Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shalimar, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:10PM Friday January 17, 2020 10:15 AM CST (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:43AMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202001172145;;074901 Fzus54 Kmob 170939 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 339 Am Cst Fri Jan 17 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-172145- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 339 Am Cst Fri Jan 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Today..East winds 18 to 23 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Tonight..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southeast. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 18 to 23 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Monday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 339 Am Cst Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis..A moderate to strong northeast to easterly wind flow will continue over the marine area through tonight becoming southeast by early Saturday. Winds will ease temporarily Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. A moderate to strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of the front Sunday through early Tuesday then diminish by Tuesday night as a strong surface ridge of high pressure in the wake of the front shifts east. Better rain chance are expected ahead of the front Saturday through early Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shalimar, FL
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location: 30.44, -86.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 171206 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 606 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tonight/. Upper ridge of high pressure stretching from the central Gulf of Mexico to the northern Plains states will shift east to the eastern seaboard through tonight in response to a vigorous short wave trof tracking eastward mostly over the middle part of the country. At the surface high pressure centered mostly over the Great Lakes stretching southward to the northern Gulf states will shift east to the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic through tonight. With this a moderate easterly flow will develop over the forecast area later today and tonight becoming southeast by early Saturday morning in response to a surface cold front approaching from the northwest. Better moisture aloft will continue to spread eastward combined increased lower level moisture from the south leading to better clouds this afternoon and tonight along with isolated to scattered showers mostly over western and coastal sections of the forecast area late tonight and early Sat morning.

Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal norms through tonight. Highs today will climb to the middle 60s for most locations today followed by lows ranging from the lower to middle 50s for most inland areas and the upper 50s along the immediate coast. 32/ee

AVIATION. 12Z issuance . Expect VFR to MVFR cigs through 18.12z. Light showers will be possible mostly after 18.08z. Winds will be northeast at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 kts later this morning gradually shifting east then southeast through 18.12z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 453 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/ . Surface analysis shows a massive 1040+ mb high pressure ridge positioned over the Upper Mid-West with a cold front having settled into the northern Gulf. Latest observations continue to show a steady plume of post- frontal clouds continuing to stream eastward over the deep south. The surface ridge spreads eastward into the Mid-Atlantic Friday with moderate northeast winds Friday morning becoming more east southeasterly through the course of the afternoon. Occasional higher gusts possible given the strength of the ridge axis to the northeast of the local area. Daytime highs in the mid 60s.

Upper ridge axis over the Gulf migrates eastward Friday night with upper level trof pivoting eastward over the MS River Valley. At same time, a strong cold front exits the Plains bringing a return chance of showers into the western zones late. A gradual moderating trend expected in night-time lows. /10

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/ . An upper trof broadens while advancing across the interior eastern states, while an associated surface low brings a strong cold front through the forecast area Saturday night. A series of shortwaves move across the forecast area ahead of the frontal passage, and with increasing deep layer moisture (precipitable water values increasing to near 1.5 inches), this will support categorical pops on Saturday. Likely pops follow for Saturday evening over the eastern portion of the area with chance pops elsewhere, then pops taper off to dry conditions by Sunday morning as a large surface ridge builds into the region in the wake of the front and ushers much cooler and drier air into the region. Instability will be limited on Saturday (MLCAPE values at best 350 J/kg over southeast Mississippi with lesser values elsewhere) so continue to expect general thunderstorm activity. Highs on Saturday range from the mid to upper 60s inland to around 70 over the southern portion of the area, then Sunday will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower 50s well inland to the upper 50s near the coast. Lows Saturday night range from around 40 well inland to around 50 at the coast, then lows Sunday night range from the lower 30s inland to the mid 30s at the coast. Will have a High Risk of rip currents in effect through Sunday afternoon due to a combination of a moderate to strong onshore flow on Saturday with a continuing onshore swell which persists through Sunday then begins to subside. /29

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/ . Dry conditions continue over the area through Wednesday as a dry and cool dome of surface high pressure shifts eastward across the eastern states. The coldest night of the forecast period will be Monday night when lows will be mostly in the mid 20s except for near 30 at the coast. An upper trof amplifies while advancing from the northwest states into the Plains on Thursday, with an associated surface low developing over the central or southern Plains. Modest isentropic lift develops over the forecast area ahead of the Plains system which will support a return of small pops over roughly the eastern half of the area on Thursday. /29

MARINE . A moderate to strong northeast to easterly wind flow will continue over the marine area through tonight in the wake of a cold front that moved over the marine area earlier this evening, becoming southeast by early Sat. Winds will ease temporarily Sat afternoon through early Sat night ahead of another cold front approaching from the northwest. A moderate to strong northerly flow will develop in the wake of the front Sun through early Tue, then diminish by Tue night as a strong surface ridge of high pressure in the wake of the front shifts east. Better rain chance are expected ahead of the front Sat through early Sat night. 32/ee

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ631-632.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 33 mi46 min ESE 6 G 11 63°F 1029.8 hPa
PCBF1 41 mi52 min E 8.9 G 15 62°F 64°F1030 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 53 mi46 min ENE 9.9 G 14 66°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 57 mi26 min E 18 G 23 65°F 65°F5 ft1029.2 hPa53°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Valparaiso / Eglin Air Force Base, FL4 mi80 minE 79.00 miFair62°F37°F40%1030.1 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL5 mi80 minE 1510.00 miFair62°F37°F40%1029.3 hPa
Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport, FL7 mi23 minE 910.00 miFair64°F39°F41%1029.7 hPa
Crestview, Sikes Airport, FL24 mi23 minE 510.00 miFair63°F37°F38%1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVPS

Wind History from VPS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N9N8N8N9N7NE9N10N8N11NE11NE10--NE8NE7NE7NE7NE7NE9NE8E10NE10E7E12
G15
1 day agoS6S7S9S6S5S6S6S6S3S4S4S3S3SW3W3SW4CalmCalmNW3N3N3CalmN4NW4
2 days agoSE9S9SE11S10S9S7SE5E3N13
G19
NE10NE9NE5SE8E5CalmCalmSE4CalmSE4CalmS4S4S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida
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Harris
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:00 AM CST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:01 AM CST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:40 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:09 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:41 PM CST     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.