Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monticello, FL
May 7, 2024 8:41 AM EDT (12:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:44 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 5:13 AM Moonset 7:08 PM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 329 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024 /229 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024/
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Saturday - North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - West winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 329 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis -
a high pressure ridge will extend from from south of bermuda across the florida peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.
a high pressure ridge will extend from from south of bermuda across the florida peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and Thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 071053 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 653 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
A bit of fog remains possible early this morning thanks to clear skies, calm winds, and ample surface moisture. However, confidence wasn't quite there to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time (3:30am EDT). We'll continue to monitor satellite trends and surface obs in case that changes around sunrise.
An H5 ridge builds over the region throughout the day. This will limit rain chances to 20 percent at best along the sea breeze this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s for much of the area this afternoon before cooling into the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight. There is also the potential for some patchy fog again later tonight.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
On Wednesday, the ridge axis over the area begins to get pushed off to the east as a trough tries to drop southward across the northern Plains. Part of the trough gets cutoff over the southwest CONUS on Thursday, but the rest of it continues to swing eastward over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front over the southern Plains on Wednesday is forecast to push eastward Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the displacement of the trough well to the north will lead to the northern portion of the front making far more eastward progress than the southern extent and result in a fairly west to east oriented front across the Gulf Coast states by Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front Thursday, with a potential MCS moving into the area from the west sometime Thursday afternoon. While strong to severe storms may be possible with this feature, a weakening low level jet should lead to the MCS weakening as it moves into our area.
A lull in convection is likely in the wake of this first round before another round of strong to severe storms beginning in the early morning hours Friday. As long as there is enough instability recovery after the first round of storms, this second round appears to pose the greater severe threat. By Friday morning, the low level jet begins to strengthen over the area again, the mid level trough axis is digging into the southeast CONUS, and the region becomes positioned within the right entrance region of an upper jet. This combination could lead to a blossoming of strong to severe thunderstorms in the predawn hours Friday and lasting into the early afternoon when the trough finally pushes the front through the area. The primary hazards with this event are damaging winds, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall. SPC has the area outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in the predawn hours Friday morning. Forecast rainfall totals for this event aren't super impressive at this point, however I suspect they will increase over the coming days. Forecast PWs are near 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with a frontal boundary oriented parallel to the mean flow, which is usually a favorable setup for training of storms and subsequent heavy rainfall. WPC has the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both Thursday and Friday.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Once the front moves through the area, more seasonable conditions return. Offshore winds are expected to prevail throughout the weekend, with relatively dry conditions expected outside of the daily seabreeze showers and storms. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s immediately after the front Saturday, warming to the low to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s each night.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Low stratus/fog will be the main concerns at the start of the TAF period with intermittent IFR to LIFR conditions expected. Any low stratus/fog should begin to lift and mix out by 13Z and mostly dissipate by 15Z at the latest. Once it does, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late morning and into the afternoon and early evening. There is the potential for another round of IFR, maybe even LIFR ceilings and/or visibility early Wednesday morning at all TAF sites.
MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
High pressure building over the region will bring minimal rain chances the next couple of days. Daytime highs climb into the lower 90s away from the immediate coast each afternoon through Thursday with heat indices pushing into the middle 90s. High dispersions are expected the next couple of days due to the combination of southwesterly transport winds at 15 to 20 mph and mixing heights of 4,500 to 5,500 feet. A cold front is forecast to near the region as early as late Thursday with rain chances increasing late Thursday and into Friday. Patchy to areas of fog are possible this morning and again Wednesday morning.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
The main concern is rainfall centered on Friday ahead of the next cold front. The highest amounts are expected in the AL/GA counties where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this threat may shift southward into the FL counties in subsequent forecasts. On the rivers, there are no flooding concerns at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 91 71 90 72 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 84 74 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 92 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 91 69 92 71 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 88 68 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 81 75 82 75 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 653 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
A bit of fog remains possible early this morning thanks to clear skies, calm winds, and ample surface moisture. However, confidence wasn't quite there to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time (3:30am EDT). We'll continue to monitor satellite trends and surface obs in case that changes around sunrise.
An H5 ridge builds over the region throughout the day. This will limit rain chances to 20 percent at best along the sea breeze this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s for much of the area this afternoon before cooling into the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight. There is also the potential for some patchy fog again later tonight.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
On Wednesday, the ridge axis over the area begins to get pushed off to the east as a trough tries to drop southward across the northern Plains. Part of the trough gets cutoff over the southwest CONUS on Thursday, but the rest of it continues to swing eastward over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front over the southern Plains on Wednesday is forecast to push eastward Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the displacement of the trough well to the north will lead to the northern portion of the front making far more eastward progress than the southern extent and result in a fairly west to east oriented front across the Gulf Coast states by Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front Thursday, with a potential MCS moving into the area from the west sometime Thursday afternoon. While strong to severe storms may be possible with this feature, a weakening low level jet should lead to the MCS weakening as it moves into our area.
A lull in convection is likely in the wake of this first round before another round of strong to severe storms beginning in the early morning hours Friday. As long as there is enough instability recovery after the first round of storms, this second round appears to pose the greater severe threat. By Friday morning, the low level jet begins to strengthen over the area again, the mid level trough axis is digging into the southeast CONUS, and the region becomes positioned within the right entrance region of an upper jet. This combination could lead to a blossoming of strong to severe thunderstorms in the predawn hours Friday and lasting into the early afternoon when the trough finally pushes the front through the area. The primary hazards with this event are damaging winds, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall. SPC has the area outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in the predawn hours Friday morning. Forecast rainfall totals for this event aren't super impressive at this point, however I suspect they will increase over the coming days. Forecast PWs are near 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with a frontal boundary oriented parallel to the mean flow, which is usually a favorable setup for training of storms and subsequent heavy rainfall. WPC has the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both Thursday and Friday.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Once the front moves through the area, more seasonable conditions return. Offshore winds are expected to prevail throughout the weekend, with relatively dry conditions expected outside of the daily seabreeze showers and storms. Highs are forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s immediately after the front Saturday, warming to the low to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows are forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s each night.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Low stratus/fog will be the main concerns at the start of the TAF period with intermittent IFR to LIFR conditions expected. Any low stratus/fog should begin to lift and mix out by 13Z and mostly dissipate by 15Z at the latest. Once it does, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through late morning and into the afternoon and early evening. There is the potential for another round of IFR, maybe even LIFR ceilings and/or visibility early Wednesday morning at all TAF sites.
MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
High pressure building over the region will bring minimal rain chances the next couple of days. Daytime highs climb into the lower 90s away from the immediate coast each afternoon through Thursday with heat indices pushing into the middle 90s. High dispersions are expected the next couple of days due to the combination of southwesterly transport winds at 15 to 20 mph and mixing heights of 4,500 to 5,500 feet. A cold front is forecast to near the region as early as late Thursday with rain chances increasing late Thursday and into Friday. Patchy to areas of fog are possible this morning and again Wednesday morning.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
The main concern is rainfall centered on Friday ahead of the next cold front. The highest amounts are expected in the AL/GA counties where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this threat may shift southward into the FL counties in subsequent forecasts. On the rivers, there are no flooding concerns at this time.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 91 71 90 72 / 10 0 10 0 Panama City 84 74 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 92 71 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Albany 91 69 92 71 / 0 0 10 0 Valdosta 92 69 92 71 / 0 0 10 0 Cross City 88 68 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 81 75 82 75 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL | 39 mi | 168 min | NE 1G | 74°F | 56 ft | 29.89 | 71°F | |
| APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL | 75 mi | 102 min | SE 1.9 | 69°F | 29.92 | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
St. Marks
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT 3.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT 1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT 3.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:19 AM EDT 3.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:08 AM EDT 1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:33 PM EDT 3.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 2.9 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 3.3 |
| 5 am |
| 2.9 |
| 6 am |
| 2.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1.7 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.6 |
Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:46 AM EDT 3.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT 1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT 3.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:46 AM EDT 3.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT 1.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT 3.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:17 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT -0.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aucilla River entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 3.2 |
| 3 am |
| 3.3 |
| 4 am |
| 3.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.2 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 2.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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