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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 315 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..West winds around 10 knots, becoming north with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Saturday..North winds around 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.

GMZ600 315 Pm Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis..The moderate to strong easterly flow over the gulf waters will decrease through the end of the week. A cold front will cross area waters Friday night, bringing moderate to strong offshore flow this weekend.

FXUS64 KMOB 031935 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

An upper level shortwave trough stretching south along the US Rockies begins to shift east. This shifts an upper level ridge stretching north over the Lower Mississippi River south and eases upper level subsidence over the region and nearby a bit. A surface ridge stretching south along the Appalachians weakens a bit in response, weakening moderate to strong easterly winds over the forecast area a bit. A drier airmass over the forecast area and nearby will get re-enforcement as a bit drier air moves in from the east. Temperatures will see little change through Wednesday, and are expected to remain above seasonal norms. Temperatures today and Wednesday are expected to top out in the upper 80s to around 90. Tonight, with a dry airmass in place over the forecast area, combined with mostly clear skies allowing for efficient overnight cooling, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 50s along and north of highway 84 to low to mid 60s along and south of I-10 tonight, a bit above seasonal norms. The forecast remains dry through mid week.

Moderate to strong easterly winds over the northern Gulf will slowly ease through the week, easing swell somewhat on area beaches. A High Risk of rip currents will ease to Moderate by the weekend. Have extended the current High Rip Risk going to 10z tonight to 00z Thursday, with the stronger easterly winds lasting a bit longer than originally anticipated, bringing higher swell to area beaches a bit longer.
/16


SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A pattern change is coming for the end of the week into early next week. While this pattern change will bring the first real taste of fall to the region, it will not provide much, if any, relief from the very dry conditions which is not good news for our worsening drought.

We will keep above normal temperatures through Friday as shortwave ridging breaks down in response to a lead shortwave that moves from the southern Plains into our region by Friday morning. A much stronger shortwave quickly dives south out of south central Canada and helps to carve a highly amplified trough across the eastern CONUS for the weekend into early next week. This will serve to send a strong cold front into the forecast area Friday night into early Saturday morning. The combination of the lead shortwave on Friday and the cold front Friday night could result in a few isolated showers Friday-Friday night, primarily across the western half of the area, as that is where deep layer moisture will attempt to rebound the most. However, deep layer moisture and lift will not be sufficient to produce any substantial rain with this cold front.

Much drier air moves into the area over the weekend in the wake of the front with temperatures dropping to below normal levels. We could very well see the first 40s of the season for lows, especially over inland areas Sunday and Monday mornings. The coolest highs of the forecast look to be on Sunday where 70s should be prevalent.

We will maintain dry and pleasant conditions through early next with with temperatures slowly moderating as the eastern states trough begins to slowly shift east of the region. 34/JFB

FIRE...

A dry airmass over the area will moderate a bit into Friday before a strong cold front crosses the area late Friday into Friday night. Strong northerly winds and a dry airmass will likely warrant fire weather warnings this weekend.
/16

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A tight pressure gradient over the Gulf will slowly ease through the rest of the week, with Moderate to Strong easterly winds decreasing to light to moderate by friday. Strong cold front will cross area waters Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing strong offshore flow for the weekend.

For AFD:A system that has developed off the East Coast will bring an increasing more northeast flow to area waters through today. An added downglide component to offshore waters currently is bringing an increase to moderate to near strong winds into Friday, with protected waters being mostly light. As the system moves off to the northeast, winds over area waters will become mostly light, with a few, temporary increases to moderate, over the weekend.
/16

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 62 89 67 88 69 89 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 10 20 20 10 Pensacola 67 87 70 86 70 87 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 Destin 69 89 71 87 72 88 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 Evergreen 57 92 62 90 64 89 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 10 Waynesboro 58 88 63 87 66 84 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 10 Camden 57 88 62 86 65 84 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 10 Crestview 58 91 62 90 64 89 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204- 206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Tue -- 02:41 AM CDT     2.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:40 PM CDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:34 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

Lower Hall Landing
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Tue -- 04:57 AM CDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:45 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

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Mobile, AL,