Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 160535 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Now through Monday Night...

We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. westward across the FL Peninsula into the central GUlf. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. This feature operating on a weakly defined coastal surface boundary draped from southeast AL/southwest GA border to down across the AL/NW FL coastal waters, combined with more than sufficient deep layer environmental moisture (PWAT's 1.8 to 2.1") and daily instability has resulted in pockets of cold cloud tops => scattering of showers and storms. As we go through the remainder of the day, the expectation is coverage will begin to increase over the land zones and move/develop northward. Forecasters are beginning to see this in radar trends in central MS. At the present time, the environment is characterized by high CAPE and low shear, resulting in typical summer-time ordinary, pulse type storms, which could become strong at times contributing to locally brief strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail upon collapse of storm centroids. We cannot rule out a brief severe storm, but the overall threat is low. Frequent lightning and brief, localized heavy rains are also possible with the stronger storms. Storms lingering into the evening are expected to weaken with the loss of instability. A similar pattern remains in place as we open the work week on Monday and Monday night.

Rip current risk along area beaches is low. /10

Tuesday Through Saturday...

An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. A shortwave trough to our west begins to lift out of the region as the ridge nudges deeper into the Deep South. As ridging builds overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up. In the meantime, expect a diurnal convective pattern Tuesday through Thursday with high rain chances each afternoon. At this point, the highest POPs remain on Tuesday afternoon given the proximity of the shortwave trough. Pulse thunderstorms are possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear, so we can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main threats.

Beach Forecast - The rip current risk remains LOW on Tuesday and increases to a MODERATE on Wednesday and Thursday. The latest rip current probability guidance continues to trend toward a MODERATE risk by Friday. 07/mb
Show more