Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 1:36 PM   Moonset 2:11 AM

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GMZ655 Expires:202405170315;;313479 Fzus54 Kmob 161452 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 952 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz650-655-170315- coastal waters from pensacola fl to pascagoula ms out 20 nm- coastal waters from okaloosa walton county line fl to pensacola fl out 20 nm- 952 am cdt Thu may 16 2024
Rest of today - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south around 5 knots late. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.Saturday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Monday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Monday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 952 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis - Southerly winds will increase to moderate, along with building seas, late in the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area late Thursday night through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS64 KMOB 161748 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. The first of multiple waves of storm looks to approach the region from the west during the overnight hours, bringing MVFR ceilings as well as showers and thunderstorms to the area. Expect brief reductions in visibility with some of the heavier activity and some gusty winds as storms move through. Rain should move off to the east during the morning hours, with additional rounds expected across the area later on Friday and into Friday night. /96

NEAR AND SHORT TERM
(Now through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Dry weather conditions prevail through mid-evening before an active period of weather begins around midnight and continues through Saturday evening with multiple rounds of convection featuring potential flash flooding and severe weather. More details on this can be found below. High temperatures today will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s, or about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. Cooler highs in the lower to middle 80s will follow through the remainder of the week due to the increase in cloud and rain coverage. Overnight lows tonight and Friday night will be in the middle 60s northern locations with lower 70s closer to the coast, or about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lows Saturday night will be around 3 degrees cooler with the passage of a cool front.
A Moderate risk of rip currents will be in effect through tonight, followed by a High risk through the rest of the week.

Severe Weather Potential...

Recent CAM guidance has suggested that the initial shortwave will bring scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms late tonight, with a fast moving complex of moderate to heavy rain mainly affecting the southern zones. Wind gusts up to 50 mph could occur with the stronger storms in the line of convection, and possibly in the wake of the convection as the CAM guidance is suggestion the development of a wake low. After a bit of a reprieve Friday morning, strong to severe thunderstorms are then forecast for Friday afternoon and evening. Several things have changed with model guidance the past 24 hours, with increasing confidence on strong to severe storms associated with this second shortwave Friday afternoon and evening. Therefore, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk of severe weather further east to now include our entire forecast area. Damaging winds are the primary risk across all areas Friday afternoon and evening, but a brief tornado or two and isolated large hail are possible as well. There should be a bit of a reprieve again after midnight Friday night, before the third and final shortwave brings a return of high rain chances to the area on Saturday.

The pre-storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Deep layer shear values as high as 50-55kts are expected by Friday evening. Models vary on the hodograph signatures, but at best should only see 150 to 250 m2/s2 sfc-3km SRH at the time afternoon convection initiates. The second round of severe weather will likely come during the day Saturday. Confidence is lower with this third shortwave for the development of severe weather, but we will continue to monitor and provide updates as SPC currently has a Marginal Risk across our forecast area.

Flash Flooding Potential...

We continue to have some confidence on the evolution of flash flooding potential Friday afternoon through the remainder of the week, mainly along northwest of I-65 on Friday and across the eastern two-thirds of our forecast area on Saturday. Increased ascent along with deeper Gulf moisture returning in the lower levels will resulting in an increase in showers/storms through the period to potentially bring several bouts of heavy rainfall with event totals from 3-5 inches possible. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall still remains uncertain, but would not be surprised in some areas potentially seeing up to 7 inches of rain.
We will continue to monitor and provide updates and possible Flood Watches as needed. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 70 85 70 82 68 89 67 91 / 60 70 60 80 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 72 83 73 80 70 87 70 89 / 50 60 50 80 30 10 0 0 Destin 73 83 74 81 72 86 71 87 / 30 50 40 80 40 10 0 0 Evergreen 67 85 69 82 65 87 64 91 / 40 80 70 90 30 10 0 0 Waynesboro 65 84 67 83 64 88 63 91 / 70 90 60 70 10 0 0 0 Camden 65 83 67 81 65 86 63 89 / 50 90 70 80 20 10 0 0 Crestview 67 87 70 82 65 89 64 92 / 30 60 50 80 30 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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