Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Monticello, FL
May 14, 2024 9:05 PM EDT (01:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:39 AM Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 11:31 AM Moonset 12:56 AM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 232 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024 /132 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024/
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning - .
This afternoon - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 5 feet at 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain. A chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of rain and Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 232 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis -
elevated southwesterly flow continues for at least one more overnight period which could lead to occasional advisory conditions tonight until the front moves through Wednesday. Storms should redevelop overnight, especially across the apalachee bay, which will likely keep advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday. Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
elevated southwesterly flow continues for at least one more overnight period which could lead to occasional advisory conditions tonight until the front moves through Wednesday. Storms should redevelop overnight, especially across the apalachee bay, which will likely keep advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday. Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 142328 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 728 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast reduces instability. It's possible the models are overdoing the convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.
Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear skies expected tomorrow afternoon.
Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a return to instability across across the region. Timing of any specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we'll need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.
After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep- layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions through the week.
Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early next week, likely allowing things to dry out.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF sites, however, it's close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Elevated southwesterly flow continues for at least one more overnight period which could lead to occasional advisory conditions tonight until the front moves through Wednesday.
Storms should redevelop overnight, especially across the Apalachee Bay, which will likely keep advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday. Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day, behind it we'll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn't be surprised if we see some of these higher amounts shift south.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 88 67 91 / 40 10 0 0 Panama City 71 84 69 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 67 86 63 88 / 20 0 0 0 Albany 67 85 64 87 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 87 66 88 / 60 20 0 0 Cross City 68 85 68 88 / 80 50 0 0 Apalachicola 73 83 72 85 / 60 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 728 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast reduces instability. It's possible the models are overdoing the convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.
Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear skies expected tomorrow afternoon.
Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a return to instability across across the region. Timing of any specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we'll need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.
After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep- layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions through the week.
Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early next week, likely allowing things to dry out.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF sites, however, it's close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Elevated southwesterly flow continues for at least one more overnight period which could lead to occasional advisory conditions tonight until the front moves through Wednesday.
Storms should redevelop overnight, especially across the Apalachee Bay, which will likely keep advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday. Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day, behind it we'll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn't be surprised if we see some of these higher amounts shift south.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 88 67 91 / 40 10 0 0 Panama City 71 84 69 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 67 86 63 88 / 20 0 0 0 Albany 67 85 64 87 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 87 66 88 / 60 20 0 0 Cross City 68 85 68 88 / 80 50 0 0 Apalachicola 73 83 72 85 / 60 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT HIDE  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.St. Marks
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:46 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:32 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:36 PM EDT 1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:56 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 02:46 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:32 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 01:36 PM EDT 1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:44 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
1 |
1 am |
0.7 |
2 am |
0.5 |
3 am |
0.4 |
4 am |
0.6 |
5 am |
0.9 |
6 am |
1.4 |
7 am |
1.8 |
8 am |
2.1 |
9 am |
2.3 |
10 am |
2.2 |
11 am |
2.1 |
12 pm |
2 |
1 pm |
1.9 |
2 pm |
1.9 |
3 pm |
2 |
4 pm |
2.3 |
5 pm |
2.6 |
6 pm |
2.8 |
7 pm |
2.8 |
8 pm |
2.7 |
9 pm |
2.5 |
10 pm |
2.2 |
11 pm |
1.9 |
Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:55 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:37 PM EDT 1.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT 0.42 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:55 AM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT 2.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:31 PM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 12:37 PM EDT 1.92 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:11 PM EDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aucilla River entrance, Florida, Tide feet
12 am |
0.7 |
1 am |
0.5 |
2 am |
0.4 |
3 am |
0.6 |
4 am |
0.9 |
5 am |
1.3 |
6 am |
1.7 |
7 am |
2 |
8 am |
2.2 |
9 am |
2.3 |
10 am |
2.2 |
11 am |
2 |
12 pm |
1.9 |
1 pm |
1.9 |
2 pm |
2 |
3 pm |
2.3 |
4 pm |
2.5 |
5 pm |
2.7 |
6 pm |
2.8 |
7 pm |
2.8 |
8 pm |
2.6 |
9 pm |
2.3 |
10 pm |
2 |
11 pm |
1.6 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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