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FXUS64 KFWD 030814 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1134 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/ /Through Monday/

Sunny, breezy, and warm today as deep cyclonic flow across the Southern Plains translates to occasionally gusty westerly winds 10 to 20 mph by this afternoon. Plentiful sunshine/insolation will coming with some compressional warming from higher terrain across the Big Country for highs today to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal (usually around 60 degrees). Highs temperatures will range from the mid-upper 60s in the northeast zones to the lower 70s across western North Texas into Central Texas.

In addition to the very warm temperatures for early December with be the dry airmass from the aforementioned downslope flow with afternoon RH values falling below 30 percent for all but our East Texas areas. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions for the majority of the area as much of grasses and small vegetation near dormancy for the Winter. A Grass Fire Danger statement will likely be needed for this afternoon.

Winds will subside and back south or southwesterly 10 mph or less ahead of an expected cold front arriving around midnight tonight.
The cold front will be easily supported by another strong shortwave diving southeast into the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex region within the strong cyclonic flow overhead. Gusty northerly winds 10 to 20 mph will occur several hours after the frontal passage before settling down just before sunrise Monday. Despite the nearly cloud-free skies and increasing low level cold advection, elevated wind speeds and gusts overnight should help keep low temperatures contained between the mid 30s and lower 40s.

Cold advection and brisk northwest winds 10 to 15 mph will continue through midday, but wanes in the afternoon with a broad, though not overly strong surface high building into the area from the northwest. Despite the colder airmass, plentiful sunshine and the dry airmass will still warm readily into the lower to mid 60s with winds becoming variable around 5 mph by nightfall.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Monday Night and Beyond/

A rain-free forecast will prevail through at least the middle of next week as a dry air mass remains anchored over North and Central Texas. A quick-moving shortwave trough will shift out of the Northern Great Plains into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday pushing an additional weak front into North Texas during the day Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s across much of the region Tuesday afternoon ahead of slightly stronger cold advection slated to arrive later Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Expect widespread lows Tuesday night in the mid 30s to low 40s, possibly approaching freezing near the Red River, and slightly cooler afternoon highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 60s.

By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will shift off to the east and a warm/moist advective regime will re-establish across North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Expect increasing cloud cover, afternoon highs in the low to upper 70s, and surface dewpoints inching into the upper 50s to low 60s by Thu-Fri of next week. Rain chances look to return to the forecast area during the Saturday (Dec 9th)-Sunday (Dec 10th) time frame as the next storm system and associated cold front enter the Plains.
The placement of the weekend cold front currently varies across a roughly 24-hour time period amongst the most recent suite of deterministic and ensemble guidance with the faster solutions suggesting an early Saturday morning FROPA (~35% of EPS/GEFS/CMC members) and the slower solutions suggesting an early Sunday morning FROPA (~25% of EPS/GEFS/CMC members). With a good deal of uncertainty on the timing of this frontal boundary, we will keep PoPs at 20-40% across the area next weekend for now. A noticeable difference in temperatures is expected behind the coming weekend's frontal passage as well with a 70-80% chance that afternoon highs remain below 60 degrees into the early portions of the following week.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/Issued 1134 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023/ /06z TAFs/

VFR with SW winds to 10 kts becoming W 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts > 20 kts by 18z-20z.

Winds briefly will go SW less than 10 kts by 00z Monday before FROPA arrives by 06z. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts expected post-FROPA through 12z Monday.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 40 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 72 39 63 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 64 37 58 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 69 35 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 68 36 60 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 70 42 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 68 38 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 71 42 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 40 64 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 37 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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