Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sneads, FL

SHORT TERM
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The stationary boundary is forecast to ebb south Sunday night into Monday, allowing drier air to filter in from the north. This pushes the best opportunities for rain into the southeastern Florida Big Bend, really only Dixie County, during the day on Monday. A second cold front nears the region late Monday night, with noticeably cooler temperatures back behind it, as discussed later in the long term forecast. Otherwise, that drier air will help push overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night into the middle 60s to near 70. Daytime highs will generally run in the middle 80s across the region Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has started advisories on Tropical Storm Milton. The forecast is for it to slowly move north-northeast to northeast Sunday before turning more northeast to east-northeast and picking up speed Monday into mid-week.
While the official track is for a landfall near Tampa sometime on Wednesday, the forecast cone does extend into the southeastern Florida Big Bend, so we will continue to monitor Milton's progression over the coming days. As of now, the primary impacts we're concerned about locally are rougher marine conditions by mid-week along with worsening beach and surf conditions. Rain chances also increase along the southeast Florida Big Bend as Milton nears. Residents should continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Milton on hurricanes.gov, especially those who are still recovering from Helene.

As mentioned in the short term, a cold front will be plunging south Tuesday, bringing much drier air into the region for the second half of the week. This will shut off rain chances and bring temperatures down into the 50s and 60s at night and the 70s for highs during the day. It's also worth mentioning that the pressure gradient between Milton in the Gulf and the surface high to the north could be strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory for parts of the area by mid-week, especially for areas that are still recovering from Helene.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Currently all sites are VFR with light showers mostly confined to the Gulf waters. Overnight, cigs are expected to fall to MVFR and some IFR Sunday, especially TLH/VLD. Patchy light showers will continue Sunday with the better confidence from ECP-TLH-VLD with lower confidence DHN-ABY. Should be mainly showers as instability is limited. Cigs appear to improve Sunday afternoon and possibly VFR at DHN-ABY tho not confident enough to put in TAFs attm.

MARINE
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

East to northeast winds continue the next several days. Cautionary conditions are expected tonight over the western waters. Advisory level conditions are possible as early as Sunday afternoon and certainly by Sunday night as the pressure gradient tightens over the region. Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to head east-northeast to northeast through the weekend and into the middle of the week. Winds and seas are forecast to increase even more by mid-week as Milton passes south of the marine area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day until a cold front clears the area mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

The main fire weather concern will be the possibility of pockets elevated to high dispersions for SW GA, SE AL, and the W FL Panhandle and Big Bend counties tomorrow and Tue. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns given the recent rains and moist fuels.
Showers are possible today, with drier conditions expected into early next week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Minor flooding continues along the lower Withlacoochee at Quitman and Pinetta. The Withlacoochee at Quitman should fall below flood stage tonight while the flood wave crests later today. Over the next several days, the flood waves from the Withlacoochee and the Alapaha will move into the upper Suwannee and progress downstream through much of next week. Minor flooding is currently forecast along the middle Suwannee from Luraville downstream, but won't likely happen until the middle of the week. Rainfall totals will generally be light enough to avoid any additional river flood concerns.

Regarding Tropical Storm Milton, heavy rainfall potential in the southeast Big Bend will hinge on track and evolution. For now, the Weather Prediction Center has outlined the southeast Big Bend in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll have to continue to monitor trends in rainfall placement over the next several days to get a better idea on any flash flood or heavy rain potential.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 72 78 68 84 / 40 40 0 0 Panama City 72 82 70 85 / 40 40 0 0 Dothan 71 79 66 85 / 40 40 0 0 Albany 71 80 65 85 / 40 50 0 0 Valdosta 71 78 67 84 / 50 50 0 0 Cross City 73 81 71 83 / 40 60 10 20 Apalachicola 74 79 71 82 / 60 50 10 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.