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GMZ636 Expires:202312091030;;131321 Fzus54 Kmob 082130 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 330 pm cst Fri dec 8 2023
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height...which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-091030- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 330 pm cst Fri dec 8 2023
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 330 Pm Cst Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..Light to moderate onshore flow continues into Saturday. The onshore flow strengthens Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong northwesterly to northerly flow develops Sunday into Sunday night behind the front with gusts to gale force possible over the gulf. Light to moderate offshore flow returns on Monday and persists into the middle of next week.

FXUS62 KTAE 082056 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 356 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEKEND...

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A longwave upper trough will progress east across the central US, deepening and becoming more compact as it digs into the southern plains before moving toward the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure just off the FL east coast will continue sliding farther east into the Atlantic with winds taking on a more southerly component, increasing dewpoints across the area into the mid-upper 60s by late tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will increase into the mid to upper 70s for areas east of the Apalachicola and Flint River basins with areas west in the low to mid 70s as persistent cloud cover spreads over the western zones.

In the late morning hours, hi-res guidance appears to be hinting at a confluence band setting up over our western FL Panhandle counties which extends through our SE Alabama counties. Despite relatively weak forcing aloft, this may be enough to spark some showers over the area as inland dewpoints rapidly increase. In addition, CAPE should raise to around 250-500J/kg across the aforementioned area.
Bulk shear values ranging from 20-40kts should help these storms maintain themselves for a while, perhaps producing lightning and capable of a few damaging wind gusts if they can become surface based despite marginal CAPE profiles and an evident marine layer.

Closer to the evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our western zones ahead of an incoming cold front associated with a surface low occluding to the northeast over the Great Lakes. With this cold front will come a line of strong to possibly severe storms, though it will arrive just after the near term portion of this forecast as discussed below.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

In the mid-levels, a deepening longwave trough moves through on Sunday with two pieces of energy bifurcating across the region.
An associated cold front is poised to sweep across the region late in the day. In advance, expect multiple lines/clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms. The storm environment is characterized by High Shear Low Cape (HSLC). Storms could begin as early as late Saturday night in Southeast Alabama and the western FL Panhandle, but are more likely early Sunday morning, then moving eastward across Southwest Georgia and the FL Big Bend into the evening hours. Where storms can become surface based, the main threat would be isolated damaging winds, but any QLCS features could lead to a brief tornado. SPC has the entire tri-state region in a marginal risk for severe thunder- storms. There are hydro concerns as well, and that is further discussed in the Hydrology section at the end of this product.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Dry weather is expected through the period, with a low potential for a few showers to work into coastal areas late in the week as low pressure tries to develop in the gulf. Otherwise, strong high pressure should dominate with easterly flow. After chilly weather Monday and Tuesday, temperatures moderate closer to seasonal levels.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions will continue at all sites this afternoon. This evening into Saturday morning, KECP and KDHN will drop to MVFR as a result of lowering CIGs. KTLH will remain borderline MVFR with some uncertainty regarding how low ceilings will get. KECP will also experience showers during this timeframe with VCTS possible around 06z, though it remains somewhat uncertain how far inland storms will move, and if they will have thunder at all.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Southeasterly flow around high pressure over the southwest Atlantic will clock around to southerly ahead of a strong cold front, which will sweep across the waters on Sunday, with winds clocking around to the northwest in the wake of the cold front by Sunday night. Winds should remain in the 15 to 20 knot range through early Saturday night, but could briefly reach the advisory threshold for small craft tonight. A more solid period of small craft advisory conditions is expected to begin later Saturday Night and persist into Monday. In particular, a few hours of gale force gusts are possible with the passage of the cold front late Saturday into early Sunday, and gale headlines may be needed if confidence increases. A short reprieve with lighter winds on Monday as high pressure briefly traverses the waters. Winds clock around to the northeast by Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the mid- Atlantic, with speeds possibly increasing to around 20 knots through midweek.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

There are low fire weather concerns through this forecast period as a cold front will impact the area this weekend resulting in a wetting rain areawide. Beginning tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected before a line of thunderstorms moves through the area on Sunday. A drier trend will begin on Monday with fair dispersions expected areawide.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

With the Aucilla River falling below flood stage this morning, there are no longer any river flood warnings in effect. Our attention turns to another weekend storm with the potential for heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. WPC has placed Southeast Alabama and the FL Panhandle in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain Saturday. The Marginal Risk shifts eastward on Sunday into the FL Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. There is uncertainty in where the higher rainfall axes will setup. The area of most concern is closer to the gulf coast over the FL counties, especially the panhandle, and possibly extending northward into Southeast Alabama - this is where bands with high rainfall rates have the potential to move inland and train over the same areas - some of the ensembles are showing the potential for localized amounts in excess of 5 to 6 inches. This could result in isolated flash flooding. Otherwise, widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the tri-state region.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 67 56 75 64 / 10 10 20 30 Panama City 68 60 73 65 / 20 40 60 60 Dothan 64 54 73 64 / 10 30 70 70 Albany 65 53 74 62 / 10 10 30 50 Valdosta 67 55 77 63 / 10 10 10 30 Cross City 72 57 79 63 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 67 63 70 67 / 20 20 30 50

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ112-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Fri -- 02:08 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM CST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:45 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:22 PM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Lynn Haven
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Fri -- 02:07 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:25 AM CST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:26 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:44 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM CST     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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