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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 107 Pm Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft exercise caution...
This afternoon..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain likely. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 207 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..
a brief increase in northerly winds over area waters tonight will lead to cautionary conditions across our western waters. High pressure moves in through the next 2 days which will keep winds and seas low. The next storm system comes in by Friday with winds becoming easterly and southeasterly by Thursday afternoon. Winds increase and become south and southwesterly over the weekend with widespread showers and storms expected into the weekend. Advisory level conditions are likely during this time, especially on Friday.

FXUS62 KTAE 282020 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 320 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

With high pressure dominating through tomorrow we can expect light winds and clear skies to prevail. Due to clear skies tonight and winds that will approach calm, if not calm, across most of the region, one can expect widespread frost before sunrise. A freeze warning is in effect tonight for just about every county, expect Franklin where criteria may be narrowly missed. Radiational cooling will be efficient tonight across the region given a dry atmospheric column and clear skies. Otherwise, after sunrise tomorrow it'll be chilly as highs struggle to reach today's high temps.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows in the upper 20s across SE AL and SW GA, and in the low to mid 40s across our FL counties.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface high pressure approaches filters into the area from the northwest Wednesday night and this will allow for another night of good radiational cooling. Temperatures across southeast Alabama and the Panhandle will range around the mid 30s as there is a higher potential for prolonged upper-level cloud cover. The low 30s and the potential for freezing temperatures are possible for the Florida Big Bend and southern Georgia. With enough moisture in place and low wind speeds, this should allow for the development of frost. Temperatures will warm up quickly in the morning, and high are expected to be in the low to mid-sixties Thursday. Winds are variable and light overnight into Thursday.

By Thursday, a shortwave that originating from the southwest will approach. This will bring increasing clouds for the area, resulting in warmer overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Rain is not expected until later in the week.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A warm and active pattern will develop across the southeast on Friday and into the upcoming weekend as multiple disturbances embedded in the active subtropical jet stream pass through the deep south. With excellent moisture transport from the southern Gulf and the active storm track, expect high rain chances beginning Friday evening and lasting off and on through much of the weekend and into early next week. Heavy rain is likely at times but where the axis of heavier rains will setup is still too early to determine. A severe threat is possible as well, but that will depend on how far northwards the warm sector will set up.
General rainfall amounts over the upcoming weekend range from 1 to 2 across the southeast Big Bend to 3 to 5 inches across the Panhandle and southeast Alabama.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty winds are being reported at terminals across the region and that is expected to continue through sunset. After sunset we'll decouple with winds dropping down to calm or near calm at all terminals expect ECP, which may stay around 5 knots overnight. As a result, widespread frost is expected tomorrow morning. After sunrise tomorrow, a north wind around 5 knots will prevail with clear skies through the rest of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A brief increase in northerly winds over area waters tonight will lead to cautionary conditions across our western waters. High pressure moves in through the next 2 days which will keep winds and seas low. The next storm system comes in by Friday with winds becoming easterly and southeasterly by Thursday afternoon. Winds increase and become south and southwesterly over the weekend with widespread showers and storms expected into the weekend. Advisory level conditions are likely during this time, especially on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

High pressure settles over the area through Friday, this will lead to light winds and dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, leading to widespread frost across the region tonight and tomorrow night. There are currently no fire weather concerns. Another chance for widespread rain will move through the region this weekend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 246 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Dry conditions expected through early Friday but then an active pattern will develop for the upcoming weekend. While drought conditions will allow us to absorb much of the upcoming rain, localized flooding is possible with the upcoming pattern in areas that receive these amounts quickly. As for potential riverine flooding, most rivers continue to remain have below average stream flows and current rainfall forecast only bring a few rivers to near minor stage should the forecast amounts verify.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 33 56 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 35 58 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 28 55 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 27 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 30 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 32 59 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 38 57 41 65 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ007>014-016>019-026>029-034.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for FLZ007>013-016>019-026>029-034.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ114.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ065>069.

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.

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Lynn Haven
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Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:41 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:55 AM CST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:53 PM CST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Laird Bayou
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Tue -- 06:18 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:15 AM CST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:41 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:43 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:25 PM CST     2.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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