Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 1:28 PM   Moonset 2:04 AM

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GMZ750 Expires:202405170815;;324918 Fzus52 Ktae 161943 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 343 pm edt Thu may 16 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-170815- apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 343 pm edt Thu may 16 2024 /243 pm cdt Thu may 16 2024/
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: southwest 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Monday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 343 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis -
southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong to severe storms is possible on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and storms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.

FXUS62 KTAE 162000 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 400 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Friday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Surface high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf this afternoon. High pressure will move east across the Florida Peninsula tonight, then continue on to northeast of the Bahamas on Friday.

In response, low-level southerly flow will get underway and gradually increase, bringing a return of deeper and richer surface- based moisture by Friday morning. A warm front will then continue northward on Friday afternoon through our Alabama and Georgia counties, bringing a warmer and moister air mass northward.

Meanwhile, 700-500 mb flow will back around south of due west and increase in strength, in response to an eastward-propagating and positively tilted upper trough traversing the Southern Plains. The first of multiple shortwaves will eject through the strengthening mid-level flow, zipping across our region early Friday morning. This will drive the cluster of storms currently over eastern Texas eastward overnight. By the time they get this far east, the storms will have weakened some and could very well be elevated on the cool side of the northward-advancing warm front. Later on Friday, there could be a temporary lull over our Florida counties, but convection could continue to occasionally fire off over our Alabama and Georgia counties thanks to lift provided by the northward-advancing warm front.

SHORT TERM
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The potential for severe weather is increasing and SPC has upgraded western portions of the area from a Marginal to Slight Risk on the latest Day 2, valid Friday night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is now in an SPC Marginal Risk. One or more rounds of thunderstorms is expected. The first round could occur or be ongoing as early as Friday night, although the more significant round is expected on Saturday into Saturday night. The high shear values are more reminiscent of the cool season while decent instability is expected. Damaging winds and possibly a tornado appear to be the main threats. Those with outdoor/travel plans should remain weather aware and adjust plans in advance accordingly.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Depending on the timing, a chance of showers and thunderstorms could linger across the eastern half of the area for Sunday. Cannot rule out a slight chance of showers across far eastern areas on Monday as another shortwave swings through. Otherwise, dry conditions look to dominate heading into the middle of next week with temperatures slightly above average.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A return of low-level southerly flow will get underway over the next 24 hours, as surface high pressure exits off to the east.
FEW-SCT coverage of fair weather cumulus is expected until sunset, when thermal lift will end. Then late tonight, the southerly flow will spread mainly MVFR cigs northward into across the FL terminals (ECP and TLH). Around or after sunrise, the elevated and weakening remnants of thunderstorms currently over eastern Texas will make their way in from the west.

Have included VCTS at ECP only. Have only included showers at the other terminals through 18z Friday, but will need to watch for eventual inclusion of thunder.

MARINE
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday as high pressure moves east of the waters. A cluster of strong to severe storms is increasingly likely on Saturday and possibly Saturday night ahead of a cold frontal passage. Showers and thunderstorms could linger into Sunday with the front nearby. High pressure and light winds are expected to return for early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak front will approach the area on Friday and Saturday, passing the districts on Sunday. In advance of the front on Friday and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Both the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and Ochlockonee River at Concord continue in minor flood stage. More rain is headed into the area for the end of this week into the weekend. The current expected rainfall amounts are in the 1-3 inch range over most of the area, but locally heavier amounts cannot be ruled out, particularly if thunderstorms moved repeatedly over the same areas. Thus, there is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall across the area from the WPC excessive rainfall outlook, mainly on Saturday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 91 69 88 73 / 0 0 40 20 Panama City 87 71 85 72 / 0 20 50 30 Dothan 89 69 86 71 / 0 20 60 40 Albany 88 68 86 72 / 0 10 70 40 Valdosta 89 67 89 73 / 0 0 30 20 Cross City 89 66 89 73 / 0 0 30 10 Apalachicola 84 73 83 74 / 0 20 40 20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Lynn Haven
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Thu -- 02:06 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:15 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:40 PM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Laird Bayou
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Thu -- 02:05 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:35 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:30 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:12 PM CDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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