Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairhope, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:52PM Friday December 13, 2019 2:32 PM CST (20:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:26PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 204 Pm Cst Fri Dec 13 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..North winds 3 to 8 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Patchy dense fog. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northwest winds 3 to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 3 to 8 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..West winds 3 to 8 knots becoming east. Waves less than 1 foot.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 18 to 23 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 204 Pm Cst Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis..Areas of dense fog will continue to form over the near shore waters of alabama and northwest florida through this afternoon and likely through tonight. A light northerly flow will continue to develop through this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure over the marine area continues to move east. A light to moderate northwest flow is expected late tonight through Saturday afternoon as a surface ridge of high pressure to the west shifts east. Southerly winds will develop Sunday then build through early next week in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairhope, AL
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location: 30.57, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 131836 AAA AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Mobile AL 1236 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2019

DISCUSSION. See updated information for land areas and aviation discussion below.

UPDATE. The widespread dense fog that formed over coastal areas of Northwest Florida, Alabama and lower portions of inland southeast Mississippi will continue to slowly lift through mid to late afternoon. Some areas near the coast will likely see patchy dense fog reducing visibilities to 1/4 of a mile or less through the remainder of today. Inland areas will likely see patchy fog throughout the day. Most current model guidance reintroduce more widespread dense fog this evening and overnight. As a result a dense fog advisory will be possible again, occurring mostly over lower and coastal sections of the forecast area this evening and overnight. 32/ee

AVIATION. 18Z issuance . Expect LIFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through about 14.02z followed by LIFR to VLIFR cigs and visibilities through 14.15z, then MVFR to VFR cigs and visibilities through 14.18z. Winds will be mostly northwest to north 6 knots or less through 14.12z gradually shifting east then southeast at 5 to 8 knots through 14.18z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon through early this evening. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 1001 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/

DISCUSSION . See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE . A Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect for the coastal counties of Northwest Florida and Alabama including lower portions of inland Southeast Mississippi through noon today. Visibilities lowering to 1/4 of mile or less at times can be expected in the advisory area. For the rest of today expect mostly scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms for most locations in the forecast area through late this afternoon. A weak area of low pressure with an associated warm front stretching east over the north central Gulf, south of the Al/MS/NWFL coast this morning, will continue to shift mostly east through this evening. North of the low center and warm front showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated in the boundary layer due to better instability continuing aloft through early this evening. With wetbulb 0 values remaining less than 10.5 kft over inland areas through this afternoon some hail may still be possible with some of the thunderstorms that do develop today. 32/ee

MARINE . Areas of fog, becoming dense at times, will continue to form over the near shore waters of Alabama and Northwest Florida through early to mid afternoon today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move mostly east through this afternoon. Gusty winds and maybe some hail will be possible with some of the stronger thunderstorms that may develop through this afternoon. Easterly winds will continue to slowly diminish through this morning followed by a light northerly flow this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure and associated warm front over the north central gulf continue to move east. A light to moderate northwest flow is expected late tonight through Saturday afternoon as a surface ridge of high pressure to the west shifts east. Southerly winds will develop Sunday then build through early next week in response to a strong cold front approaching from the west.

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 547 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/

DISCUSSION . Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION . 12Z issuance . VLIFR to IFR ceilings with patchy fog over the area improve to predominately IFR ceilings near midday. IFR ceilings prevail over the area through much of the remainder of the period, except for MVFR ceilings over the western portion of the area. Numerous showers are expected mainly over the eastern portion of the area through 15Z then numerous to potentially widespread showers shift eastward across the area this afternoon into this evening. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible mainly over the western Florida panhandle. Northeast winds around 5 knots gradually become northwest through the day, and may briefly become southeast over the western Florida panhandle around midday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 359 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Friday night/ . An upper trof over the central states advances into the eastern states overnight, taking on a slight negative tilt in the process. Currently, a frontal boundary extends from just south of Apalachicola to a weak surface low located just southeast of Plaquemines Parish. As the upper trof advances eastward, there is considerable uncertainty with the trajectory of the surface low today which could move inland as far west as Baldwin county or further east near Panama City. The CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) have markedly different solutions based on varying handling of the surface low, but the WRF-ARW most closely matches current radar trends. While confidence is low, have leaned close to the WRF-ARW which takes the surface low to near Panama City, then the surface low zips off across the extreme southeast states this evening before moving towards New England late tonight. During this transition, a series of shortwaves embedded within the approaching upper trof will favor two rounds of rain over the area, the first mainly affecting the eastern portion this morning followed by another round moving eastward across the area this afternoon into this evening. Predominately elevated instability will allow for isolated embedded thunderstorms to develop over portions of the western Florida panhandle and south central Alabama late this morning through this evening. The frontal boundary east of the surface low may lift briefly northward into the coastal portions of Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties today, but with an 850 mb flow of at best 25 knots, 0-1 km Helicity values will be less than 100 m2/s2 and MLCAPE values look rather low and at best 300 J/kg. Based on this and the anticipated movement of the surface low, am not expecting strong or severe storm development. Highs today range from around 60 well inland to the upper 60s near the coast, then lows tonight range from the mid 40s well inland to around 50 at the coast. /29

SHORT TERM /Saturday Through Sunday night/ . Clearing skies and dry weather expected Saturday as Friday's system departs to the east and a zonal flow pattern sets up aloft. Surface high pressure builds into the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf Sunday, bringing an onshore flow back to the local area and beginning the gradual process of returning Gulf moisture to the region. Still, no rain expected as upper-level flow remains zonal. We do see a gradual warming trend as a result of the returning southerly winds, with highs in the mid 60s Saturday and upper 60s to low 70s Sunday. Lows dip into the low to mid 40s Saturday night and mid to upper 50s Sunday night. /49

LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/ . Upper troughing amplifies over the central CONUS early next week with an unsettled southwesterly flow setting up downstream over the local area. A surface trough extending from northeast Texas up into Kentucky and the southern Ohio Valley eventually deepens and closes off into an elongated surface low. A cold front associated with this low pushes southeast from the Ark-La-Tex region into the lower Mississippi River Valley and Deep South, approaching the local area late Monday into Monday night. Rain chances increase along and ahead of the front as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. Could see some gusty winds with any stronger storms along the front. The front itself pushes through Monday night and a cool and dry northerly flow sets up in its wake Tuesday into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the eastern CONUS. Winds continue veering to easterly by Thursday with dry weather expected as the surface high continues to push east over the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast.

Temps will be warm on Monday with onshore flow transporting warm and moist Gulf air into the region. Expect mid to upper 70s areawide. Dramatic change in temps occurs on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front, followed by highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday and mid 50s on Thursday. Low temps also plummet in the wake of the front, with mid to upper 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s along the coast by Wednesday night. /49

MARINE . A surface low pressure, currently south of Louisiana, will continue to progress northeastward over the northern Gulf through this afternoon before progressing into northern Florida by this evening. Easterly winds and seas will decrease through early this morning. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisories will be allowed to expire at 6AM. Winds will then become more northerly this afternoon as the low passes over the region. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected this morning through this afternoon. In fact, a few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible during this time as well as the potential for waterspouts. Light to moderate northwesterly flow is then expected overnight tonight and will persist through Saturday. Ahead of an advancing cold front from the west, light to moderate southerly flow will take hold for late weekend and into early next week. In the wake of this front, strong northerly flow will be likely into midweek. /26

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AL . None. FL . None. MS . None. GM . Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ630>636- 650-655.



This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 10 mi62 min 58°F 1010 hPa57°F
WBYA1 11 mi44 min 59°F
PTOA1 11 mi44 min 53°F 53°F
MBPA1 12 mi44 min 55°F 55°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 12 mi44 min N 6 G 7 61°F 58°F1010.6 hPa
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 13 mi56 min 53°F 58°F1010.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 23 mi62 min NNE 9.9 54°F 1009.8 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi32 min N 11 G 11 54°F 1010 hPa (-3.8)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi44 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 56°F 1009.7 hPa
PPTA1 26 mi32 min 57°F 1009.8 hPa (-4.7)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 29 mi62 min NE 8.9 11°F 1010.8 hPa
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 33 mi47 min N 6 56°F 1012 hPa56°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 36 mi44 min NE 2.9 G 6 56°F 59°F1010.4 hPa
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi22 min NE 12 G 16 64°F 66°F1009.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi56 min 59°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi50 min NNE 7 G 8.9 56°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL8 mi37 minNE 41.50 miFog/Mist55°F55°F100%1009.8 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL12 mi39 minN 51.75 miFog/Mist56°F54°F93%1010.7 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi96 minNNE 50.50 miFog54°F53°F97%1011.4 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi57 minE 65.00 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQF

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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NE7NE6E8NE6NE6NE6NE7N5NE5NE6NE4E5E3NE4NE3E5CalmNE4E5Calm
1 day agoN10N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:39 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:57 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:13 AM CST     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:25 PM CST     1.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.41.20.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.811.21.31.51.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:40 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:10 AM CST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:26 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.71.51.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.20.10.40.60.91.11.31.41.61.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.