Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fernandina Beach, FL

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Evening, Mainly for Locations West of I-95

- Dense Fog Possible Towards Sunrise on Friday.

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within Portions of the St.
Johns River Basin.

Warm, moist, and fairly unstable conditions exist ahead of an approaching cold front this afternoon. The front is located from northeast GA, then southwest to the far western FL panhandle and into the Gulf. Low level convergence and the instability are helping to generate scattered showers this afternoon as of 2 PM, with MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg and PWAT of near 1.75 inches. This should be enough for isolated thunderstorm generation this afternoon, with the best chances west of I-95 and over northeast FL. This is supported by the RRFS guidance.
Not much forcing aloft so this is mainly diurnally driven convection. Latest runs of some of the guidance did not do a credible job with the current radar presentation, so we needed to make some upward adjustments in the POPs, which was carried over into the tonight period. Overall, there should be a waning of convection this evening through midnight, but there probably will be a lingering shower or two after midnight. In addition, as winds diminish tonight, there is a good chance for areas of dense fog across much of our area. Lows tonight will remain muggy ahead of the front, in the upper 60s to near 70.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense Fog Possible Early on Friday Morning.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Possible on Friday Afternoon and Evening.

A cold front will begin to push through on Friday, clearing south of the area by Friday Night. Southwesterly winds ahead of the the front will veer to northwesterly behind the front.
Some showers is expected to develop ahead of the front as it pushes through the area, mainly across SE GA and towards coastal locations by the evening hours. Northwesterly-northerly winds will bring cool and dry conditions across the area behind the frontal passage as high pressure builds over the area.

Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 80s Friday afternoon.
Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler behind the front on Saturday with daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with cooler temperatures across SE GA.

Overnight Lows on Friday night will begin in the mid 50s across SE GA and in the mid 60s across NE FL. By Saturday Night, cooler air continue to filter into the area as much of the area will have Lows in the 50s, while lower 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend and into Next Week.

Dry conditions persist through into next week as high pressure builds over the area. The next chance of showers look to be around midweek with isolated chances of showers across north central FL during the Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning time frame.

Below normal temperatures will across the area behind the front.
Daytime Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday will cool into the lower 70s over the weekend and into next week. Overnight Lows in the lower 50s across the area on Saturday will dip to the mid 40s by Monday for SE GA and to the lower 50s across NE FL.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Showers impacting the GNV terminal will provide periods of MVFR conditions through around 02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through around 05Z at the regional terminals. Fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread our region overnight, with LIFR conditions developing towards 06Z at VQQ and towards 08Z at GNV. IFR conditions will develop towards or after 10Z at JAX, CRG, SSI and SGJ, with periods of LIFR conditions possible through around 13Z. Ceilings should lift and visibilities will gradually improve from 13Z-15Z, with VFR conditions prevailing before 16Z Friday. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may impact the regional terminals after 18Z, with confidence too low to predict anything other than vicinity showers at this time. Southeasterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots early this evening will diminish overnight, with southwesterly surface winds developing towards 13Z. Speeds will increase to 5-10 knots towards 16Z, with the Atlantic sea breeze shifting winds to east-souutheasterly at SGJ and southerly at SSI after 18Z Friday.

MARINE

An advancing cold front entering the southeastern states will slow its forward speed, with prevailing winds south today and then southwest on Friday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the waters on Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this approaching front, which will cross our local waters before sunrise on Saturday. Winds will shift to northwest with increasing speeds after midnight on Friday night, followed by winds shifting to north and then northeast in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will gradually build into the southeastern states Sunday through early Monday, creating breezy northeast winds and gradually building seas across our local waters. Winds will weaken by Monday afternoon into Tuesday as high pressure settles over the area.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Onshore winds and lingering seas/surf today will create high-end moderate risk. Flow shifts to offshore direction by Friday.
However, a lingering easterly ocean swell will still yield a moderate risk at all area beaches Friday through the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Dispersions Across Northeast Fl This Afternoon.

Winds will shift southwesterly through Friday ahead of slow- moving and mostly dry cold front, which will push across Friday night, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass over the weekend and into early next week. Critically low humidity is not expected behind the front but a multi-day period of northerly light surface and transport winds will develop.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread fog will be possible during the overnight hours Tonight into Friday Morning across the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels within most of the St. Johns River basin continue to gradually decline with each successive high tide cycle, with gauges now reporting peak levels mostly in the action stage (below minor flooding) from around Racy Point northward.

A Coastal Flood Advisory continues in portions of the river south of Racy Point where tides continue to reach 1.4 to 1.8 feet above normally dry ground during times of high tide (minor flooding). Recent heavy rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water levels to linger for locations along the St.
Johns River and its tributaries near Lake George and Crescent Lake during the next several days as the floodwater drains northward.

CLIMATE

Near record highs will be possible at GNV, CRG, and JAX on Friday afternoon. We will also be near the record high minimum temperatures at a couple of climate sites. New records / ties are possible.

Record High Temperatures:

November 6: KJAX: 88/2018 KCRG: 87/2018

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5: KJAX: 72/2015 KGNV: 70/2015

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 81 55 76 / 20 30 0 0 SSI 67 81 60 75 / 10 40 30 0 JAX 67 85 61 79 / 10 20 30 0 SGJ 67 83 64 77 / 10 20 40 0 GNV 68 84 63 80 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 67 85 65 81 / 20 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-137.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.