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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay- 335 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 335 Am Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow continues into Saturday. The onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow develops Sunday into Sunday night behind the front with gusts to gale force possible over the gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 081129 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 529 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

General VFR conditions today are expected to drop to mid/low MVFR levels tonight with fog and/or rainshowers possible after 06z.
Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected.
/16

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 522 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft has returned to our forecast early this morning in the wake of shortwave ridging that has shifted to our east and also ahead of the next large scale trough that is starting to deepen across the western CONUS. Surface high pressure is also shifting eastward across the southeastern states and the western Atlantic early this morning while the next area of surface low pressure is developing in the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandles and western OK. IR/WV satellite imagery indicates high level cloud cover increasing in coverage across our forecast area early this morning in advance of a shortwave perturbation near the TX/LA border and adjacent northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Deep layer moisture remains very limited at the moment over our CWA with precipitable water values still only averaging between 0.5 and 0.75 inches, so dry weather conditions remain prevalent.
Our forecast area still remains on the western periphery of the surface ridge axis, so temperatures remain rather cool in the upper 30s to lower 40s over inland areas, and warmer in the upper 40s to mid 50s along the coast where low level moisture is starting to trend higher. There is some potential for patchy fog development over portions of southeast MS and southwest AL early this morning where T/Td spreads are near saturation, but the increasing high cloud cover may be a limiting factor.

Increasingly unsettled weather conditions are anticipated across our forecast area during the next 48-60 hours, particularly going into the weekend as the next upper level system and associated cold front approaches our region. For today, the aforementioned shortwave impulse over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to lift northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast region within the SW flow aloft. We expect a gradual increase in deep layer moisture as this feature approaches, with precipitable water values looking to rise to between 1.1 and 1.4 inches by this afternoon and evening. A low level southerly flow/warm advection pattern will also develop today between ridging to our east and the low pressure system over the Plains. Surface dewpoints are expected to increase as the day progresses, generally improving into the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 60s along the coast by this afternoon. Weak ascent in association with the approaching shortwave trough as well as with low level isentropic processes will support keeping a small chance of rain showers in the forecast across much of the area this afternoon into tonight as moisture gradually improves.
Rainfall amounts should be spotty and generally light across the area, with perhaps a few heavier showers locally producing in excess of a tenth to quarter inch (CAMs signal the western FL panhandle coast for potential of a few heavier showers later tonight). Highs today are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s over south central AL and the interior western FL panhandle (in closer proximity to the surface ridge) and around 70 over the rest of southwest AL and southeast MS. Lows tonight should trend warmer in the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coast. Forecast soundings tonight favor at least patchy fog development over much of the area, though SREF probabilities of visibility less than 1 mile are trending higher.
We will need to monitor trends for dense fog potential across portions of our region late tonight into early Saturday morning.

The upper level trough to our west is forecast to amplify across the central and southern Plains on Saturday and take on a bit of a positive tilt as it progresses toward the Mississippi Valley region through late Saturday night. A strong mid to upper level jet will spread east of the Mississippi Valley Saturday night and eventually into the north central Gulf Coast region by Sunday morning ahead of the advancing trough axis. A zone of larger scale ascent subsequently spreads into our forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning with widespread coverage of rain showers across our region during this time. Increasing low level S-SW flow will aid in warm/moist advection with surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s Saturday afternoon into Saturday night in advance of the upper trough and surface cold front. Instability within the warm sector positioned across our CWA does not look overly impressive ahead of the system, with some of the latest higher resolution CAMs only indicating MLCAPE values as high as 500-900 J/KG across most of our CWA between 06-12Z Sunday ahead of the advancing front. 850 mb jet only still only looks to strengthen to about 35-40 kt at best over our area late Saturday night. As the previous shift mentioned, DCAPE values between 400-800 J/KG in association with some drier air aloft could lend to strong wind potential with a few storms late Saturday night. 0-1 km SRH values look limited to between 100-200 m2/s2 ahead of and along the boundary, so a quick tornado spinup cannot be entirely ruled out. That said, the overall severe potential with this system looks very marginal over our region and agree with the Day 2 Marginal severe risk from SPC that is outlooked over our CWA. The eastward progression of the system has trended a little slower, so rain chances will remain high into Sunday morning, especially over the eastern half of our area before rain chances dwindle from west to east into the early to mid afternoon hours. A tight MSLP gradient behind the passing front will result in breezy northwesterly winds with some gusts of 30-40 mph possible following frontal passage late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. Increasing onshore flow and swell will result in an increasing rip current risk with some build in the surf Friday night through the weekend. A HIGH rip current risk is anticipated Saturday into Sunday with surf heights building up to 3-4 ft in the surf zone.

Highs Saturday will warm into the mid 70s, but will be turning colder on Sunday following the passage of the front (highs Sunday may not make it out of the 50s over southeast MS and interior southwest AL). /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

No significant changes were made to the rest of the extended forecast package. Surface high pressure will build into our region on Monday and remains anchored over the eastern and southeastern U.S. through the week. The subsident pattern combined with a persistent north to northeasterly surface wind will keep conditions dry and cool through Thursday. High temperatures top out in the 50s and perhaps lower 60s later in the week with lows ranging from the 30s inland to the lower and middle 40s along the coast. The coldest nights will be on Sunday and Monday nights as strong radiational cooling and cold air advection allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s over inland locations with middle 30s to lower 40s along the immediate coast. 14/21

MARINE...
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Light to at times moderate onshore flow today will strengthen to strong this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft level winds appear Saturday night, with near gale force winds/above gale force gusts on Sunday as the front crosses area coastal waters. These times are just outside of issuance period at this time, so am leaving to following shifts. Timing of frontal passage over area waters continues to be Sunday, though the latest runs are a bit earlier than previous runs. Northerly winds ease along with shifting to easterly Monday through Monday night as surface high pressure passes north of the forecast area. /16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 71 61 76 53 61 34 55 34 / 20 20 60 90 40 0 0 0 Pensacola 70 63 75 58 67 37 55 38 / 20 40 70 90 60 10 0 0 Destin 69 63 74 63 70 39 57 41 / 20 40 70 90 80 10 0 0 Evergreen 67 57 76 55 62 31 54 29 / 10 30 70 90 60 10 0 0 Waynesboro 70 58 77 49 58 30 54 29 / 10 20 50 90 30 0 0 0 Camden 67 57 75 51 59 30 51 28 / 10 30 60 90 60 10 0 0 Crestview 68 58 75 59 66 32 55 30 / 20 30 70 90 80 10 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Great Point Clear
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Fri -- 02:17 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM CST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:53 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:41 PM CST     1.29 feet High Tide
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Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Fri -- 02:17 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:26 AM CST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:53 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:44 PM CST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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