Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mobile, AL

FXUS64 KMOB 192009 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

New Discussion, Marine

DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Now through Sunday night
For the remainder of the weekend, an amplified pattern in the height field at high levels persists with a ridge axis aligned from the Gulf, northeast to off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a trough ejecting northeast across the southern/central Plains. The zone of active weather extends from TX, northeast to across the Mid MS River Valley in close proximity and east of a slow eastward advancing cold front.
The ridge aloft appears strong enough to keep the area rain-free through Sunday evening. Later in the night and toward day-break Monday, may see a slight chance of showers breaking out over portions of southeast MS. Higher based clouds look to thicken through the remainder of the weekend and although forecasters cannot discount some patchy late night fog, the coverage of cloud cover appears to mitigate overnight fog coverage and intensity. Will continue to monitor.

With high pressure positioned to our east, well established low level south to southeast flow favors unseasonably warm Spring time temperatures.

The risk of rip currents lifts to HIGH beginning tonight and continues into the early half of next week. /10

Monday through Saturday...
Upper level high pressure centered off the Florida Atlantic coast with a ridge stretching north over the East Coast that has hung tough into Monday will begin to tilt anticyclonically as a series of shortwave troughs move over the Central/Southern Plains. By Wednesday, the upper pattern has transformed into zonal upper flow over the Southeast, with a series of shortwave troughs passing over the Southeast. A surface cold front moves to areas northwest of the forecast area as a closes upper system exits a mean upper trough over the Plains Sunday into Monday. This front becomes the focus for rainfall in the coming week. Another shortwave passing Tuesday shifts the surface front a bit further southeast, closer to the forecast area. Will need to monitor where this boundary moves, with isentropic upglide heavy rain a possibility with the Tuesday system and another passing Wednesday night into Thursday. Guidance is painting precipitable h20 levels rising into the 1.5"-1.6" range in areas near or over the forecast area (generally west of I-65), and MLCapes rising to around 1000j/kg, enough for localized heavy rain, maybe more extensive if the surface front is re-enforced. South of the boundary and the moister air Tuesday, SBCapes rise to around 2000J/kg, with DCapes in the 600-900J/kg range and an elevated dry layer, enough for a few strong to marginally severe downburst storms if they get tall enough. Bulk shear remains low, so organization of these storms is not expected away from the surface boundary. This boundary retreats north under steady southerly flow mid week into the weekend.

Temperatures remain at or above seasonal norms Monday for the coming week. High temperatures range from the upper 70s near the coast to low to mid 80s well inland rise into the mid to upper 80s well inland, around 80 to low 80s closer to the coast for Thursday into the weekend. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s expected for most of the period.

A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected Monday into midweek with onshore flow continuing to bring swell to area beaches. A wide tidal range this weekend will slowly decrease in the coming week, with the Rip Current Risk easing to a Moderate by the end of the week.
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