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FXUS64 KEWX 231101 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Mostly clear skies are in place across the area at this time with temperatures mostly in the upper 70s. Should see some nocturnal stratus later tonight which should prevent low temperatures by morning from not being too much lower than current values. The main story for today and tomorrow will be the continued abnormal heat.
The persistent upper ridge will remain to our west through the weekend which keeps the heat in place. Highs today should top out in the upper 90s to 102 degrees with the higher values in the southern and western counties. Dewpoints will also remain elevated during the afternoon which sends heat index values to near 106 for most areas outside of the Hill Country. An isolated spot could see a heat index value of 108 degrees, but will highlight this in the Hazardous Weather Outlook as most of the area should remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

For tonight, another round of some nocturnal stratus is expected with lows well above normal in the middle to upper 70s for most locations. One last day of near triple degree heat is expected Sunday with some locations flirting near Heat Advisory criteria. A weak shortwave will pass to our north tomorrow afternoon. This should spark off some late afternoon showers and storms with peak heating for areas mainly in the northern Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.
The NBM is showing 20-30 PoPs in the afternoon hours and this seems pretty reasonable. Can't completely rule out a strong storm with this activity.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

As is often the case of September fronts in Central TX, the front to arrive Monday will arrive weaker and later than advertised in the the 4-7 day out time frame. This coincides with a subtropical ridge that has over-achieved all summer. A subtropical jet is slowly becoming more active as we get deeper into an El Nino phase, and this should help a few disturbances carve out some instability on the NE side of the ridge as it is expected to do Sunday night into Monday. However, the connection to the Pacific tropics is not sufficient to generate enough moisture to bring enough rain and outflows to reinforce the weak front to arrive in the daytime hours. The front will be well north of TX Sunday evening, so we are seeing a lowering PoP trend for Sunday evening when convection initiation stays mostly over North TX.
Late in the evening, the outflows could trigger some scattered convection over the northern counties, and with the late arrival, we don't believe this will promote a significant severe storm threat.
However, we are in a Marginal risk over northern counties, and it would seem strong wind gusts may be the main concern with early evening temperatures in the 90s.

Muggy morning temps should start off the work week, and Monday afternoon temps could be almost as hot as the weekend temps over southern counties due to a delayed arrival trend of the front. Most areas along and north of Highway 90 should see the afternoon air modified with convection expected to pick up again off outflows in the early afternoon. A few strong storms could still develop Monday depending where the frontal boundary is in the afternoon. Locally heavy downpours are possible, but the overall trends for QPF seem to show smaller pockets of heavy rain, making it look as a reduced chance for an organized storm complex to develop. If this is the case, some areas may miss out on the better rain chances, just as parts of San Antonio metro missed out on some of the higher rain totals last week. For this reason, we continue to discount some of the higher PoPs and rain totals from the guidance blends and would suggest that once again southern counties are going to see the least amount of rainfall through Tuesday.

Weak upper ridging returns aloft over OK/N TX Wednesday. The Hill Country could get a couple days of modified air with highs in the 80s, but southern counties are trending toward warmer temps going into the middle of the week, especially the morning minimum temps.
This would hopefully mean a more moist an unstable airmass to be trapped over Central TX and the Coastal Bend with perhaps some more days of isolated streamer convection to replace the eroded frontal zone. More likely, it will mean more humid air, light to moderate winds and no significant rainfall while highs rebound to the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

SCT to BKN MVFR clouds continue across the I35 sites this morning.
Will prevail BKN015 in the TAFs through 15-16z to cover this. VFR is then expected once again with south flow continuing through the period. Speeds will be at or below 14 knots except for the evening hours when some slightly higher gusts can be expected. Another round of MVFR ceilings will be possible tomorrow morning once again.

CLIMATE
Issued at 130 AM CDT SAT Sep 23 2023

Record High Temperatures and year last reached:

9/23 9/24 AUS - 101 (2005) 101 (2005)
ATT - 100 (2019) 99 (2011)
SAT - 99 (2005) 102 (2005)
DRT - 104 (1908) 103 (2005)

Temp (Year)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 100 78 99 74 / 10 10 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 77 99 75 / 10 10 20 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 101 78 100 76 / 10 10 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 98 76 97 74 / 10 10 30 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 80 103 79 / 0 10 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 78 98 74 / 10 10 30 50 Hondo Muni Airport 100 75 100 73 / 0 0 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 77 99 74 / 10 10 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 78 98 76 / 20 10 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 79 99 76 / 10 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 101 79 101 77 / 0 0 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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