SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Pattern of diurnal bouts of showers and thunderstorms with stronger developments forming along the advancing sea breeze boundaries, outflow boundaries, and along areas of collision during the afternoon and evening hours will continue through the weekend. Moist southwesterly flow will have shifted to become more out of the north and northeast as remnants of the decaying dry frontal boundary to the north moves east and south over Atlantic waters and will act in altering the steering flow over the region.
Potential for slow moving storms producing heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding during this period with PWAT values expected to range between 1.9 and 2.4 inches during this period. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s. Heat index values will rise to be above 100 degrees during this period with a potential for heat advisory conditions on Sunday.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Steering flow is expected to to become less defined next week as high pressure over the Atlantic lifts off to the north. Daily bouts of convection will continue through this period with stronger developments expected to occur along sea breeze and outflow boundaries and along areas of collision. High temperatures for the beginning of next week will be close to the seasonal average with max temps reaching into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

TEMPO groups remain in place for all terminals for TS this afternoon and evening, less SSI where radar trends will be monitored for potential inclusion. MVFR to IFR restrictions were include in the TEMPO groups due to TSRA, however, locally heavy rainfall could bring lower restrictions. Showers and storms will gradually fade in coverage and intensity between 00-04z, with a light southerly wind (< 6 kts) and lingering debris clouds (mid and high clouds) expected again after midnight tonight through daybreak 12z. Latest NBH guidance is starting to trend toward 15-25% probabilities of MVFR visibility and ceiling after 07z tonight through 12z at JAX, VQQ and GNV. Trended GNV and VQQ toward MVFR at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Weak surface front will linger over the local waters today and Saturday with light southerly winds becoming onshore in the afternoon and evening with the east coast sea breeze. The front will shift south of the local waters late Sunday into Monday, with an increase in northeast winds as high pressure builds north of the region. The high will build east then southeast of the local waters through mid-week next week as surface fronts linger over Georgia, returning southerly winds over the local waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for all local beaches through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 73 92 73 / 30 30 50 50 SSI 87 75 90 77 / 40 40 60 30 JAX 91 74 93 74 / 70 40 80 40 SGJ 89 74 91 75 / 40 30 70 30 GNV 89 71 92 72 / 80 50 90 50 OCF 91 73 93 73 / 80 50 90 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.