Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Marys, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Another Hot Day with Heat Index peaking around 102-107 degrees

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, Mainly south of Waycross.

Dirty mid level ridging will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through the rest of the morning. While clouds will linger after sunrise, there'll be filtered sunshine through the morning helping boost temperatures into the 90s by the early afternoon.
Still anticipate at hot summertime day this afternoon with highs peaking around the mid to upper 90s. Like yesterday, afternoon mixing will help lower humidity and keep peak heat index values in the 103-107 degree range this afternoon, which is just below Heat Advisory levels. With the summertime heat, it's important to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks if working outside, and always double check the backseat.

Overall the light west-northwesterly steering flow will delay the Atlantic sea breeze again today. Diurnal instability will build ahead of the sea breeze development and be the convective initiator this afternoon around 1400. After initial showers and scattered convection develop, resulting movement will be outflow-dominant and messy in nature. Generally anticipate outflows to push inland. A robust cirrus shield will advect southward and may set up a differential heating boundary near I-10 where another round of convection will initiate through the mid afternoon. Overall, scattered to numerous pulse t'storms will be capable of gusty winds and a minor flooding hazard due to the potential for heavy, slow- moving rain. Once diurnal heating is lost a gradual fade in convective coverage is expected though a few inland showers may persist until around midnight as lingering outflows interact.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with a few strong to severe storms possible

- Heat indices values will approach Advisory levels each afternoon

Southwest winds continue through the forecast period, leading to the the Gulf breeze pushing inland each afternoon where it will meet with the Atlantic breeze each afternoon. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the breezes, with the higher focus between US-301 and the I-95 corridor along the mergers of the breezes. Potential hazards for any storms that develop this weekend will be locally heavy downpours (with PWATs ~ 1.8" to 2.2"), frequent lightning, and brief wet downburst wind gusts to 40-50 mph.

Warm temperatures persists through the end of the weekend into next week, with Heat Advisory conditions possible each afternoon. With daytime highs reaching into the mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values will near Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight Lows will dip to the 70s area-wide, warmer Lows near the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day next week, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

A trough digs south towards the southeastern US into midweek as high pressure sits to the southeast of the area. Southwesterly flow will persist through the upcoming week, continuing to bring tropical moisture into the area. Expect to see scattered to numerous coverage of convective activity due to elevated moisture levels and diurnal heating as the southwesterly flow will allow for the Gulf breeze to push inland during the afternoon hours. By Wednesday, a frontal boundary looks to sink across the SE GA and towards north central FL by Thursday before stalling.

Temperatures are expected to trend above average through Tuesday, but the coolest days of the week will likely be on Tuesday and Wednesday as showers and storms will keep the area from getting to warm.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions at the majority of regional airfields, with localized shallow mist/fog at KVQQ. A more conducive set up this afternoon for vicinity or +TSRA impacts at all airfields with convection initiating as early as 17z but mostly likely to impact sites between 19z-24z with a downward trend in coverage after sunset and only isolated showers persisting until midnight. Potential for MVFR ceilings will develop with brief heavy downpours reducing visibility to IFR or LIFR levels for violent downpours. PROB30 groups for at all sites has been maintained and TEMPO groups are likely at the next forecast update as probability increases.

MARINE

A lingering trough north of the waters and ridging to the south will continue offshore breezes this morning. There will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coastline this afternoon but minimal activity is expected over the open waters. Another front pushes into the southeastern US Sunday night and will stall and eventually dissipate there through the first half of the upcoming week. This will promote nightly southwesterly wind surges to Exercise Caution levels, mainly offshore. Strengthening offshore flow next week will increase chances for afternoon thunderstorms across the coastal waters.

Rip Currents:

Generally low risk of rip currents through the weekend. There will be a slight increase in the risk to a low-end moderate level during the afternoon with the sea breeze, combined with a moderate onshore but low amplitude swell.

FIRE WEATHER

Westerly winds during the morning hours will shift to become southwesterly by the afternoon hours Today and persist through the weekend and the upcoming week. Scattered showers this morning will increase to numerous with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours as the sea breezes begin to move inland. MinRH levels will continue to be at Good levels through the upcoming weekend and into next week with the continued advection of tropical moisture over the area. Temperatures will rise into the 90s this weekend. Increasing transport winds on Sunday will bring areas of high dispersions on Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Daily showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 96 77 94 77 / 40 20 50 20 SSI 92 79 94 79 / 60 20 60 30 JAX 97 78 96 78 / 70 20 70 20 SGJ 93 77 95 77 / 60 20 50 20 GNV 95 76 95 76 / 60 30 40 10 OCF 94 76 92 77 / 40 20 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.