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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay- 338 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 am cst Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers early this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Areas of dense fog.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers. Areas of dense fog.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 338 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow persists through today. Onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of a cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow follows behind the front for Sunday through Sunday night with gusts to gale force possible over the open gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 091113 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 513 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Our forecast area remains situated underneath southwesterly flow aloft to the east of an upper level trough that continues to deepen over the central CONUS. A light southeasterly to southerly surface flow pattern between surface ridging to our east over the western Atlantic and also ahead of a surface cold front that extends from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. The low level warm advection pattern has resulted in increased dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s across southeast MS, portions of southwest AL, and across the western FL panhandle early this morning. The warm advection regime has aided in patchy fog development across portions of the area, especially in the vicinity of Mobile and Baldwin counties where some locations (including here at the WFO MOB office) have had visibility reduced to 1/4 to 1/2 mile. We have been monitoring observational trends but the dense fog development has been localized enough to so far preclude a Dense Fog Advisory issuance over land areas. We will keep an eye on trends and if the fog becomes a little more pronounced in areal coverage, we will issue a short fuse Dense Fog Advisory. The warm advection pattern over the colder bay waters has resulted in dense fog development over Mobile Bay and the MS Sound early this AM and this will likely persist into early Sunday morning. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for these two marine zones until 6 AM Sunday morning.

The upper level trough will continue to carve over the central U.S. today before gradually progressing eastward across the Mississippi Valley region by midday Sunday. The southwest flow pattern aloft will persist across our forecast area through this afternoon ahead of this feature. Ascent associated with a few perturbations in the mid level flow along with low level isentropic ascent will result in the development of scattered to locally numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms across our region through this afternoon. Instability will continue to trend higher today, with MLCAPE values rising to around 1000-1500 J/KG later this morning and this afternoon per some of this morning's higher resolution guidance. Deep layer shear will trend higher to around 30-40 kt going into the afternoon, so isolated strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and/or small hail are not entirely of the question this afternoon and early this evening.
Larger scale ascent will become organized from the Tennessee to Lower Mississippi Valley region this evening as a strong upper jet lifts ahead of the advancing trough and surface cold front. An organized line of convection will form over this general vicinity this evening and should gradually move into southeast MS and interior southwest AL by around or shortly before midnight tonight. Convection should then move across the remainder of our area overnight but may tend to become less organized with time as instability and low level flow gradually weakens. Instability and shear parameters will be sufficient to bring a low end severe weather potential across our area tonight with localized strong to damaging wind gusts. A tornadic storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out given 0-1 km SRH values between 100-200 m2/s2 over portions of Southeast MS and southwest/south central AL, but this threat will also probably diminish after 06-09Z. All in all, the low end Marginal severe risk looks good over our forecast area tonight. Areas of fog will likely develop again by this evening and into the overnight hours, especially over our central and southern zones. The potential for greater coverage of dense fog development looks to be a little higher tonight so later shifts may need to consider a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of our region.

The cold front will quickly sweep across our area Sunday morning bringing breezy northwesterly winds and much colder temperatures.
The high temperature will probably occur very early in the day with temperatures expected to fall into the 50s following frontal passage. Post-frontal showers may linger into the afternoon before ascent spreads east of our region by early Sunday evening. Lows Sunday night are projected to fall to around 30-33 degrees across most locations along and north of I-10 and in the mid 30s to lower 40s along the immediate coast. A HIGH rip current risk will be in effect along area beaches today through Sunday. /21

SHORT AND LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

A dry airmass will remain entrenched across our region underneath mainly zonal flow aloft Monday and Tuesday. Surface high pressure also builds overhead Monday and Monday night before shifting across the eastern and southeastern states on Tuesday. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions continue into the early to middle part of the week. There is some uncertainty on the evolution of the pattern during the middle to latter part of the week. An upper level low may deepen somewhere over the vicinity of the Desert Southwest or Rocky Mountains late in the week. Deeper moisture over the Gulf may get drawn northward ahead of this feature bringing the next chance of rain toward the latter part of the week or next weekend. Seasonably cool temperatures are otherwise anticipated Wednesday through Friday. /21

MARINE
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Light to at times moderate onshore flow today will strengthen to strong by Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Small Craft level winds appear late Saturday night/early Sunday as the front begins to cross area waters, with near gale force offshore flowing winds/above gale force gusts appearing Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening over our far offshore zones. Timing of frontal passage over area waters continues to be early Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Winds ease to moderate along with shifting to easterly Monday through Monday night as surface high pressure passes north of the forecast area. A tightening of the pressure gradient along the coast will bring a moderate to at times strong easterly flow by mid week. /16



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 77 53 61 33 57 33 59 39 / 40 90 50 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 74 58 67 37 56 39 59 44 / 50 90 70 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 74 60 69 39 58 42 61 47 / 60 100 90 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 75 54 61 32 57 30 59 35 / 50 100 70 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 77 48 55 30 57 30 59 33 / 50 90 40 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 76 49 57 30 54 30 58 33 / 50 100 60 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 74 59 65 31 57 30 59 38 / 60 100 80 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday for GMZ630>636.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ670-675.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ670-675.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for GMZ670-675.

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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Sat -- 03:15 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:00 PM CST     1.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:15 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM CST     1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

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