Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:41PM Thursday February 20, 2020 7:24 AM CST (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:37AMMoonset 4:04PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:202002202300;;820250 Fzus54 Kmob 201051 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 451 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-202300- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 451 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm cst this afternoon through Friday afternoon...
Today..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast this morning then becoming north 20 to 25 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds around 25 knots increasing to 25 to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 2 to 7 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds. Slight chance of rain in the evening.
Friday..North winds 25 to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots diminishing to 18 to 23 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Seas 3 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 13 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 13 to 18 knots diminishing to 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Sunday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 5 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers.
Monday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 451 Am Cst Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis..Light to moderate northeasterly winds become southerly this morning then switch to a strong northerly flow this afternoon as a low pressure system moves across the area. The strong offshore flow gradually diminishes Friday into Saturday. A light to moderate southeast flow develops on Sunday then becomes southwesterly on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 201033 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 433 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Thursday night/. A positively tilted upper trof located from the Great Lakes into the central Plains shifts eastward through tonight to extend from the extreme northeast states into the southeast states. During this transition, a surface low develops over the northwestern Gulf and progresses quickly eastward along a stalled frontal boundary located over the northern Gulf, later emerging in the western Atlantic late this afternoon. A massive surface high which extends across much of the central and eastern states meanwhile builds into the region and ushers colder air into the area, especially for the overnight hours. Elevated deep layer moisture is still in place over the area with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (about 175-200 percent of normal) then finally is replaced by progressively drier air flowing into the area this afternoon into tonight as the upper trof advances into the region. A combination of layer lifting seen from 290-300K, the passing surface low and a series of pesky shortwaves continuing to move across the area ahead of the approaching upper trof will support categorical pops over the entire area today then dry conditions develop early this evening as the drier air flows into the region. Despite a stratiform rain process, moist soil conditions and rainfall totals of up to around 1.5-2.0 inches may lead to some non-river flooding concerns so have opted to keep the current flood watch in place well inland and let the next shift reassess. Highs today mainly range from 50 to 55 well inland to 60 to 65 closer to the coast. Lows tonight range from the lower 30s well inland to the upper 30s close to the coast. A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tonight. /29

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/. Dry conditions continue over the area on Friday as a large surface high settles over the eastern states. Highs will be mainly in the lower 50s. Upper level northwest flow and sfc high pressure will continue through Saturday, maintaining clear skies and cool conditions. Temps will continue below normal on Saturday with highs in the mid and upper 50s and lows in the upper 20s/low 30s Friday night and mid/upper 30s inland to low 40s along the coast Saturday night. 29/13

EXTENDED TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/. The extended term will begin as an upper level, southern-stream trough moves off over the Atlantic and upper level ridging begins to advance over the southeastern CONUS. This ridge will dominate through much of the weekend, but another trough will develop over the southwestern CONUS early Sunday. This feature will progress eastward and then move across the region early next week. A series of shortwaves will then move along the flow into midweek. By early Sunday, high pressure will begin to shift east and a low pressure system will develop east of the Four Corners. By Monday, this low will progress over the upper Mississippi Valley, with a warm front over the Tennessee Valley and a cold front draped over the ARKLATEX region. This will put our area in the warm sector Monday morning. Cold FROPA is then expected over our area by Tuesday morning. A reinforcing cold front is then expected to move through the area into midweek.

For sensible weather, dry and clear conditions will be the story through Saturday. Rain chances will return once again by Sunday afternoon, with better chances late Sunday through Monday. At this time, did not mention thunder on Monday due to little to no instability shown by model guidance; but, this will continue to be monitored. A continued unsettled pattern is likely to then persist through the rest of the extended term. /26

MARINE. Light to moderate northeasterly winds become southerly this morning then switch to a strong northerly flow this afternoon as a low pressure system moves across the area. The strong offshore flow gradually diminishes Friday into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the area beginning early this afternoon and continuing through Friday afternoon before ending over the near shore waters, then ends over the 20-60 nm portion by late Friday evening. A light to moderate southeast flow develops on Sunday then becomes southwesterly on Monday. /29

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Mobile 59 35 53 33 58 38 64 52 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 50 Pensacola 65 39 54 36 57 42 62 54 / 90 20 0 0 0 0 0 40 Destin 67 42 53 38 56 43 61 55 / 90 30 0 0 0 0 0 40 Evergreen 59 35 53 29 59 35 63 47 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 0 60 Waynesboro 51 31 50 28 57 34 62 48 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 10 70 Camden 55 33 50 29 58 35 62 47 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 10 70 Crestview 64 38 53 32 58 35 64 50 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 40

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for ALZ051>055-057-058.

FL . None. MS . Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ067.

GM . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Friday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST Friday night for GMZ670-675.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi55 min SSE 1 G 1.9 62°F 1019.1 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi55 min 63°F 1018.6 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi55 min 65°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi35 min E 9.7 G 14 64°F 64°F2 ft1018.3 hPa
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi100 min 61°F 1018 hPa60°F

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi89 minESE 310.00 miOvercast62°F57°F84%1017.5 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi29 minSE 710.00 miOvercast61°F59°F93%1017.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi32 minESE 510.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1018.5 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi89 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F59°F94%1018.4 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi89 minENE 510.00 miOvercast62°F59°F90%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNDZ

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E7E95N5N7E3CalmCalmN11N9N7N5N8N5NE8NE8--------E4SE3SE6
1 day agoS5S6S7S8S8S11S6S8S8S5S4S5S73CalmS33S3--CalmNE8CalmNE5N6
2 days ago--E4SE4--S4S5S3S6S6S6S4SE3--SE5SE4SE5SE4SE5SE5SE4SE3E3--S5

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:36 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:49 AM CST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:19 PM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.20.40.60.81.11.21.41.41.4

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:36 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:25 AM CST     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:40 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:32 PM CST     1.44 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.80.50.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.811.21.31.41.41.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.