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FXUS64 KEWX 071717 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1117 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

An abundance of high clouds continue to remain in place across South- Central Texas during the overnight hours. Temperatures are currently in the upper 40s to middle 50s for most areas and not expecting much more in the way of cooling for the remainder of the night with the cloud cover. Have not seen too much in the way of low-level clouds develop yet at this time, but some low clouds are possible west of the I35 corridor by morning in addition to some patchy fog for the same areas. Southerly flow is expected to increase in speed by the afternoon hours as a weak disturbance moves into the Southern Plains. This will help increase moisture slightly today but not expecting any precipitation to come from this. Highs today will top out in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

For tonight, low clouds will be on the increase with a better chance of patchy to areas of fog. Some patchy dense fog can not be ruled out with the best area for fog across the western counties. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. For tomorrow, should see a decrease in cloud cover by the afternoon hours with any fog dissipating. Highs will be warmer and will top out in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees so don't be surprised to hear the air condition click on tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A trough axis approaching Texas on Friday night into Saturday appears a bit slower to arrive in recent model runs, with a cold front now expected to cross our region during the day Saturday, potentially not exiting the Coastal Plains until the evening. As a result, both Friday night lows and Saturday highs have been increased a bit from previous forecasts. Still cannot rule out isolated showers and storms in our far eastern counties along the front in the afternoon and early evening, but with mid-level PVA induced lift lagging behind the front we don't expect much. Breezy N to NNW winds will overspread the region late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with 15-25 mph sustained winds and 30-35 mph gusts, potentially locally up to 40 mph. Cannot rule out a wind advisory. With the slower progression of this system, cooling Saturday night will be CAA driven, and so we don't expect much risk for a freeze at this time with forecast lows Sunday morning in the 33-44 degree range.

A sunny and cool Sunday is expected with winds gradually diminishing through the day as surface high pressure takes control. With dew points in the upper teens and lower 20s and winds likely to decouple overnight in most areas, the potential for a widespread light freeze will need to be monitored. Urban Heat Islands and our far southern and western counties should be safe, but Probabilistic NBM depicts several areas with >50% chances for MinT <32. Have lowered MinT Monday morning from the blend to the 30-36 degree range as a result.
The Canadian (which typically performs pretty good in these radiational cooling situations) suggests this may not be low enough, but will monitor trends over the coming days and adjust accordingly.

Southerly return flow will quickly increase on Monday as the next trough to our west begins to set up. There is high uncertainty in it's fate. It appears likely to cut off, but exactly where and when will determine our next rain chances. For now, ensembles point towards better chances for appreciable rainfall setting up over the west half of our region on Wednesday into Thursday. Hard to say when the system will finally progress and bring our next cold front, but it could be as late as next Saturday. Lots of details to work out.
Will continue to cross our fingers for the rainier solutions.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR ceilings are in place at the I-35 sites with lingering MVFR ceilings at DRT for the start of the period. These MVFR ceilings may last as long as 20Z before VFR conditions return at all sites through the evening hours along with breezy southerly flow. IFR to LIFR ceilings along with areas of fog are expected overnight, with the highest confidence for LIFR conditions at DRT and SAT. These reduced conditions may last into the early afternoon on Friday for many locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 71 60 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 62 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 62 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 59 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 59 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 60 77 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 71 60 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 61 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 61 77 65 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 62 77 61 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 62 80 62 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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