Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 325 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - West winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Areas of dense fog early this morning. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog after midnight. Saturday - West winds around 5 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - West winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Monday - North winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 325 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow prevails through Saturday night. A cold front moves across the marine area by Sunday night with offshore flow becoming prevalent into early next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 191152 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low ceilings continue to plague the area this morning with several spots dipping to MVFR and IFR levels. The exception is at KMOB where visibilities and ceilings dropped to VLIFR around sunrise.
Ceilings and visibilities should begin to improve by 14-15z area- wide. A few showers are possible north of Highway 84 late this afternoon, but the rest of the area remains dry. Southwesterly winds ramp up to 10-15 kts this afternoon at the terminals before becoming calm overnight. Fog and low ceilings will be impactful again in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. 07/mb

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Main forecast concern through early this weekend continues to be low ceilings and patchy fog each morning given the light winds and ample moisture. Low ceilings continue to plague the area as of 08z, which aligns with the current SREF guidance. Visibilities continue to bounce around, but have generally remained above 1sm overnight (thus far). A stratus deck moving in from the west may help to keep visibilities from tanking over the coming hours. That said, we will continue to monitor fog trends in satellite imagery, observations, and area webcams throughout the pre-dawn hours and will issue an advisory if necessary. Expect a similar pattern for Friday night into early Saturday with ceilings dropping around midnight or so.

Most of the area remains dry today with the only chance for rain remaining north of the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. Winds remain southwesterly through the day as the surface ridge keeps a firm grip over the eastern Gulf. HRRR guidance indicates that PWATs will gradually increase to 1.4-1.5 inches later today as moisture steadily slides into the area from the west-southwest. A cold front slides toward the area throughout the day, likely approaching our northernmost counties late tonight. The front will likely pump the breaks as it moves into our CWA given the zonal flow aloft and weak surface ridging sitting to our south over the eastern Gulf. While we can't rule out a few showers or potentially a storm across our northernmost counties this afternoon ahead of the front, we're not seeing as much ascent aloft (in comparison to past model runs) to kick off much convection today. However, a few subtle shortwaves move into the region by late Saturday morning, which will help to kick off scattered showers and storms, especially by the afternoon hours, as the front drifts south and deeper into the area. While there isn't much shear in place ahead of the front, there's ample instability for the storms to tap into on Saturday afternoon. Can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through this evening and drops to LOW this weekend. The risk of rip currents increases to a MODERATE again by Tuesday. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain next week as a very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast through the middle of the week. Behind the front temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by Thursday. 03/13

MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms on Sunday. 07/mb

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 84 66 84 59 68 47 73 49 / 0 0 20 30 80 10 0 0 Pensacola 82 67 82 64 71 51 73 54 / 0 0 10 10 70 10 0 0 Destin 80 67 80 66 73 54 74 57 / 0 0 10 10 60 20 0 0 Evergreen 88 64 85 57 66 44 73 45 / 0 0 30 30 80 10 0 0 Waynesboro 87 65 80 51 60 43 70 44 / 10 10 40 60 80 0 0 0 Camden 86 64 81 52 60 43 69 44 / 20 20 30 50 80 0 0 0 Crestview 88 63 87 60 73 46 75 47 / 0 0 20 10 70 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

East Pass (Destin)
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:08 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:22 PM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northwest Florida,