Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sneads, FL

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sneads, FL

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Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL

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FXUS62 KTAE 081458 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1058 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1053 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Made some minor tweaks to the afternoon forecast to account for current radar and observation trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains generally on track. We're still expecting a later start to storms on land with the sea breeze, starting around 2-4 PM ET/1-3 PM CT. We'll also see some isolated storms late this afternoon with a southward advancing cold front across the far northern tier of our area coming from central Georgia.

Model soundings for this afternoon show abundant CAPE and DCAPE, leading to a threat of strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts in some of the storms this afternoon. While the Marginal Risk for severe storms is mostly confined to the I-75 corridor of south central Georgia, the storms that develop along the sea breeze in the Florida counties could also become strong to severe given inverted-V soundings, steep low-level lapse rates, and mid-level dry air.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The main highlight today will be afternoon and early evening thunderstorms with potential for isolated damaging wind gusts.

A cold front will slip south today through our Alabama and Georgia counties. Along the south of the front, surface dewpoints near 70F will contribute to a moderate unstable air mass, with pockets of strong instability. Near the base of an upper trough extending south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, deep-layer shear around 15 knots will be a bit stronger than the 5-10 knots of shear that we had yesterday. This could be just enough to loosely organize thunderstorms into a few multi-cell clusters, with isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail possible. The best focus for development will still be with the seabreeze front over our Florida and far south Georgia counties.

Otherwise, convective development will hold off today until mid-late afternoon, giving temperatures time to heat up before the tempering effect of thunderstorms and clouds arrive. Inland highs in the lower 90s will be common.

North of the cold front, the air mass will be drier, with afternoon dewpoints as low as the mid 50s. Therefore, instability will be lacking. Late this afternoon and this evening, a weak upper impulse could brush by, producing a few high-based showers.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The upper-trough will continue slowly ejecting off the East Coast through the short term with the CWA staying south of its axis resulting in WNW flow aloft as ridging builds back in. At the surface, a weak cold front will sag down to the area which is expected to traverse south through the area and into the Gulf by late Saturday evening. WSW flow will remain present throughout Friday advecting robust moisture into our FL Panhandle and southernmost tier of SW GA counties. Instability will be quite high with area soundings averaging around ~2500J/kg, perhaps reaching up to 3000J/kg in our eastern FL Big Bend counties. DCAPE averaging around ~1000J/kg appears likely with some dry air entrainment appearing in the mid to upper levels with small inverted V profiles near the surface.

There is some uncertainty regarding expected storm coverage with this setup and how it may evolve given model inconsistencies on how far south the upper level support will reach. If it does extend father south ahead of the cold front, then more storms will initiate and chances will be higher across the board, specifically within our westernmost FL Panhandle counties where uncertainty is greatest. The highest confidence of storms occurring lies within our eastern FL Big Bend where PoP's are around 50% given the increasing likelihood of a subtle shortwave that appears to traverse NE from the Gulf which would help initiate storms. Around 20-25kts of eff. bulk shear appears likely with this setup, resulting in somewhat longer-lived storms than we have been experiencing lately with the summertime pulse severe pattern. Coverage will likely begin isolated and increase over due to mean flow parallel to the cold front resulting in clustering cells throughout the afternoon into the evening. The main threats at this time appear to be damaging wind gusts and isolated small hail. Some isolated storms appear possible on Saturday, though coverage will be limited with the upper level support leaving the region by then.

High temperatures throughout the short term are forecast to reach the 90s with lows in the low 70s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A more traditional summertime diurnal pattern will take over once again on Sunday before a surface low treks east over the Ohio Valley with its attendant cold front sparking some storms in our area. Though the front is diffuse, these storms may be somewhat more damaging as stronger shear is apparent ahead of the cold front. Although, coverage and intensity remain inconsistent at this time and will require monitoring over the coming days. Highs throughout the long term will reach the low 90s with lows generally near 70.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Low clouds at TLH and VLD will quickly lift and scatter out in the first 2-3 hours after sunrise.

This afternoon, a cold front will be slowly making its way south through southeast Alabama and south Georgia. South of the front, air mass thunderstorms could affect ECP, TLH, and VLD. In contrast, DHN and ABY will be in drier air north of the front, but a few showers are possible this evening from a high-based cloud layer.

In the moister air south of the front, low clouds with IFR cigs and mist are expected late tonight. This will include TLH, VLD, and possibly ECP.

MARINE
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Today, seas will increase up to two feet with a moderate breeze out of the WSW as a weak front sags to the south. Throughout the weekend, a light to gentle breeze will prevail out of the WSW resulting in calmer seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day in the period with locally higher seas and winds possible near these storms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A slow-moving cold front will move south through Alabama and Georgia districts through Friday, but have trouble getting into Florida.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will form along and south of the front, with thunderstorms carrying a bit more gust potential than normal for early summer. North of the front over Alabama and Georgia districts, a drier air mass will lower Min RH values into the 30s through Saturday. In addition north of the front, a deep mixing layer and moderate transport winds will support high and very high afternoon dispersion through Saturday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Around 0.5-1" of rain is possible today and tomorrow within our FL counties which may result in isolated instances of nuisance flooding. Overall, flooding concerns continue to remain low at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 93 71 91 70 / 50 10 50 10 Panama City 87 74 88 73 / 20 10 40 10 Dothan 93 69 90 68 / 20 20 30 0 Albany 94 68 91 66 / 20 20 20 0 Valdosta 93 69 91 68 / 40 20 40 10 Cross City 90 71 91 70 / 20 10 50 20 Apalachicola 85 74 86 73 / 20 10 30 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Panama City, FL

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from MAI (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida

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