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GMZ634 Pensacola Bay System- 924 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 924 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly flow gradually shifts to the east overnight as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow returns on Thursday and will increase late this week as high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.

FXUS64 KMOB 292327 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions continue over the area through Thursday. Calm or light and variable winds tonight will be followed by a southeasterly flow at 5 to 10 knots developing on Thursday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 342 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

A dry zonal flow pattern aloft will become prevalent across our forecast area tonight while surface high pressure gradually shifts eastward across the southeastern U.S. and western Atlantic. High level cloudiness will stream over our region through tonight, but another night of cold temperatures and dry conditions is expected.
Another light freeze will likely impact interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama and interior northwest Florida where lows are forecast to range from 29-32 degrees. Lows closer to the coast are forecast to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Going forward, a Freeze Warning product will only be needed along the immediate coast as all inland locations have recorded a freeze.

Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will increase across our forecast area by Thursday afternoon in advance of an upper level trough swinging from the Desert Southwest to the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandles. The surface ridge of high pressure will continue to shift into the western Atlantic, while surface low pressure deepens across northwest TX/southwest OK. Surface flow will become southeasterly over our region by Thursday afternoon between these features, with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 50s over southwestern portions of our CWA by late in the day. Deep layer moisture will also gradually improve across southeast MS and far southwest AL by Thursday afternoon, where PWAT values rise to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. There may be just enough ascent along the eastern fringe of the moisture axis to aid in the development of a few showers across southeast MS by late Thursday afternoon. Will keep POPs in the slight chance category (~20%) for now over these far western zones, with continued dry conditions across the remainder of the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to range in the 60s across our region. Increasing southeasterly flow and swell will support a MODERATE risk of rip currents along area beaches Thursday into Thursday night. The risk could start trending toward HIGH by early Friday morning with surf heights also building to 3-5 feet.
/21

SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Here comes the rain!

We transition into an active pattern as we roll through the latter part of the work week and into this weekend. The initial round of rain will be entering the area through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday as a shortwave pivots out of Texas and into the Midwest.
The surface high overhead gets nudged out of the region as a surface low (associated with the shortwave) ejects out of the Southern Plains toward the Midwest. Deep onshore flow allows rich, Gulf moisture to begin funneling into the Gulf Coast with PWATs approaching 2 inches along the coast by Friday afternoon. As the surface low jet sets off to the northeast, a warm front begins to lift out of the Gulf and slides into the local area in the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Chances for thunderstorms increase as we approach the pre-dawn hours on Friday and through the day as the warm front continues to lift across the area. Can't rule out a few strong storms early on Friday given the warm front moving overhead and strong deep layer shear. That said, the instability doesn't begin to ramp up until after the strong shear begins to lift out of the area in the morning on Friday. Given that we don't have both the strong shear and increasing instability at the same time (along with a saturated profile), the chances for severe storms seems rather low at the moment (unless the warm front surges inland faster and residence time in the warm sector increases). Heavy rainfall and the potential for minor flooding is more of a concern than severe storms on Friday (especially across the coastal counties) and that concern only grows as we move deeper into the weekend.

There won't be much of a break between the initial round of rain and the next rounds as rich, Gulf moisture continues to funnel into the region. Waves of rain will slide across the area off and on in the Friday night through Sunday timeframe. Expect another jump in rain chances in the overnight hours on Friday through early Saturday evening and another wave early on Sunday. PWATs remain near 2 inches throughout the weekend before a cold front slowly moves across the region. Flooding will be a concern over the weekend as storms will be efficient rainmakers and will have a tendency to repeatedly move over the same locations given the deep southwesterly flow. 2-4 inches of rain is possible across the area with the higher values in that range likely occurring along the Florida panhandle. GFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate high probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain (generally east of I-65), while the Euro ensemble guidance is not nearly as bullish with the higher probabilities hugging the coastline along the Florida panhandle.
Ensemble guidance is still indicating a small probability of 4+ inches of rain, generally east of I-65 (especially in the panhandle), so the higher end of that 2-4 inch forecast is certainly not out of the question for some areas.

A surface high builds overhead next week and the area slowly begins to dry out again. Blended guidance lingers the rain into Monday and Tuesday, but the current thinking is that the rain will quickly exit the area late Sunday night. Trimmed the blended guidance back in the POPs, but if these trends continue, we will likely be able to completely erase the POPs early next week. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as high pressure shifts east and low pressure lifts from the Plains to the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds may increase to Small Craft Advisory thresholds (around 20 kt) over the Gulf marine zones late Thursday night. Confidence was low enough to preclude advisory issuance with this package, but will later shifts will continue to assess. Seas build to 4-6 feet Thursday night into Friday morning and perhaps locally near 7 feet. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 38 66 56 74 64 73 63 72 / 0 10 70 80 70 90 60 60 Pensacola 41 67 59 73 67 73 66 72 / 0 10 60 80 70 90 70 70 Destin 44 68 59 75 67 75 67 74 / 0 0 50 90 70 90 70 70 Evergreen 30 61 47 73 62 73 60 72 / 0 0 70 80 70 90 70 60 Waynesboro 33 62 49 74 61 70 59 70 / 0 10 80 60 70 80 60 40 Camden 31 61 45 70 60 69 58 68 / 0 0 70 80 60 90 60 50 Crestview 29 63 49 74 63 74 61 73 / 0 0 50 80 70 90 70 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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East Bay
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Wed -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:46 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:41 AM CST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM CST     Moonrise
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East Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Navarre Beach
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Wed -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:07 AM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:46 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:47 PM CST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Navarre Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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