Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holley, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Convection over the Gulf has been the focus of our attention this evening with the first batch of storms just now reaching the Florida panhandle beaches. Another round of storms is sitting 50+ nautical miles offshore and looks to slide generally northward over the next few hours, likely approaching the coastal communities by roughly 09z. There's been a signal in several of the CAMs over the past 12 hours that convection will also likely begin flaring up somewhere west of I-65 (across the southern tier of counties) between roughly 09-12z with the bulk of the convection developing and sliding into the region by late morning into the afternoon hours. A few strong to severe storms are certainly possible with the storms on Memorial Day, however, flooding is the bigger concern. The recent 00z HRRR probability- matched mean (PMM) for QPF shows a few bullseyes of of 4- 7 inches of rain across portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this afternoon into the early evening hours. The bullseyes have shifted run-to-run, but there's a general trend that somewhere west of I-65 could easily rack up 3+ inches of rain this afternoon and evening.

Furthermore, the main concern over the coming days remains flooding. While we don't anticipate widespread flooding issues, we do anticipate multiple rounds of storms producing very heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. The potential for flooding will be highly dependent on the rainfall rates along with the movement of the storms (slower storms or storms that repeatedly move over the same locations will be problematic).
Storms over the next few days will easily be capable of producing 1-2 inches of rain in a short period of time. Given the significant flooding on Friday in central Mobile County and the very saturated soils, that area in particular will be highly susceptible to additional flash flooding in the coming days.

A wet pattern will persist through the week as the area remains on the western periphery of a ridge sitting over the western Atlantic. Deep onshore flow prevails with PWATs surging to over 2.0 inches at times this week. Multiple subtle shortwaves will ride through the flow aloft, providing ample ascent for the development of showers and storms throughout the week. Heavy rain is the predominant concern, although we cannot rule out a few strong to potentially severe storms with gusty downburst winds each afternoon. For now, we are holding off on a Flood Watch given the low confidence in exactly where these storms might set up across the area. However, a Watch could be on the table at some point if our confidence in locations increases (as we don't want to issue a Watch for the entire area when some locations may not rain much at all).

Beach Forecast - Given the consistent onshore flow signal over the coming days, the risk for rip currents will be HIGH for the Memorial Day holiday through through at least Thursday for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Offshore storms will only act to amplify the surf and rip currents each day. 07/mb

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Widespread showers and storms gradually shift eastward across the area through this evening leaving isolated to scattered convection. Showers and storms are anticipated to increase in coverage again late tonight into Tuesday morning. IFR/MVFR conditions along with gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots diminish this evening, then a southeasterly flow at 5-10 knots resumes Tuesday morning. /29

MARINE
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will persist through the forecast.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through this afternoon, increasing to 3 to 4 feet tonight into midweek. No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. MM/25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 81 72 85 / 50 90 30 60 Pensacola 74 81 74 84 / 60 80 50 40 Destin 75 83 75 84 / 70 70 60 40 Evergreen 70 80 70 85 / 60 90 30 80 Waynesboro 69 81 70 85 / 50 90 30 90 Camden 68 78 69 84 / 60 90 30 80 Crestview 70 82 70 87 / 60 80 50 50

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...None.