Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mobile, AL
November 30, 2023 12:42 AM CST (06:42 UTC)
Sunrise 6:29AM Sunset 4:51PM Moonrise 8:47PM Moonset 10:44AM
GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 924 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..West winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..West winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 924 Pm Cst Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly flow gradually shifts to the east overnight as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow returns on Thursday and will increase late this week as high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.
Synopsis..A light to occasionally moderate northeasterly flow gradually shifts to the east overnight as a high pressure ridge drifts east across the marine area. Southeasterly to southerly flow returns on Thursday and will increase late this week as high pressure shifts eastward and the next cold front approaches from the west.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KMOB 300532 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Temperatures have dropped off a bit more quickly than expected, so have updated to lower overnight lows by up to a few degrees. Made other minor edits. /29
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Some patchy light fog is possible overnight, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Scattered to potentially numerous showers are expected to develop mainly over central and western portions of the area Thursday evening, and localized MVFR conditions could occur with the heavier showers generally over southeast Mississippi. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/
New AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
VFR conditions continue over the area through Thursday. Calm or light and variable winds tonight will be followed by a southeasterly flow at 5 to 10 knots developing on Thursday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
A dry zonal flow pattern aloft will become prevalent across our forecast area tonight while surface high pressure gradually shifts eastward across the southeastern U.S. and western Atlantic. High level cloudiness will stream over our region through tonight, but another night of cold temperatures and dry conditions is expected.
Another light freeze will likely impact interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama and interior northwest Florida where lows are forecast to range from 29-32 degrees. Lows closer to the coast are forecast to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Going forward, a Freeze Warning product will only be needed along the immediate coast as all inland locations have recorded a freeze.
Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will increase across our forecast area by Thursday afternoon in advance of an upper level trough swinging from the Desert Southwest to the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandles. The surface ridge of high pressure will continue to shift into the western Atlantic, while surface low pressure deepens across northwest TX/southwest OK. Surface flow will become southeasterly over our region by Thursday afternoon between these features, with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 50s over southwestern portions of our CWA by late in the day. Deep layer moisture will also gradually improve across southeast MS and far southwest AL by Thursday afternoon, where PWAT values rise to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. There may be just enough ascent along the eastern fringe of the moisture axis to aid in the development of a few showers across southeast MS by late Thursday afternoon. Will keep POPs in the slight chance category (~20%) for now over these far western zones, with continued dry conditions across the remainder of the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to range in the 60s across our region. Increasing southeasterly flow and swell will support a MODERATE risk of rip currents along area beaches Thursday into Thursday night. The risk could start trending toward HIGH by early Friday morning with surf heights also building to 3-5 feet.
/21
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Here comes the rain!
We transition into an active pattern as we roll through the latter part of the work week and into this weekend. The initial round of rain will be entering the area through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday as a shortwave pivots out of Texas and into the Midwest.
The surface high overhead gets nudged out of the region as a surface low (associated with the shortwave) ejects out of the Southern Plains toward the Midwest. Deep onshore flow allows rich, Gulf moisture to begin funneling into the Gulf Coast with PWATs approaching 2 inches along the coast by Friday afternoon. As the surface low jet sets off to the northeast, a warm front begins to lift out of the Gulf and slides into the local area in the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Chances for thunderstorms increase as we approach the pre-dawn hours on Friday and through the day as the warm front continues to lift across the area. Can't rule out a few strong storms early on Friday given the warm front moving overhead and strong deep layer shear. That said, the instability doesn't begin to ramp up until after the strong shear begins to lift out of the area in the morning on Friday. Given that we don't have both the strong shear and increasing instability at the same time (along with a saturated profile), the chances for severe storms seems rather low at the moment (unless the warm front surges inland faster and residence time in the warm sector increases). Heavy rainfall and the potential for minor flooding is more of a concern than severe storms on Friday (especially across the coastal counties) and that concern only grows as we move deeper into the weekend.
There won't be much of a break between the initial round of rain and the next rounds as rich, Gulf moisture continues to funnel into the region. Waves of rain will slide across the area off and on in the Friday night through Sunday timeframe. Expect another jump in rain chances in the overnight hours on Friday through early Saturday evening and another wave early on Sunday. PWATs remain near 2 inches throughout the weekend before a cold front slowly moves across the region. Flooding will be a concern over the weekend as storms will be efficient rainmakers and will have a tendency to repeatedly move over the same locations given the deep southwesterly flow. 2-4 inches of rain is possible across the area with the higher values in that range likely occurring along the Florida panhandle. GFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate high probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain (generally east of I-65), while the Euro ensemble guidance is not nearly as bullish with the higher probabilities hugging the coastline along the Florida panhandle.
Ensemble guidance is still indicating a small probability of 4+ inches of rain, generally east of I-65 (especially in the panhandle), so the higher end of that 2-4 inch forecast is certainly not out of the question for some areas.
A surface high builds overhead next week and the area slowly begins to dry out again. Blended guidance lingers the rain into Monday and Tuesday, but the current thinking is that the rain will quickly exit the area late Sunday night. Trimmed the blended guidance back in the POPs, but if these trends continue, we will likely be able to completely erase the POPs early next week. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as high pressure shifts east and low pressure lifts from the Plains to the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds may increase to Small Craft Advisory thresholds (around 20 kt) over the Gulf marine zones late Thursday night. Confidence was low enough to preclude advisory issuance with this package, but will later shifts will continue to assess. Seas build to 4-6 feet Thursday night into Friday morning and perhaps locally near 7 feet. /21
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 36 66 56 74 64 73 63 72 / 0 10 70 80 70 90 60 60 Pensacola 39 67 59 73 67 73 66 72 / 0 10 60 80 70 90 70 70 Destin 40 68 59 75 67 75 67 74 / 0 0 50 90 70 90 70 70 Evergreen 29 61 47 73 62 73 60 72 / 0 0 70 80 70 90 70 60 Waynesboro 32 62 49 74 61 70 59 70 / 0 10 80 60 70 80 60 40 Camden 30 61 45 70 60 69 58 68 / 0 0 70 80 60 90 60 50 Crestview 28 63 49 74 63 74 61 73 / 0 0 50 80 70 90 70 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Temperatures have dropped off a bit more quickly than expected, so have updated to lower overnight lows by up to a few degrees. Made other minor edits. /29
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Some patchy light fog is possible overnight, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. Scattered to potentially numerous showers are expected to develop mainly over central and western portions of the area Thursday evening, and localized MVFR conditions could occur with the heavier showers generally over southeast Mississippi. Calm or light and variable winds overnight become southeasterly 5 to 10 knots on Thursday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/
New AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
VFR conditions continue over the area through Thursday. Calm or light and variable winds tonight will be followed by a southeasterly flow at 5 to 10 knots developing on Thursday. /29
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
A dry zonal flow pattern aloft will become prevalent across our forecast area tonight while surface high pressure gradually shifts eastward across the southeastern U.S. and western Atlantic. High level cloudiness will stream over our region through tonight, but another night of cold temperatures and dry conditions is expected.
Another light freeze will likely impact interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama and interior northwest Florida where lows are forecast to range from 29-32 degrees. Lows closer to the coast are forecast to range in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Going forward, a Freeze Warning product will only be needed along the immediate coast as all inland locations have recorded a freeze.
Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will increase across our forecast area by Thursday afternoon in advance of an upper level trough swinging from the Desert Southwest to the vicinity of the TX/OK panhandles. The surface ridge of high pressure will continue to shift into the western Atlantic, while surface low pressure deepens across northwest TX/southwest OK. Surface flow will become southeasterly over our region by Thursday afternoon between these features, with dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 50s over southwestern portions of our CWA by late in the day. Deep layer moisture will also gradually improve across southeast MS and far southwest AL by Thursday afternoon, where PWAT values rise to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. There may be just enough ascent along the eastern fringe of the moisture axis to aid in the development of a few showers across southeast MS by late Thursday afternoon. Will keep POPs in the slight chance category (~20%) for now over these far western zones, with continued dry conditions across the remainder of the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to range in the 60s across our region. Increasing southeasterly flow and swell will support a MODERATE risk of rip currents along area beaches Thursday into Thursday night. The risk could start trending toward HIGH by early Friday morning with surf heights also building to 3-5 feet.
/21
SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Here comes the rain!
We transition into an active pattern as we roll through the latter part of the work week and into this weekend. The initial round of rain will be entering the area through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday as a shortwave pivots out of Texas and into the Midwest.
The surface high overhead gets nudged out of the region as a surface low (associated with the shortwave) ejects out of the Southern Plains toward the Midwest. Deep onshore flow allows rich, Gulf moisture to begin funneling into the Gulf Coast with PWATs approaching 2 inches along the coast by Friday afternoon. As the surface low jet sets off to the northeast, a warm front begins to lift out of the Gulf and slides into the local area in the pre-dawn hours on Friday. Chances for thunderstorms increase as we approach the pre-dawn hours on Friday and through the day as the warm front continues to lift across the area. Can't rule out a few strong storms early on Friday given the warm front moving overhead and strong deep layer shear. That said, the instability doesn't begin to ramp up until after the strong shear begins to lift out of the area in the morning on Friday. Given that we don't have both the strong shear and increasing instability at the same time (along with a saturated profile), the chances for severe storms seems rather low at the moment (unless the warm front surges inland faster and residence time in the warm sector increases). Heavy rainfall and the potential for minor flooding is more of a concern than severe storms on Friday (especially across the coastal counties) and that concern only grows as we move deeper into the weekend.
There won't be much of a break between the initial round of rain and the next rounds as rich, Gulf moisture continues to funnel into the region. Waves of rain will slide across the area off and on in the Friday night through Sunday timeframe. Expect another jump in rain chances in the overnight hours on Friday through early Saturday evening and another wave early on Sunday. PWATs remain near 2 inches throughout the weekend before a cold front slowly moves across the region. Flooding will be a concern over the weekend as storms will be efficient rainmakers and will have a tendency to repeatedly move over the same locations given the deep southwesterly flow. 2-4 inches of rain is possible across the area with the higher values in that range likely occurring along the Florida panhandle. GFS ensemble guidance continues to indicate high probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain (generally east of I-65), while the Euro ensemble guidance is not nearly as bullish with the higher probabilities hugging the coastline along the Florida panhandle.
Ensemble guidance is still indicating a small probability of 4+ inches of rain, generally east of I-65 (especially in the panhandle), so the higher end of that 2-4 inch forecast is certainly not out of the question for some areas.
A surface high builds overhead next week and the area slowly begins to dry out again. Blended guidance lingers the rain into Monday and Tuesday, but the current thinking is that the rain will quickly exit the area late Sunday night. Trimmed the blended guidance back in the POPs, but if these trends continue, we will likely be able to completely erase the POPs early next week. 07/mb
MARINE...
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023
Southeasterly to southerly flow will return and gradually increase late this week as high pressure shifts east and low pressure lifts from the Plains to the Upper Midwest. Southerly winds may increase to Small Craft Advisory thresholds (around 20 kt) over the Gulf marine zones late Thursday night. Confidence was low enough to preclude advisory issuance with this package, but will later shifts will continue to assess. Seas build to 4-6 feet Thursday night into Friday morning and perhaps locally near 7 feet. /21
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 36 66 56 74 64 73 63 72 / 0 10 70 80 70 90 60 60 Pensacola 39 67 59 73 67 73 66 72 / 0 10 60 80 70 90 70 70 Destin 40 68 59 75 67 75 67 74 / 0 0 50 90 70 90 70 70 Evergreen 29 61 47 73 62 73 60 72 / 0 0 70 80 70 90 70 60 Waynesboro 32 62 49 74 61 70 59 70 / 0 10 80 60 70 80 60 40 Camden 30 61 45 70 60 69 58 68 / 0 0 70 80 60 90 60 50 Crestview 28 63 49 74 63 74 61 73 / 0 0 50 80 70 90 70 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 0 mi | 55 min | 44°F | 63°F | 30.25 | |||
| PTOA1 | 3 mi | 55 min | 47°F | 41°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 4 mi | 55 min | NW 1G | 45°F | 62°F | 30.22 | ||
| MBPA1 | 13 mi | 55 min | 44°F | 37°F | ||||
| EFLA1 | 19 mi | 55 min | 56°F | 43°F | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 23 mi | 58 min | 0 | 37°F | 30.24 | 37°F | ||
| DILA1 | 32 mi | 55 min | E 6G | 57°F | 30.21 | |||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 32 mi | 58 min | N 2.9 | 45°F | 30.24 | 41°F | ||
| FRMA1 | 33 mi | 55 min | ENE 5.1G | 57°F | 30.22 | 41°F | ||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 36 mi | 55 min | 61°F | |||||
| PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS | 42 mi | 55 min | E 4.1G | 55°F | 30.20 | |||
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 49 mi | 55 min | N 1.9G | 47°F | 66°F | 30.22 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBFM MOBILE DOWNTOWN,AL | 6 sm | 49 min | WNW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 39°F | 36°F | 87% | 30.24 | |
| KMOB MOBILE RGNL,AL | 11 sm | 46 min | calm | 8 sm | Clear | 37°F | 36°F | 93% | 30.22 | |
| KCQF H L SONNY CALLAHAN,AL | 19 sm | 27 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 34°F | 32°F | 93% | 30.22 |
Wind History from BFM
(wind in knots)Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM CST 2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:55 AM CST -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:47 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM CST 2.02 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 11:55 AM CST -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:50 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:47 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.8 |
Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM CST 1.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 03:00 PM CST -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:46 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM CST 1.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM CST Sunrise
Wed -- 08:52 AM CST Moonset
Wed -- 03:00 PM CST -0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:49 PM CST Sunset
Wed -- 06:46 PM CST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.7 |
| 3 am |
| 1.7 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.5 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Mobile, AL,
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