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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 307 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 8 am est this morning...
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Areas of fog with visibility of 1 nm or less in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 307 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis..
areas of dense fog expected across the nearshore waters early this morning with visibility at or below 1 nautical mile. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and embedded Thunderstorms are expected today ahead of a cold front. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters tonight turning winds to the west after midnight. Stronger northwest winds are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a secondary front will moves southeast across the area.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 1200 utc...
47 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 031054 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 554 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low pressure is well to the north across the Ohio Valley at 1007 mb with a trailing cold front extending southward to northwest GA to southern AL and into the Gulf. Areas of fog will be around early this morning due to light southerly winds and very moist boundary layer. Some weak pre- frontal troughing is noted in the guidance and the latest sfc analysis. Plentiful moisture is ahead of the front, with PWATS of 1.8 to 2 inches. The front will advance to the east along with the pre- frontal trough, yielding high rain chances for today especially over the western zones closer to instability and moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. We can't rule out strong storms again but probably not as robust as yesterday given the weaker instability. Estimating SBCAPE of up to 600-1200 J/kg and bulk shear of 40-50 kt. Regardless, an isolated wind threat and tornado threat remains especially with any bowing structures, mainly over northeast FL. The main time frame is from after sunrise to about 4-5 PM. Highs mainly in the 70s, with a few reports around 80 over eastern northeast FL zones, with southwest winds near 10-15 mph.

Tonight, the cold front will be in southeast GA with a weak frontal wave possible near the FL big bend. The front will continue to slowly push southeastward with a chance of showers along and ahead of it. T-storm chances should be rapidly diminishing through midnight and be pushing offshore into the coastal waters. NBM POPs looked a bit too low so adjusted slightly upward and may need further adjustments upward. Min temps will be a little lower than this morning as the cool air arrives in the wake of the front. Patchy fog will be possible late tonight due to the very moist airmass ahead of the front.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Lingering showers will clear out by Monday morning as high pressure conditions settle in over the region. Cold front boundary will press south over the Florida peninsula with dry weather and westerly flow dominating the weather pattern for the beginning of the week. Patchy early morning fog is possible for Monday followed by breezy southwesterly-westerly winds in the afternoon with winds becoming more northwesterly on Tuesday with dry weather throughout the forecast period. Temperatures will experience a noticeable drop between Monday and Tuesday with high temps lowering from out of the 70s down into the 60s, with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to lower 40s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

A dry cold front will move in over the forecast area from out of the northwest by midweek bringing colder temperatures and gusty northwesterly winds. Dry weather will continue through the end of the week with high pressure moving off to the east on Friday resulting in a more moist southwesterly flow developing through the weekend with increased chances for showers and possible thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be below the seasonal average through the forecast period with temps gradually warming over the weekend.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

At least IFR cigs anticipated this morning with low vsby as well.
Potential for LIFR cig/vsby through about 14z. Cigs expected to lift to MVFR and VFR this afternoon outside of any convection.
Current shower activity is mostly to the northwest of the TAF sites but will be moving in during early morning, with a chance of TS as well late morning and aftn. Best chance of t-storms appears to be near the 14z-20z time frame, highest chances over GNV, VQQ, and SGJ. Isolated instance of moderate to brief heavy rainfall possible with the convection over northeast FL. After 00z-04z tonight, there is a chance of low cigs down to MVFR and some IFR again with the actual cold frontal boundary. Winds will favor a southwest direction for most locations at or below 10 knots, with a few gusts up to 15-20 kt possible during the daytime hours.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

Areas of dense fog may still be affecting the nearshore waters per guidance and some of the coastal observation, so opted for now to continue the advisory. Otherwise, numerous showers and some t-storms expected today ahead of a cold front. Cold front will move into the area waters later tonight and winds will shift to the west and precip will exit the area. Some stronger west to northwest winds expected Monday but not expecting any advisory levels winds or seas. By Tuesday night into Wed, stronger northwest to north winds anticipated and we may see an advisory needed mainly for the offshore waters, and just slightly below advy for nearshore waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents are noted for northeast FL zones where the surf may be near 2-3 ft today.
Lower overall risk for southeast GA beaches due to weaker surf.
Slightly lower risk for Monday as surf heights drop further.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

We had some record rainfall reports at JAX and CRG yesterday but not expecting that today. However, additional rainfall through tonight forecast to be up to 0.5 to 1 inches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 53 71 44 / 80 10 0 0 SSI 74 59 72 49 / 70 20 0 0 JAX 78 61 75 47 / 60 20 0 0 SGJ 78 63 76 52 / 60 20 0 0 GNV 78 63 76 48 / 60 20 0 0 OCF 79 64 76 49 / 60 20 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452- 454.

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St. Marys
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Sun -- 01:05 AM EST     5.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:59 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:26 PM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:48 PM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marys, St. Marys River, Florida, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
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Sun -- 02:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:57 AM EST     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:03 PM EST     1.88 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:38 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:16 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

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