soundings for areas near the coast and even further inland show CAPE values generally between 200 and 700 J/kg Tuesday morning and through the afternoon. Therefore, this combined with frontal forcing will lead to the possibility of a few thunderstorms as the line moves through Tuesday morning and through the afternoon.

The other concern will be the potential for fog development tonight into early tomorrow morning due to southerly flow leading to increased warm and moist air. Some of this fog may become dense towards dawn, particularly for Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and areas surrounding. Model guidance from the SREF and HRRR also supports this. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued from tonight through mid-morning tomorrow for Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound areas. Will monitor through the evening to see if the advisory needs to be extended to the land areas as well.

Temperatures will continue to run above seasonal norms tonight, with lows around 60 degrees further inland (SW AL and SE MS) and in the mid 60s along and south of I-65. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s for areas south of I-65, but highs will be lower in the interior SW AL and SE MS due to FROPA. Expecting highs to only reach the mid to upper 60s in this region. /26

SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/ . A cold front associated with an upper trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley pushes offshore Tuesday night, ushering in a cooler and more stable low-level airmass. Aloft, the upper trough lags to the west, with an unsettled southwest flow continuing and showers lingering across the area throughout the day Wednesday. Rain chances end over inland areas Wednesday night as the upper trough departs to the east, though a slight chance continues right along the coast. Another trough moves east across Texas right on the heels of this one, with southwest flow returning aloft by Thursday night as it approaches the lower Mississippi River Valley. Rain chances increase across the entire area Thursday and Thursday night in response to the impinging trough. /49

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/ . The upper trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley continues east across the Deep South during the day Friday. A surface low develops over the northern Gulf as the upper trough takes on a slight negative tilt. The low moves quickly northeast, but in doing so keeps the local area in its northwestern quadrant and firmly entrenched in a cool and stable airmass with daytime temps hovering in the 50s across much of the area. Above the stable surface layer, however, south to southwest flow prevails and enough mid-level instability develops for a chance at some elevated convection mixed in with the showers. Best rain chances Friday and Saturday will be over the eastern half of the area, in closer proximity to the passing surface low and beneath the best region of upper divergence associated with the passing trough. Drier air finally moves into the area Sunday and Monday, with skies clearing and temps climbing back into the 60s. /49

MARINE . Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through tomorrow afternoon. Areas of marine fog may restrict visibility tonight over bays and sounds and adjacent near shore waters. Thus, Dense Fog Advisories may be needed tonight. Winds will then shift from onshore to offshore and increase dramatically across the marine area Tuesday night as a cold front moves east over the region. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory was issued and is in effect from Tuesday night through Friday morning. Moderate to strong easterly flow will then take hold for late week, especially over the open Gulf waters. Light to moderate northwest flow will then follow for the beginning of the weekend. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.

Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>632.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi53 min S 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 62°F1016.7 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi59 min ESE 6 G 6 67°F 66°F1017.6 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi53 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 64°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi33 min S 9.7 G 12 72°F 71°F3 ft1016.5 hPa71°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi2.4 hrsS 510.00 miA Few Clouds67°F63°F89%1016.9 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi87 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F90%1016.1 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi30 minSSE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F64°F81%1016.9 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi30 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F61°F90%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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SW6SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSW6SW11----SW11--S8S5S4S5--S3
1 day agoNE5NE4NE3NE3E4NE4E5E6E5E10E6E10E12E12E8E9E9E10SE10SE14E11E12E10E12
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4N7N6N8N9N7N7N5N7N10N9N7N9--N7N9N7N7N5N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:53 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:13 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:39 PM CST     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.70.50.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.50.60.70.911.21.21.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.