Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 2:27 PM   Moonset 2:36 AM

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GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 354 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
.tornado watch 254 in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening - .
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Sunday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - West winds around 5 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Tuesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 354 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Moderate southerly winds along with building seas will occur today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring additional showers and Thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front.

FXUS64 KMOB 172116 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 416 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A complex weather pattern continues to evolve across the Gulf Coast this afternoon as a weak sfc boundary continues to slowly sink southward. South of this boundary a very unstable atmosphere has developed with MLCAPE values over 2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 50 knots. Enhanced low level shear in the vicinity of the sfc boundary will help to enhanced an isolated tornado potential as well. As a result, a tornado watch has been issued for Escambia and Covington counties through 10pm this evening. As these storms encounter the more unstable airmass closer to the coast, expect an uptick in intensity as these storms move south. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. A tornado cannot be completely ruled out especially near the boundary. There may be a lull in activity late this evening before convection increases again during the morning hours on Saturday. More heavy rain and severe storms are possible with these storms overnight into Saturday morning. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning. While the bulk of the heavier rain will move east of the area Saturday morning, additional development is possible through the day as the upper low moves across the Tennessee Valley.

Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s. /13


SHORT TERM
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

An upper level shortwave trough over the eastern Conus moves off, allowing a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains to shift east to over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A bit cooler and drier moves over the Southeast Saturday night into Sunday as the upper trough moves off, but subsidence from the approaching upper ridge quickly negates the influx of slightly cooler air. A few showers and thunderstorms will dampen land and marine areas of the forecast area Saturday night, but the rest of the Short Term is expected to be dry.

High temperatures will quickly rebound to near to above seasonal norms with the increasing upper subsidence. Mid to upper 80s Sunday see an uptick to upper 80s to around 90 over most of the forecast area (mid 80s along the coast) for Monday. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday night see an uptick into the mid to upper 60s for Monday night over most of the forecast area.

Moderate onshore flow eases Saturday into Saturday night with onshore swell also decreasing. A High Risk of rip currents drops to moderate by Sunday evening in the process.
/16

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The upper ridge takes an northeasterly tilt as it moves over the eastern Conus. Several rounds of shortwave energy get directed in a path generally north of the forecast area through Thursday, and with that, the highest PoPs remain north of the forecast area, even with southerly flow restored to the southeast and an upward trend in moisture levels. Guidance is advertising a stronger upper level shortwave moving east over the Southeast Friday, bringing a better chance of rain to the forecast area. Some guidance is advertising a weak cold front moving south over the Southeast Friday into Friday night(GFS), but the ECMWF and GDPS maintain a warmer, more moist southerly flow. Any drop in temperatures from a cold front will be just after the current package, so am maintaining a seasonably warm and humid forecast through the rest of the forecast.
/16

MARINE
Issued at 412 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Moderate southerly winds along with building seas will occur today ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms to the marine area tonight through Saturday. A light offshore flow returns late in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 80 66 88 66 89 68 87 / 70 80 10 10 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 79 68 84 68 85 71 84 / 60 90 20 10 0 0 0 0 Destin 73 81 69 85 70 85 72 84 / 50 90 30 10 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 68 80 63 87 63 88 64 89 / 60 80 20 10 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 66 82 63 87 63 90 65 90 / 50 60 10 10 0 0 0 0 Camden 67 81 62 85 62 88 65 88 / 60 70 20 10 0 0 0 0 Crestview 68 81 63 88 63 89 64 89 / 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.

GM...None.

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East Pass (Destin)
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Fri -- 02:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:04 AM CDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:50 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 PM CDT     0.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
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East Pass (Destin), Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Shalimar, Garnier Bayou, Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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