Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairhope, AL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:23PM Monday October 14, 2019 8:02 PM CDT (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:12PMMoonset 7:26AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 713 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming east. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots becoming south. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming west. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 8 to 13 knots becoming north. Waves around 1 foot. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday..North winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..East winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 8 to 13 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 Synopsis For Pascagoula Ms To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 60 Nm Including Major Area Bays And Sounds- 713 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis..A stalled frontal boundary over the marine area this evening will begin to shift inland late tonight and early Tuesday. A light to moderate northerly flow north of the front this evening will shift mostly southeast then south early Tuesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front will move across the marine area early Wednesday leading to a moderate offshore flow Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds and waves will be higher near scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms ahead and along the the front late Tuesday through early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairhope, AL
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location: 30.57, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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Fxus64 kmob 142350 aaa
afdmob
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service mobile al
650 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019

Discussion See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

Update Will be updating to increase pops across the area for
the rest of the night as numerous patches of light to moderate
rain continue to move across the area. Will also be making other
minor adjustments. Update out soon. 29

Aviation
00z issuance... Numerous patches of light to moderate rain will
continue to move across much of the area through the period.

Isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly on
Tuesday. PredominatelyVFR ceilings will lower to ifr MVFR
later tonight. Ceilings over interior areas remain near ifr on
Tuesday while closer to the coast MVFR toVFR ceilings are
expected. Northerly winds near 5 knots become easterly overnight.

An easterly flow near 5 knots continues over interior areas on
Tuesday while a southerly flow develops closer to the coast. 29

Prev discussion issued 352 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019
near term now through Tuesday ... The stalled boundary along the
coast will begin to move back north as a warm front tonight in
response to developing low pressure across the southern plains.

Weak shortwaves moving through the zonal flow aloft will continue
to generate patches of generally light to occasionally moderate
showers through this evening. A stronger shortwave will move
through the flow late tonight into Tuesday morning causing
numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the warm front
as it lifts just north of our area. Instability increases south
of the warm front through the afternoon and there is potential of
an isolated strong or severe storm to develop. SPC has outlined a
marginal risk for severe storms during the day on Tuesday. However,
weak mid-level lapse rates will limit the threat and any severe
risk will primarily be diurnally driven and decrease after sunset.

Nailing down the areas that will receive the higher rainfall amounts
has been tough and will be dependent on just where the warm front
ends up. However, mesoscale and global models have come into much
better agreement on shifting the heavier totals just north of the
area and more across central alabama. As a result, we will be
removing the elevated flood threat from our area. The limited
threat area will also be moved northward where some isolated
locally heavy rain and flooding will remain possible.

Lows tonight will range from the mid and upper 60s over inland
areas to the low to mid 70s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday
will range from the mid and upper 70s across the north to low to
mid 80s near the coast. 13
short term Tuesday night through Thursday night ... Upper level
shortwaves continuing to move east across the area over the
surface frontal boundary early in the short term period will
maintain the likelihood of widespread rain and a few thunderstorms
early Tuesday night, then a slight decrease in chances late as
most of the model data indicate that the majority of the upper
energy will be east of our area by around 12z Wednesday. However,
a second strong cold front will be approaching the forecast area
from the northwest by around 12z Wednesday, and this will likely
help maintain chances for showers and storms into Wednesday
morning. During the evening on Tuesday into the early predawn
hours on Wednesday we could still see some lingering pockets of
heavier rainfall, and a limited threat of flash flooding will
continue over portions of our interior counties, generally from
southern perry county ms eastward into washington county al and
then eastward (generally along highway 84 corridor) across south
central al through Tuesday night. Wpc continues to have most of
our interior southwest and south central al counties, and wayne
county ms, outlooked for a slight possibility of excessive
rainfall from the near term period and into the early part of the
short term period (through late Tuesday night). Models are in
fairly good agreement with moving the approaching cold front
rapidly across the area Wednesday morning, clearing to the east by
the middle part of the afternoon. With this frontal passage by
Wednesday afternoon, a cooler and drier airmass moving into the
area will end the rain chances.

Mostly dry and cool conditions are expected Wednesday night
through Thursday night as a high pressure ridge axis shifts east
across the region in the wake of the front. Lows Tuesday night
ranging from the mid 60s inland to the mid and even a few upper 70s
coastal, cooling to upper 40s and lower 50s inland and upper 50s to
lower 60s coastal by Wednesday and Thursday nights as the high
pressure moves across the area. Highs on Wednesday mainly in the 70s
and 80s ahead of the front, but likely beginning to cool northwest
counties Wednesday afternoon as the front moves through. Highs
Thursday will be a little cooler, mainly in the low to mid 70s. Lows
Tuesday night ranging from the upper 60s north to lower 70s
south. Colder both Wednesday and Thursday nights, with lows
ranging from the low to mid 40s over interior areas to low to mid
50s closer to the coast. 12
long term Friday through Monday ... The cool and dry high
pressure will begin to move east of the area on Friday, and then off
the atlantic coast Saturday and Sunday. A moist return flow of the
gulf develops bringing moderating temperatures again as well as
increased rain chances. Some models are becoming more consistent
with a weak low pressure area developing along the southern end of
the frontal boundary over the southwestern gulf and lifting north
toward the central gulf coast by the weekend. It appears that
this will not be tropical in nature at this time, with which nhc
also concurs. All of this will likely combine to produce another
good shot at showers and thunderstorms by the weekend and into the
early part of next week.

Highs Friday mainly in the 70s across most of the region, warming to
the 80s by the weekend and into early next week. Friday night lows
ranging from the upper 50s far north to lower 60s south. Lows
warming into the lower to mid 60s inland to lower 70s coastal over
the weekend and into the early part of next week. 12
marine... A southerly flow will return to the bays and near shore
gulf waters as a stalled front lifts north tonight. The southerly
flow becomes southwesterly Tuesday night as another cold front
approaches the marine area. This front will move across the marine
area by Wednesday afternoon with a moderate northerly flow
Wednesday night into Thursday. 13

Mob watches warnings advisories
Al... None.

Fl... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

This product is also available on the web at:
http: weather.Gov mob


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL 10 mi77 min 75°F 1017 hPa71°F
WBYA1 11 mi62 min 80°F
PTOA1 11 mi62 min 71°F 68°F
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 12 mi62 min N 5.1 G 7 76°F 79°F1018 hPa (+1.0)
MBPA1 12 mi62 min 72°F 68°F
OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL 13 mi62 min 71°F 81°F1017.9 hPa (+0.9)
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 17 mi92 min NNE 7 75°F 1017.3 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 23 mi62 min N 9.9 73°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 25 mi62 min N 16 G 17 74°F 1017.5 hPa (+1.2)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 25 mi62 min N 16 G 18 75°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.9)
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 29 mi62 min NNE 12 74°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 33 mi77 min NNE 7 74°F 1018 hPa69°F
PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL 36 mi62 min NNE 4.1 G 6 74°F 81°F1017.4 hPa (+1.0)
42012 - Orange Beach AL Buoy 39 mi42 min NNE 12 G 14 78°F 83°F1017.4 hPa75°F
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 40 mi62 min 80°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 42 mi68 min NE 13 G 15 74°F 1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sonny Callahan Airport, AL8 mi67 minNNE 410.00 miLight Rain72°F68°F88%1017.6 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport, AL12 mi69 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F69°F87%1018.1 hPa
Mobile, Mobile Regional Airport, AL22 mi66 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast70°F68°F93%1017.8 hPa
Jack Edwards Airport, AL22 mi67 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F71°F93%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCQF

Wind History from CQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3N4NE4NE3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE3CalmNW4NW5NW4NW4CalmN3N5N5
1 day agoN5N4N3N5N5NE5N5N4CalmCalmCalmN3NE4N4NW5CalmNW3NW5NW4CalmNW3NW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6N7N6N6N5N6N5NW8NW7NW6NW4NW4N4

Tide / Current Tables for Great Point Clear, Mobile Bay, Alabama
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Great Point Clear
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:08 AM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:34 AM CDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.31.31.21.110.80.70.60.60.70.80.80.911.11.21.21.21.21.31.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama
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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:11 AM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:31 AM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.51.41.31.210.90.80.70.70.70.80.911.11.21.31.31.31.31.41.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Mobile/Pensacola, FL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.