Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

This evening and tomorrow could be the last time we see temperatures in the 80s across the region for a while, at least according to global models. Enjoy it will it lasts! A shortwave and its associated cold front look to approach the region tomorrow morning and sweep across the region throughout the afternoon. With most of the upper level forcing way to the north and west of the region, we'll see minimal rainfall with this frontal passage, unfortunately.
With dew points in the 60s tomorrow afternoon, some isolated spots may see diurnal pop up showers, but rain amounts are generally expected to be less than a quarter of an inch. By Sunday evening the cold front will be mostly through the region and CAA will be in full swing.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Sunday night through Wednesday morning will be an awfully chilly period as Canadian air blasts through the region leading to the first killing frost and freeze of the season. Behind the cold front Sunday night through Monday night will be strong gusty winds, leading to wind chills in the low to mid 30s Monday morning, and a Small Craft Advisory across our Gulf waters with occasional gusts to gale force. There will be elevated fire danger on Monday as dew points tank with dry northerly air moving across the region, continuing and worsening drought conditions, and gusty winds all contributing to elevated fire weather concerns. There's the potential to see red flag conditions being met Monday afternoon.

Monday night into Tuesday we'll begin to see winds gradually decrease as a strong surface high begins to dive southeast over the region. Actual overnight temps are expected to be brutal for this time of year, with some areas possibly breaking or nearing record cold. Widespread temps in the mid to upper 20s with coastal areas seeing low 30s expected Tuesday morning. Winds will be light, but strong enough to push wind chills Tuesday morning into the upper teens. Expect various cold weather products from cold weather advisories to freeze warnings to be issued over the next day or two as we brace for this brutal cold.

Tuesday and beyond we'll start to gradually recover from this flash freeze as surface high pressure moves directly overhead, winds weaken and a slow gradual warm up begins. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning expect it to still be cold, hovering around freezing, but with calm winds at least colder wind chills won't be a concern. The weather will remain quiet and benign through Friday.

Expect daytime highs in the low to mid 50s on Monday to warm up into the mid 70s by Friday. Overnight lows follow a similar pattern with temps initially in the upper 30s and low 40s Monday morning, mid to upper 20s Tuesday morning, climbing into the mid 40s by Friday morning.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through the evening. Fog development is forecast to occur after midnight, especially for KTLH and KVLD, where confidence was high enough to keep the 1/2SM in the TAFs; elsewhere, some wind should keep it more of an IFR to perhaps LIFR stratus deck overnight into Sunday morning.

A cold front barrels through the region Sunday afternoon with a few showers and storms possible for KTLH and KVLD where PROB30 groups were introduced.

Winds will generally be light out of the west to southwest ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds develop following the front, which will move from northwest to southeast across the region.

MARINE
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Conditions deteoriate Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps through the region. Strong northwest winds will occur immediately behind the front with gusts occasionally to gale force, especially in waters west of Apalachicola Sunday night through Monday night. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for this time period.
Winds begin to decrease late Tuesday morning as high pressure settles into the southeast US and northeast Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 202 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front will sweep through Sunday afternoon with strong northerly winds following the frontal passage through Monday night.
The combination of near critically low relative humidity values with gusty winds on Monday afternoon is likely to produce elevated fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue into Tuesday with afternoon humidities in the low to mid 20 percent range but stronger winds will diminish.

The coldest temperatures of this fall season are on tap with the first killing frost and freeze expected for all but immediate coastal locations both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 1249 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Severe to extreme drought over much of the region will persist or worsen over the next 7 days. A limited window of opportunity for rainfall this weekend will only produce amounts of 1/4 inch or less, mainly through Sunday. Isolated and localized totals to near 1/2 inch are a reasonable best case scenario. The spotty nature of rain and the lack of heavier amounts will offer no real relief to drought conditions.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information on the ongoing drought.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 64 82 44 55 / 0 30 0 0 Panama City 67 79 43 55 / 10 20 0 0 Dothan 62 79 39 50 / 10 20 0 0 Albany 62 80 40 51 / 0 20 0 0 Valdosta 63 82 43 55 / 0 30 0 0 Cross City 65 82 48 60 / 10 20 0 0 Apalachicola 67 76 45 55 / 10 20 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772.