Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Niceville, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 130602 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 102 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Through Friday night

An upper low over the eastern Central Plains meanders north on the northwest side of a stronger upper high centered off the Florida Atlantic coast through Friday before opening and starting to move east over Mid Mississippi River Valley. The upper high flattens a bit in the process. A surface ridge stretching west over the Southeast shifts south to over the northern Gulf coast in response.
A weak impulse is swinging northeast along the southeast side of the upper low. In combination with a moist airmass over the Southeast and Lower Mississippi River Valley (precipitable h20 values averaging between 1.8" and 2.1"), and a seabreeze moving inland, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed and are moving north over the forecast area this afternoon. Guidance is advertising another shortwave passing over the forecast area Friday, so am expecting another round of seabreeze initiated convection Friday/Friday evening. Strong to marginally severe storms continue to be possible this afternoon and again Friday. MLCapes averaging in the 2000-2500J/kg range, with DCapes in the 700-1100J/kg range are expected each afternoon. Soundings show a generally unidirectional wind profile, with Bulk wind Shear values below 20kts. Waterspouts remain a possiblity in the late morning to early morning time frame.

Temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected through the Near Term. High temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 expected with Heat Indices topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s each day. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected through Friday night.
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Saturday through Thursday

Through the weekend, the shortwave trough passes north of the forecast area, leaving a mean upper trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The developing upper trough will shift the upper high over the Gulf/FL/northern Caribbean eastward. The upper high reorganizes off the Carolina/Ga coast (GFS, and ensembles), or over the northern Caribbean (ECMWF) as shortwave energy moves through the Mississippi River upper trough and passes over the Southeast. Moisture levels remain high through the extended as the surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf continues to pump moisture inland. Add in several impulses passing over/near the forecast area, seabreeze initiated showers and thunderstorms remain a possibility through the Extended. Strong to severe pulse type storms in the afternoon/evening also remain a possibility through the period.

High temperatures see a bit of an uptick through the weekend, with the more northerly position of the upper high bringing more subsidence to the forecast area. High temperatures rise from the upper 80s to around 90 Saturday to 89 to 94 over most of the forecast area for Wednesday and Thursday. Heat Indices in the 98 to 104 degree range are expected through the Extended. Low temperatures see a rise through the period, from low 70s north of the I-10 corridor to mid 70s to near 80 south Saturday night, to mid 70s north of I-10 to upper 70s north of I-10 to around 80 south.

Continued organized onshore flow will bring a Moderate Risk of rip currents over the weekend into the middle of next week.
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