Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fernandina Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:21PM Sunday February 23, 2020 10:12 AM EST (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 7:15AMMoonset 6:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 651 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Monday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night and Thursday..West northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 651 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis.. A coastal trough over the florida atlantic waters today will lift northward as a warm front tonight. South winds increase late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches with a return of advisory conditions for at least the outer waters. The cold front will slowly move south across the local waters through Wednesday brining elevated rain chances. A stronger cold front will move across the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday trailed by an increase in offshore flow and advisory conditions.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of feb 22, 2020 at 1200 utc... 73 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 80 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 88 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 91 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fernandina Beach, FL
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location: 30.67, -81.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 231418 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 918 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

UPDATE.

Warmer with more clouds today and only a very low chance of an sprinkle across NE Florida where low level moisture was increasing. A few showers were popping offshore this morning near a coastal trough axis over the Fl Atlantic coast and as this trough morphs into a lifting warm front later today into tonight, low clouds and some sprinkles will be possible especially across inland NE FL where weak sea breeze convergence is also expected this afternoon. Otherwise, prevailing dry and mild conditions.

High temperatures will rebound back to closer to near normal values ranging from the upper 60s across SE GA, low/mid 60s coast to the lower 70s across inland NE FL.

MARINE.

Small craft advisory remains in effect for the outer Florida waters through this afternoon due to elevated combined seas of up to 8 feet despite ENE winds relaxing to 10-15 kts. Also continued Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headline for our nearshore waters and the SE GA outer waters due to seas of 4-6 ft. A few showers today expected over the waters as a lingering coastal trough morphs into a warm front. South winds increase late Mon as a cold front approaches with a return of Advisory conditions for at least the outer waters likely.

PREV DISCUSSION [542 AM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Upper level ridging will build over the northern Gulf coast today, with deepening low pressure aloft of the central Plains. At the lower levels, the ridge of high pressure in place over the southeast will move roll off the east coast this afternoon/evening with our next cold front beginning to develop out over the central Plains. Locally, this will lead to more easterly/onshore flow today followed by more south-southeasterly flow overnight. There's a low end chance for some isolated showers along the I-75 corridor as southeasterly flow converges with a weak Gulf coast seabreeze overnight. After a frosty start this morning, we'll warm up to the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon. Tonight, lows will only dip into the upper 40s to low 50s with warm air advection ahead of the approaching frontal system.

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday].

Monday . Warm southerly flow will push temps well into the 70s across the region with a few 80 degree readings across inland NE FL, otherwise skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing mid and high clouds through the day ahead of the approaching frontal system which may trigger a few late day showers across inland SE GA.

Monday Night . Strong mid level disturbance just ahead of front will push into SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley with widespread showers and isolated storms. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected. Further SE across the rest of NE FL and Atlc Coastal areas cloudiness will continue to increase with a few pre-frontal showers possible. Otherwise mild overnight lows around 60 degrees.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night . Deep and moist SW flow ahead of the front will set the stage for widespread rainfall in all areas as first disturbance across SE GA early Tuesday tracks out of the region and renewed energy pushes out of the NE Gomex along and just ahead of the front and pushes the widespread rainfall and embedded storms with locally heavy rainfall into NE FL by the afternoon and evening hours. Another 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected area-wide and still expect widespread amounts of 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. This will continue flooding along the Altamaha River Basin and likely see significant rises in other basins across SE GA and NE FL but too early to tell if any river basins will reach flood stage, and considering the lack of overall winter rainfall across the region the need for a Flash Flood Watch remains low at this time. Above normal temps will continue with 70s still expected ahead of most of the rainfall on Tuesday and only falling near 60 degrees again Tuesday Night.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

Wednesday . Trailing cold frontal passage will continue to trigger scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms, but any locally heavy rainfall threat early in the day will fade with the frontal passage with any additional rainfall amounts mainly in the 0.25"-0.50" range. Max temps will likely peak just ahead of the front in the upper 60s across SE GA and lower/middle 70s across NE FL. Some early evening showers possible Wed Evening but overall clearing skies and much colder airmass filters in on breezy NW flow as temps fall to around 40 degrees by Thu Morning.

Thu/Fri/Sat . Strong and cold NW flow for late February will result in much below temps and dry conditions with Highs mainly in the 50s and Lows mainly in the 30s with inland light Freeze events expected each night along with some Wind Chills down into the 20s that will be close to Advisory levels on Friday Morning.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Monday]

VFR conditions are forecast through 06Z with light winds from the northeast shifting to the east through the day as the low level ridge of high pressure moves eastward. Towards the end of the TAF period, patchy fog may develop in southeast Georgia, but at this time chances are too low to include.

HYDROLOGY.

Chances for rainfall across SE GA and NE FL will return tomorrow with an approaching cold front, followed by a few more rounds of on and off showers through Wednesday as a disturbed pattern sets up. Rainfall totals remain around 1-3", with the highest totals anticipated across inland southeast Georgia and dipping into the Suwannee Valley. No widespread flooding is forecast at this time, but localized flooding will be possible, especially in areas that see isolated higher totals.

River Flooding: Minor to moderate flooding along the Altamaha River from near Charlotteville, GA to Everett City, GA will continue for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 65 48 72 59 72 / 0 0 20 100 100 SSI 61 53 67 58 69 / 10 10 0 80 90 JAX 67 53 77 61 77 / 10 10 0 40 80 SGJ 67 54 75 61 77 / 10 10 0 10 60 GNV 72 52 78 60 77 / 10 10 0 30 80 OCF 73 53 80 59 79 / 10 10 0 10 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval- Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 0 mi55 min NNE 7 G 12 60°F 56°F1026.5 hPa
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 10 mi43 min 57°F4 ft
BLIF1 19 mi61 min NNE 6 G 9.9 57°F 1026.9 hPa55°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 19 mi55 min NNE 11 G 13 56°F 57°F1026.3 hPa
DMSF1 20 mi55 min 59°F
LTJF1 20 mi61 min 57°F 50°F
NFDF1 20 mi55 min ENE 7 G 9.9 53°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 53 mi73 min NNE 6 51°F 1027 hPa (+1.0)42°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 57 mi73 min N 12 G 13 59°F 58°F1025.7 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL4 mi78 minNNE 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F48°F77%1026.4 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL17 mi77 minNNE 610.00 miA Few Clouds53°F45°F74%1026 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL19 mi81 minNNE 1110.00 miFair57°F48°F74%1026.1 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL24 mi80 minNNE 410.00 miFair56°F48°F77%1026.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNRB

Wind History from NRB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN13N10N10N13N9N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Fernandina Beach, Amelia River, Florida
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Fernandina Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:50 AM EST     6.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 02:43 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 08:57 PM EST     5.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.90.6-00.31.32.64.15.46.36.564.83.11.50.30.10.823.44.85.765.64.5

Tide / Current Tables for St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current
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St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:05 AM EST     -1.99 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:20 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     2.22 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:33 AM EST     New Moon
Sun -- 01:52 PM EST     -2.08 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:29 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EST     1.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:31 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.9-2-1.9-1.4-0.40.81.82.22.11.60.5-0.8-1.7-2-2.1-1.8-1.1-01.11.71.81.50.6-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.