Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bagdad, FL

FXUS64 KMOB 291137 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 637 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

New Aviation

DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Now through Wednesday night...

Upper level shortwave energy moving through a mean upper trough over the Plains tilts clockwise an upper ridge over the eastern Conus.
Over the Southeast, the southern end of the ridge remains strong through mid week. Surface high pressure has built off the Carolina coast Monday, with a ridge having built southwest over the Southeast. The combination of subsidence and tilting of the upper ridge will move dry air in the mid and upper levels over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast through Tuesday, even as onshore flow in the lower levels keeps moisture levels in the lower levels high (with precipitable h20 values dropping from around 1.5" to around 1" over western portions of the forecast area). The drying out of the airmass over the western third of the forecast area will shift any convection further east from Monday, to areas along the eastern border for Tuesday. The high moisture levels over the eastern half of the forecast area shifts west Wednesday into Wednesday night, allowing convection to form further west, to near the Alabama River, on Wednesday.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms through the Near Term. High temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90 well inland from the coast, low to mid 80s closer to the coast are expected Tuesday. An increase in cloud cover Wednesday will limit daytime heating, limiting daytime temperatures to mid to upper 80s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s are expected north of I-10, mid to upper 60s south to the coast are expected Tuesday night. The westward shifting of the higher moisture levels along with a band of lower moisture working its way west over the northern Gulf coast will shift the warmer overnight temperatures to over and west of the Alabama, with mid to upper 60s expected.
East of the Alabama, low 60s are expected for low temperatures.

A Low Risk of Rip Currents today will become Moderate on Wednesday. /16

Thursday through Monday...

The upper ridge will move eastward and weaken Thursday as an upper level shortwave ejects northeast across the plains. A stronger trough moving across the midwestern states will send a cold front southward toward the coast by late Friday night. The approaching front combined with the weakening upper ridge will bring increased rain chances for the end of the week. Drier conditions return for early next week as upper ridging rebuilds over the southeast. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. /13
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