Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ferry Pass, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:06PM Saturday March 28, 2020 10:33 PM CDT (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202003290900;;215688 Fzus54 Kmob 282046 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 346 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-290900- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 346 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft should exercise caution through this evening...
Tonight..South winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Sunday..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northeast 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south 13 to 18 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 18 to 23 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 346 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
Synopsis..Moderate southerly winds continue this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight and become southwesterly by early Sunday. A light southeasterly flow will then develop Monday. By early Tuesday, a moderate to strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead and along the front on Tuesday. A moderate northerly flow is then likely to develop late Tuesday night and persist through midweek, with winds becoming light through the day Wednesday. Light east/northeast winds are then expected on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ferry Pass, FL
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location: 30.52, -87.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 282344 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 644 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday night/. Overall the near term forecast remains on track with no changes during this cycle. We still expect a rather weak and piddly line of storms to move into the area late tonight associated with a weak cold front. The best chance of rain remains north and west of I-65. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with southerly winds continuing. With the continued southerly wind, a high risk of rip currents will continue into tomorrow. BB/03


AVIATION. 00Z issuance . VFR conditions across the area will continue into the night. Winds will remain southerly through midnight as a weak front will approach the area tonight. Ahead of the boundary, cigs might drop to MVFR values tonight and persist into the morning. Some area of patchy fog could be possible but kept visbys in the MVFR category. Showers and a few storms will be possible late tonight north and west of I-65 but should diminish throughout the night. By tomorrow ceilings should rise in the wake of the front as winds turn out north northwest by tomorrow night. BB/03

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 408 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020/

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/ . The upper level ridge will begin to break down and move eastward today as a trough makes its way over the central CONUS. This feature will quickly develop into a cutoff low that will progress northeastward up through the upper Mississippi Valley and over the Great Lakes region by late weekend. This will then result in a more zonal pattern by late weekend for the northern Gulf coast. Coincident with the upper levels, a surface low pressure system will track across the central Plains and over the Great Lakes through the weekend. A cold front associated with this low will track across the ARKLATEX region this evening and overnight tonight. By tomorrow morning, the front will be on our doorstep with FROPA expected tomorrow evening.

Sensible weather will consist of dry conditions for the rest of this afternoon and this evening. Some mid-level clouds have formed and are streaming in from the south this afternoon as well. Some patchy fog development is possible over the inland areas late tonight, particularly in the east as shown by model probabilities. However, any fog will quickly dissipate by tomorrow morning. Clouds will also be on the increase overnight as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Hi-Res models show a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms traversing the southeastern CONUS late tonight, but weakening substantially over time through tomorrow morning and afternoon with FROPA. Models indicate around 500 to 700 J/kg of MLCAPE, with around 1000 J/kg along and just ahead of the front as it passes over the region. Although, it will remain to be seen whether the convective inhibition present will hinder any thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, there is at least a slight chance of a few embedded thunderstorms tomorrow with the amount of elevated instability shown by model guidance. Showers and any embedded storms will then gradually decrease through the afternoon.

Temperatures will continue to be well above seasonal norms this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected. Lows tonight will then be in the mid to upper 60s inland to around 70 degrees right along the coast. Highs tomorrow will be a bit cooler due to FROPA, with temperatures in the lower 80s expected in the west and mid to upper 80s likely in the east.

Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents continues through Sunday, mainly due to 2 ft/6-10 sec onshore swell. /26

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/ . A deep layer ridge of high pressure will extend from the southern Gulf of Mexico through the FL peninsula and adjacent western Atlantic on Sunday night. West to southwest flow aloft will be prevalent across the north central Gulf Coast region to the northwest of this feature. A weak shortwave trough within this flow pattern will allow the weak surface cold front to sink southward through the forecast area and become positioned over the far northern Gulf by 12Z Monday morning. Little in the way of moisture or ascent is currently indicate with guidance trends, so will keep a dry forecast going on Sunday night. Temperatures will be a little cooler as surface high pressure builds into the area with light northerly flow, and expect Sunday night lows to range in the upper 50s to lower 60s over interior areas, and in the mid 60s along the immediate coast.

The upper level ridge of high pressure will flatten over the far southern Gulf Monday into Monday night, while the next upper level trough located over the vicinity of the Four Corners Region early Monday morning moves eastward toward the central plains states and adjacent Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valley regions Monday into Monday night. Surface high pressure located over the Tennessee Valley and northern MS/AL Monday gradually weakens into Monday night as surface low pressure over northwest TX Monday moves toward the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. The frontal boundary over the northern Gulf early Monday morning will slowly retreat northward near the immediate coast through Monday afternoon, before lifting north as a warm front across the rest of the CWA late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Deep layer moisture gradually trends upward across southeast MS and interior southwest AL Monday and Monday evening, and weak ascent could support the development of a few showers over these zones during this time frame. Moisture/ ascent will increase across the region late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as the shortwave trough lifts toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley region (and as the surface low moves from the Lower MS Valley toward central MS/AL). Showers along with a chance of thunderstorms will spread across the region late Monday night and especially into Tuesday morning. We will maintain likely POPs over southeast MS and interior southwest AL late Monday night (with chance POPs spreading over most of the rest of the forecast area during this time frame), before POPs become categorical (~80-90%) in nature over most of the CWA Tuesday morning. Surface dewpoints rising into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees will allow for an increasingly unstable airmass Tuesday morning, with MLCAPE values potentially as high as 500-1000 J/KG across much of the region. Deep layer/effective shear is also quite strong over our area (>65 knots). These factors could support a damaging wind threat over the area as convection quickly moves east across our area Tuesday morning. There could also a brief opportunity for a tornado given a narrow zone of 0-1km storm relative helicity values between 200-300 m2/s2 over the region, but the tornado threat seems lower at this time. Drier and cooler conditions follow for Tuesday night. /21

EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/ . Cooler and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as dry northwest flow aloft Wednesday transitions to shortwave ridging aloft by Thursday. Moistening zonal flow may return late in the extended period, which could allow POPs to trend upward again Friday into Saturday. We added low POPs mainly over central and southern zones Friday and Friday night, with slight chance POPs area wide Saturday. /21

MARINE . Moderate southerly winds will continue through this afternoon, then diminish tonight and become southwesterly early Sunday. A light southeasterly flow will then develop Monday, then switch to a moderate to strong southwesterly flow early Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front approaching from the west. Showers and storms are also expected ahead and along the front on Tuesday. A moderate northerly flow is then expected to develop late Tuesday night as the front moves through the area. With these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed Tuesday and Tuesday night. Northerly winds will persist through Wednesday but decrease to be light through the day. Light east/northeast winds are then expected on Thursday. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

FL . High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS . None. GM . None.

This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 8 mi46 min S 9.9 G 12 76°F 79°F1017 hPa
PPTA1 26 mi64 min 77°F 1017.3 hPa
WBYA1 35 mi46 min 81°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 36 mi109 min 77°F 1016 hPa74°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 37 mi34 min S 12 G 16 77°F 77°F1017 hPa (+1.4)76°F
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 42 mi34 min SSE 9.9 74°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.7)
PTOA1 47 mi46 min 76°F 73°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 48 mi52 min S 6 G 11 82°F 77°F1016.4 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 48 mi46 min 76°F 70°F1016.3 hPa
MBPA1 49 mi46 min 77°F 77°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL4 mi41 minS 99.00 miOvercast76°F73°F91%1016.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL14 mi98 minS 77.00 miOvercast76°F73°F91%1016.3 hPa
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL15 mi38 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F71°F85%1015.4 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL16 mi98 minS 610.00 miOvercast74°F71°F91%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNS

Wind History from PNS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW5NW4NW4CalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3S7SE8SE9S9S11S12S12S11S7SW7SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:22 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:22 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.21.21.110.90.70.50.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pensacola, Florida
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Pensacola
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:46 PM CDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:05 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:02 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.90.91110.90.80.60.50.30.20.1-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.