Saturday, September21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bagdad, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:48PM Saturday September 21, 2019 10:03 AM CDT (15:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 1:15PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ655 Expires:201909212145;;118993 Fzus54 Kmob 210942 Cwfmob Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mobile Al 442 Am Cdt Sat Sep 21 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters Okaloosa Walton County Line To Pascagoula Out 60 Nm Seas Are Given As Significant Wave Height...which Is The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves. Individual Waves May Be More Than Twice The Significant Wave Height. Winds And Seas Will Be Higher In And Around Thunderstorms. Gmz650-655-212145- Coastal Waters From Pensacola Fl To Pascagoula Ms Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl To Pensacola Fl Out 20 Nm- 442 Am Cdt Sat Sep 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Today..East winds 18 to 23 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tonight..East winds 13 to 18 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 8 seconds.
Sunday..East winds 13 to 18 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Monday..East winds 8 to 13 knots becoming southeast. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant wave period 7 seconds.
Monday night..Southwest winds 3 to 8 knots becoming northwest. Seas around 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tuesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Tuesday night..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant wave period 6 seconds.
Wednesday..West winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas around 1 foot.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 442 Am Cdt Sat Sep 21 2019
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will extend from the western atlantic to the northern gulf through the weekend. This pattern will result in a continued moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow with elevated seas over the marine area through early Sunday morning. Winds will become lighter and more southwesterly to westerly early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bagdad, FL
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location: 30.57, -87.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 211122
afdmob
area forecast discussion
national weather service mobile al
622 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019

Discussion Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

Aviation
12z issuance... A weak disturbance will bring scattered mid level
clouds to the TAF sites this morning. A few showers have developed
over the coastal waters and have moved northward on to the
beaches. Drier low level air just north of the coast should help
to keep conditions dry at the TAF sites. Although a brief morning
sprinkle or light shower is possible, chances remain too low to
include in the latest aviation forecast. Regardless,VFR cigs
should prevail this morning.

The disturbance moves west by midday with skies clearing by
afternoon, save a few fair weather cumulus.VFR CIGS and vsbys
should persist through tonight.

East-southeast winds will increase later this morning at greater
than 10 kts, with higher gusts. Winds will diminish to 8 kts or
less overnight, with the higher winds at kbfm and kpns tonight.

Jlh

Prev discussion issued 431 am cdt Sat sep 21 2019
near term now through Saturday night ...

a broad mid level ridge of high pressure will hold strong across
ms al ga northern fl through tonight, while a surface ridge of
high pressure remains oriented across the western atlantic and the
southeastern states. A slight increase in layer moisture along
with weak ascent provided by a subtle impulse pushing westward
across the northern gulf on the southern periphery of the mid
level ridge will aid in the development of a few rain showers
across far southwestern portions of our forecast area and the
adjacent marine zones this morning. We will carry a slight
(15-20%) chance of rain in the forecast roughly southwest of a
wiggins, ms, to orange beach, al, line this morning. The weak
shortwave and its associated moisture will continue to advance
west of the area this afternoon, though a shower or two may still
continue into early this afternoon in the vicinity of stone
county, ms. Otherwise, a very dry and subsident deep layer
airmass will reside across the rest of the forecast area today and
tonight underneath the building ridge aloft. We have continued to
trend forecast highs toward the warmest guidance today, with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mostly clear and dry
conditions are anticipated for tonight, with seasonable low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland, and 70-75 near the
immediate coast and beaches.

The persistent easterly fetch over the gulf of mexico will continue
to generate 3-4 ft swell with 7-8 second periods that will propagate
toward our local beaches today and tonight. This longer period
swell, along with increased tidal ranges and tide outgoing through
the day will result in a continued high risk of deadly rip currents
and elevated surf along local beaches through tonight. 21
short term Sunday through Monday night ...

high pressure both surface and aloft will rebuild over the
southeast u.S. By Sunday and persist into Monday. A very dry
airmass aloft will advect westward into the region and prohibit
convective development. High temperatures will remain above normal
through the short term period. Highs are expected into the lower
90s across most locations, except upper 80s along the beaches. Low
temperatures will be near average, with lows in the middle 60s
inland, to lower 70s along the coast.

A persistent easterly fetch across the northern gulf waters will
continue to support two to four foot long period swell, which is
favorable for strong rip current development as it propogates
towards our beaches. This swell combined with large tidal ranges
and an outgoing tide during the day both Sunday and Monday, will
keep the threat for rip currents high along all area beaches.

Beach goers are urged to follow the directions of local beach
officials and remain out of the water during periods of high rip
current danger. Jlh
long term Tuesday through Friday ...

the upper ridge will temporarily break down and retreat
southeastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a series of mid upper
level shortwaves move across the northern tier of the country. A
weak cold front will push into northern portions of the CWA on
Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across inland areas in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. The
front should stall out Tuesday night into Wednesday across
interior south alabama and continue the potential for mainly
diurnally favored convection into Wednesday. In addition, return
southerly flow and strong heating across coastal counties should
support a developing sea-breeze circulation Wednesday afternoon,
with isolated storms anticipated. Temperatures should remain above
seasonal levels with highs in the lower to middle 90s, with lows
ranging from around 70 degrees across interior sections, to the
lower and middle 70s along the immediate beaches.

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the eastern half of the
u.S. For the end of next week into next weekend. In fact, much of
the ensemble model guidance suggests mid level heights on the
order of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal. This should
result in a return to mainly convection free weather and
unseasonably hot temperatures. The strong ridging aloft should
support high temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above average, which
results in most locations reaching back into the middle to upper
90s by the end of the extended forecast period. Low temperatures
should also remain warm in the lower to middle 70s. Long range
model projections suggest that summer type weather will persist
through the end of the month and potentially into the first part
of october. Jlh
marine...

a surface ridge of high pressure will continue to extend
from the western atlantic to the northern gulf through the weekend.

This pattern will result in a continued moderate to occasionally
strong easterly flow over the marine area through early Sunday
morning. We will keep the small craft advisory in effect for the
coastal marine zones through early this afternoon, and have also
opted to extend the advisory for the 20-60 nm marine zones through
early Sunday morning as occasionally strong easterly flow continues
along with seas up to 6-7 feet. A lighter easterly flow returns
Sunday into early Monday, before a more diurnally driven flow
pattern (southwest during the day, west to northwest at night)
returns Monday through Wednesday as surface ridging builds over the
gulf. 21

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... High rip current risk through Monday evening for alz265-266.

Fl... High rip current risk through Monday evening for flz202-204-206.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz631-
632-650-655.

Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt Sunday for gmz670-675.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 16 mi45 min ESE 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 85°F1023.2 hPa
PPTA1 35 mi33 min 80°F 1022.7 hPa
WBYA1 44 mi45 min 83°F
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 45 mi33 min E 19 G 23 80°F 84°F1022.2 hPa75°F
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 45 mi78 min 77°F 1022 hPa70°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 46 mi93 min ENE 14 1022 hPa
MHPA1 - Meaher Park, AL 50 mi33 min E 7 78°F 1023.4 hPa

Wind History for Pensacola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milton, Whiting Field South, FL9 mi67 minE 710.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1022 hPa
Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North, FL11 mi67 minE 1010.00 miFair77°F66°F71%1022.1 hPa
Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport, FL12 mi70 minE 710.00 miFair79°F71°F77%1023 hPa
Hurlburt Field, FL20 mi67 minE 1310.00 miFair79°F70°F75%1022.8 hPa
Pensacola Naval Air Station, FL22 mi67 minE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F73°F77%1022.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNDZ

Wind History from NDZ (wind in knots)
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E9E6E5S5S5S4CalmCalmN3NE3N4NE7E7E8E8E8E11E9E7
1 day agoSE13SE12SE9SE11SE11SE8
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S7S5S7S4CalmE3E4NE5CalmE6E5E9E8E8E6E8E9E10
2 days ago43NW4NW63N63CalmSE73CalmNW4NW4CalmW33CalmN3E8E10E10E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Bay Point, Blackwater River, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Bay Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:12 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:47 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:49 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.71.91.9221.91.81.61.41.20.90.70.50.40.30.30.40.50.60.70.91.1

Tide / Current Tables for Lora Point, Escambia Bay, Pensacola Bay, Florida
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Lora Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:25 AM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:15 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:43 PM CDT     Last Quarter
Sat -- 11:50 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.81.9221.91.81.71.51.210.80.60.50.40.30.30.40.50.70.811.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.