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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 335 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 335 Pm Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis..Moderate to strong southeasterly to southerly flow persists through tonight and into Friday. Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front.

FXUS64 KMOB 302358 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 558 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening, outside of very localized upper-end MVFR ceilings along the coast. Light rain showers will begin to develop and move from southwest to northeast across the inland portions of SE MS and SW AL starting mid-evening and especially into the overnight hours.
Southerly Low Level Wind Shear (LLWS) of 40 kts around 2000 feet is likely over interior SE MS and SW AL, also starting mid- evening. This LLWS will spread eastward overnight into Friday morning, but should mainly occur north of I-10.

Additional showers and a few thunderstorms will spread into the area throughout the day Friday, with generally low-end VFR to MVFR conditions, along with brief reductions to IFR in some of the heavier activity. Easterly surface winds of 6-11 knots will slowly shift southerly through noon Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 420 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 420 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Zonal flow aloft this afternoon will turn southwesterly later this evening as a southern stream shortwave trough, currently located over Texas, ejects northeastward. Additional weak impulses will also push overhead within this newly established flow pattern, especially as we get into the late afternoon and into the short term period. This flow pattern will also allow for deep layer moisture to surge into the region, with PWAT values increasing to around 1.5 to 1.7 inches by tonight. At the surface, an area of low pressure is beginning to develop over southwestern Oklahoma in response to the upper trough. This low is expected to follow a similar track northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley. As it continues to develop, it will help to pull a stalled warm front, which is located just offshore, northward tonight. As it lifts northward, strong warm air advection will allow for dew points to rise considerably over the next 24 hours; from the 30s and 40s today to the 60s to maybe even lower 70s by tomorrow. A weakening frontal boundary/surface trough will also approach the region on Friday from the west. This boundary will eventually stall overhead as forcing from the initial shortwave trough quickly lifts northeastward.

Mainly dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Rain chances will steadily increase by the late evening as the warm front makes its way onshore and across the area. Rain will likely start off as light showers caused by a combination of isentropic lift and general diffluence aloft. By the overnight hours, as moisture values increase and some weak destabilization occurs south of the warm front, some heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will become possible. As we get towards daybreak and beyond, overall rain coverage becomes a little less certain. In fact, a few CAMs hint at coverage being more scattered and confined to the incoming boundary from the west rather than widespread across the entire area. This is likely due to the upper trough and associated surface low being located further northwest than previously thought and moving a bit quicker to the northeast, causing the best forcing to lift to the northeast a bit quicker as well.
Still, however, with the surface boundary draped across the area, deep southwesterly flow aloft, and high PWATs, maintained high PoPs throughout the day on Friday.

The entire region is outlooked in a marginal risk for severe weather and a marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook, however both the severe and flooding risks look to remain highly conditional.
Looking at severe potential, with dew points rising into the upper 60s to low 70s, instability looks to be on the increase during the late morning and afternoon. Overall instability, however, will likely depend on earlier rain coverage; i.e. more coverage of rain will limit overall instability. In addition there is some question with regards to instability and shear overlap, as the best shear values look to exit our region by around daybreak, leaving effective shear values of around 20-30 knots during peak heating. The other big question will be in regards to forcing. The timing of the best destabilization looks to occur in between shortwaves, with the initial shortwave passing well to our north before daybreak and the next impulse arriving by the evening. With all that being said, if there is enough forcing in place, if we are able to destabilize quicker, and if the shear does not drop off as much, then we could see a few strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds or even a brief tornado on Friday. As far as the flooding risk, any flooding that will occur will likely be confined to urban/low-lying areas where heavy rain bands may train. Overall, models are indicating a general 0.25 to 0.50 inch for QPF across the area with isolated bands of up to 2 inches across localized regions.

Temperatures tonight will moderate through the overnight hours as the warm front lifts across the region, with lows likely occurring close to midnight. Lows will range from the upper 40s well inland to the low 60s along the coast. Tomorrow's highs will be in the low to mid 70s. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through the period. /96

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 420 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A messy and still somewhat uncertain weather pattern is shaping up for the weekend. For now, it still appears that intermittent showers and thunderstorms, numerous to widespread at times, are expected beginning late tonight and continuing through late Sunday. The period will begin with a frontal boundary off to the west of our forecast area, trailing from a primary area of low pressure that now looks to develop a little further north and west of our area than it looked earlier in the week, lifting from the Oklahoma area up toward the Great Lakes by Saturday morning. As such, the primary forcing with this system now looks to be further northwest and north of our area as well. A weaker, secondary low pressure area may develop along the frontal boundary as it moves east toward and approaches our forecast area on Saturday then weakens while lifting north away from our area through Sunday as the front moves slowly east across our region. With this, the best chances for rain looks to come late Friday night into Saturday morning when the secondary low pressure is strongest and closest to our area. The NBM continues to advertise Likely to Categorical PoPs Friday night and Saturday with Likely PoPs continuing through Saturday night. Pops begin to decrease from west to east during the day on Sunday as the front moves through, then end across the area by late Sunday night.

There are some differences though among the models as to how widespread the rain is just how much there will be through the short term period. GFS and GEM both indicated widespread 1-3 inches (locally up to 4 inches) over much of forecast area, while the ECMWF is similar in overall totals but keeps heaviest QPF out over the Gulf. For now not making much of a chance in the forecast but will shift the higher total possibility a little south toward the coast (similar to the ECMWF and WPC QPF forecast numbers). It still appears that a heavy rainfall event is possible for at least some of the area, especially during the Friday night through Saturday morning time frame, and we will continue to monitor the QPF trends and make adjustments as required. WPC has our entire outlooked with a MARGINAL Risk of Excessive which seems good for now.

SPC continues to show a MARGINAL Risk of severe weather for all of our area from Friday night through Saturday night, but that is somewhat of a conditional forecast. As we mentioned a little earlier, it now appears that most of the stronger forcing and dynamics will be lifting well to the north of our area. There will be some instability to work with, but that will depend on how far inland the mesoscale marine warm front can move inland. The GFS and GEM keep most of the instability offshore through the period, with MUCAPE values generally in the 300-600 J/KG range, will the ECMWF surges a little more instability into the area with MUCAPE possibly up to 800-1000 J/KG (especially late Friday night into Saturday morning). There will be some shear, with model soundings showing Effective Inflow SRH values possibly up to around 300 M2/S2 Saturday morning, with moderately curved hodographs.
Question is will there be enough instability and/or lifting (as primarily forcing will be well to the north). Will probably depend on any moisture gradient boundary moving in off the Gulf. If we can get an area of overlapping instability and shear near a boundary, this could yield a supercell and low end brief tornado potential. As far as the damaging wind threat, there is a very marginal threat of that as well, but the relatively deep layer, moist airmass will likely downdraft potential (DCAPE values no more that 500, even as low as 200) during the most likely time of any severe weather potential (Saturday morning). We will continue to monitor for any severe potential.

As far as temperatures go, nighttime lows in the 60s Friday night and Saturday night but cooling into the 40s and 50s Sunday night in the wake of the front. Daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday and in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday as the front moves across the area. /12

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Much drier airmass expected over the area during the long term period. We will get a reinforcing cold front move across the region on Tuesday, but this should be a dry frontal passage. No PoPs expected through the period. It will be cool again next week, with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. /12

MARINE...
Issued at 420 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Moderate to strong southeasterly to southerly flow persists through tonight and into Friday. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for our offshore Gulf waters (20NM-60NM) through 9am Friday.
Cannot rule out a few occasional gusts up to 30-35 knots over these areas. Moderate onshore flow persists into the weekend before becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday in the wake of a cold front. /96

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 57 74 65 74 63 71 52 66 / 60 80 90 90 70 30 20 10 Pensacola 59 74 66 73 66 70 54 65 / 50 80 90 90 70 50 30 10 Destin 59 74 68 75 66 73 56 68 / 40 80 90 90 70 70 30 10 Evergreen 48 73 61 75 60 72 47 66 / 50 80 80 100 70 50 20 10 Waynesboro 51 75 62 73 59 69 47 64 / 80 70 70 90 50 20 10 0 Camden 48 72 60 72 59 68 47 61 / 60 80 70 100 60 30 20 10 Crestview 49 73 66 75 62 73 49 68 / 40 80 90 100 70 60 30 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CST tonight through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from midnight CST tonight through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Thu -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:34 PM CST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Harris
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Thu -- 01:22 AM CST     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:38 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:05 PM CST     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:45 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris, The Narrows, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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