Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fernandina Beach, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Solid Moderate Rip Current Risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches

- Locally dense fog possible inland late night/early morning hours

High pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region through Tonight. This will continue a southeast steering flow across the region. Moisture remains limited in the mid/upper levels and is expected to only trigger widely scattered showers and storms during the afternoon/evening hours over inland areas, with the main focus along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL. Isolated strong storm possible with gusty winds, but severe weather is not expected. Max temps will remain above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast.

Low temps falling into the 60s over inland areas will support patchy to areas of fog formation, with locally dense fog possible around sunrise both mornings, mainly along the I-10 corridor northward across most of inland SE GA. The onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coastal milder with lows in the lower/middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

Pattern of diurnal showers and storms will continue with convection becoming less inhibited by Friday as the influence of high pressure ridging over the forecast area diminishes and prevailing flow shifts to become more southerly, bringing in more moist conditions with PWAT values potentially rising to levels between 1.8 and 2 inches.
Temperatures will be well above average through the end of the week with daily max temps reaching up into the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

Diurnal convection will become more widespread by Saturday and Sunday as prevailing flow over the forecast area continues to be from out of the southeast and south with afternoon thunderstorm developments having a a potential for heavy rainfall with stronger slower moving storms leading to localized flooding over affected areas. Temperatures are expected to remain above the seasonal average through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Stratus will move off the Atlantic late Tonight, which may briefly cause restrictions. The potential for these restrictions in stratus is low, so will not include any TEMPO groups. Further inland, fog is expected to cause restrictions at VQQ and GNV.

Prevailing VFR conditions is forecast for Wednesday as rainfall chances remain too low for inclusion at the TAF sites for now.

East Coast sea breeze will increase E-SE winds to 10-12G15-18 knots at TAF sites through the afternoon hours, which will slowly diminish after sunset Wednesday evening.

MARINE

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast this week and through the weekend. Mainly southeast flow will continue through the period with a daily sea breeze near the Atlantic Coast.

Rip Currents:

Solid Moderate Risk through the end of the week with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range. Potential High Risk for the holiday weekend with an uptick in surf/breakers back into the 3-4 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER
- Patchy High Dispersions This Week

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. Persistent onshore flow will allow moisture to continue filtering into the area, leading to MinRH values remaining above critical levels. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible this morning and Wednesday mornings for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 93 66 91 68 / 10 10 20 10 SSI 83 72 86 77 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 89 68 92 73 / 10 0 20 10 SGJ 87 70 90 75 / 10 0 10 10 GNV 93 68 94 72 / 20 20 20 20 OCF 94 68 92 73 / 30 30 30 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.