Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niceville, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 141110 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

An active pattern will persist through the next few days, as mid level troughing maintains its hold on the weather pattern across the region. As of this writing, isolated showers were noted right along our coastline and into our marine waters, and a brief downpour is possible through the next couple of hours, generally south of I-10.
Activity is expected to increase heading into the daylight hours, as south to southwest flow prevails through the vertical column.
Moisture advection will continue, with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s across much of the area. Although there's very little in the way of a prevalent surface boundary, outflow boundaries from yesterday's activity linger and will provide a focus for convective initiation later this morning. The highest coverage of thunderstorms will likely be this afternoon as we reach our peak heating hours and the seabreeze lifts north providing the surface forcing. The abundantly high moisture will allow for heavy rain in some of the storms, and isolated flash flooding may occur in the heavier downpours, especially in our flood prone areas. Severe storms are not anticipated, though a few storms could produce gusty, subsevere, winds. Much like a normal summer day, activity will dissipate after sunset, as we lose daytime heating. Outside of thunderstorms, hot and humid conditions will persist, with highs warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will only fall into the 70s.

The aforementioned trough will move eastward through the overnight hours on Saturday, before the upper low becomes absorbed in the longwave pattern. A secondary, southern stream trough will amplify early Sunday morning as it moves into the Mississippi Valley, providing a similar set up to today. Surface flow will remain relatively weak and from the south, with southerly flow through the vertical column. This will keep the high precip chances in the forecast, with 70 to 80 PoPs for the afternoon. Confidence is not overly high on this given the lack of surface forcing; however, the past few days have proven that as the seabreeze lifts north in the afternoon, thunderstorms will likely develop along the boundary and then lift northward. We could then see more convection initiating on those boundaries, making our coverage rather high. We'll see almost a rinse and repeat on Monday, as the forecast area remains on the eastern periphery of the trough. Hazards also remain the same as today, with localized flooding and generally subsevere winds possible.

The remainder of the forecast period will feature above normal precip chances, mainly during the afternoon. The trough will weaken quite a bit by Tuesday; however, the forecast area will remain situated between high pressure building to our west and the subtropical high to our east. This will keep southwest flow through the week, with scattered to numerous showers/storms in the forecast each afternoon. While the highest confidence exists during the afternoon when we reach our peak heating and the seabreeze comes into play, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the morning hours as well. Highs through the period will be near seasonal norms, with highs near 90 and overnight lows in the 70s. One thing to note is that the ridge too our west may begin to influence us a bit sooner than currently forecast, which would make heat a concern. As of now, heat indices look to be in the 103 to 108 degree range by Friday, so it's something to bear in mind as we head through the new work week. /73
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