Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ponce de Leon, FL
May 21, 2024 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 6:05 PM Moonset 4:18 AM |
GMZ635 Western Choctawhatchee Bay-eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- 919 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Tonight - Southwest winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.
Wednesday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Wednesday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.
Thursday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Thursday night - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Saturday - Southwest winds around 5 knots, increasing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
GMZ600 919 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 211631 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Only small changes were made to the PoP grids for this afternoon, as there is a slight signal that some isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop along a surging Atlantic Seabreeze.
Outside of these slight PoP increases along the SE Big Bend and I-75 corridor, there were no other changes made today.
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
High pressure centered northeast of the area will maintain light easterly winds across the region today with winds along the coast turning onshore with a sea breeze passage later this afternoon.
There is a small chance of a stray shower across the southeast big bend, but PoPs are less than 20 percent. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Quiet and warm conditions are expected through the middle of the week with upper level ridging in solid control of the sensible weather. The only notable change in the weather over this period will be surface high pressure shifting into the Atlantic with light easterly flow becoming southerly through the period. No rain is expected with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Largely more of the same can be expected in the long term period beginning at the end of the week, but the upper level ridge will begin to break down as several systems pass by from west to east well north of us over the weekend. With southerly flow all week, its possible enough moisture will be in place to help us see a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the weekend but any coverage will be very isolated and POPs remain at 25% or less with the highest coverages across inland areas. With no rain temperatures will remain warm and it's possible some spots hit the mid 90s over the weekend or early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR conditions look remain through today and tonight, with LIFR conditions developing at VLD overnight. Some possible MVFR VSBYs look to develop at ECP towards the early morning hours; however, there is more uncertainty in these restrictions developing, and they could be removed in subsequent TAF updates. Overall, VFR conditions look to remain at all other terminals through the period, with clear skies developing overnight, and becoming scattered through mid day tomorrow. Winds look to remain calm or out of the southeast at around 5 knots or less through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Light easterly flow regime expected through late Wednesday before winds become light and southerly by the end of the upcoming week.
Winds will be 10 knots of less except for occasional nocturnal easterly surges in the wind tonight and again on Wednesday night.
Seas will be around 2 feet through the week, possibly decreasing by the late week period as light winds move in. No rain or thunderstorms expected through at least the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
The 20 foot winds will remain on the light side with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Heavy rainfall from the weekend still is working through the river system. Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has crested and further downstream into Florida the river will crest through the middle of this week with decreases below flood by late this week. Rises on the lower Withlacoochee below Valdosta likely with it cresting at Quitman on Wednesday or Thursday. Further downstream into the upper Suwanee basin slow rises into action stage and near minor flood stage are likely by later this week and into next week as water moves downstream.
Further west across the Panhandle most have rivers have crested or will only see non-significant rises into action stage through the next few days.
No significant rain is expected in the next 7 to 10 days so expect additional decreases on rivers once water moves its way through the system this week.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 66 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 91 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 82 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108- 112.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1006 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Only small changes were made to the PoP grids for this afternoon, as there is a slight signal that some isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop along a surging Atlantic Seabreeze.
Outside of these slight PoP increases along the SE Big Bend and I-75 corridor, there were no other changes made today.
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
High pressure centered northeast of the area will maintain light easterly winds across the region today with winds along the coast turning onshore with a sea breeze passage later this afternoon.
There is a small chance of a stray shower across the southeast big bend, but PoPs are less than 20 percent. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Quiet and warm conditions are expected through the middle of the week with upper level ridging in solid control of the sensible weather. The only notable change in the weather over this period will be surface high pressure shifting into the Atlantic with light easterly flow becoming southerly through the period. No rain is expected with high temperatures climbing into the low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Largely more of the same can be expected in the long term period beginning at the end of the week, but the upper level ridge will begin to break down as several systems pass by from west to east well north of us over the weekend. With southerly flow all week, its possible enough moisture will be in place to help us see a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the weekend but any coverage will be very isolated and POPs remain at 25% or less with the highest coverages across inland areas. With no rain temperatures will remain warm and it's possible some spots hit the mid 90s over the weekend or early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
VFR conditions look remain through today and tonight, with LIFR conditions developing at VLD overnight. Some possible MVFR VSBYs look to develop at ECP towards the early morning hours; however, there is more uncertainty in these restrictions developing, and they could be removed in subsequent TAF updates. Overall, VFR conditions look to remain at all other terminals through the period, with clear skies developing overnight, and becoming scattered through mid day tomorrow. Winds look to remain calm or out of the southeast at around 5 knots or less through the period.
MARINE
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Light easterly flow regime expected through late Wednesday before winds become light and southerly by the end of the upcoming week.
Winds will be 10 knots of less except for occasional nocturnal easterly surges in the wind tonight and again on Wednesday night.
Seas will be around 2 feet through the week, possibly decreasing by the late week period as light winds move in. No rain or thunderstorms expected through at least the weekend.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
The 20 foot winds will remain on the light side with relative humidity values remaining above critical levels for the next few days. Given recent rainfall, there are no major fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Heavy rainfall from the weekend still is working through the river system. Ochlockonee River at Thomasville has crested and further downstream into Florida the river will crest through the middle of this week with decreases below flood by late this week. Rises on the lower Withlacoochee below Valdosta likely with it cresting at Quitman on Wednesday or Thursday. Further downstream into the upper Suwanee basin slow rises into action stage and near minor flood stage are likely by later this week and into next week as water moves downstream.
Further west across the Panhandle most have rivers have crested or will only see non-significant rises into action stage through the next few days.
No significant rain is expected in the next 7 to 10 days so expect additional decreases on rivers once water moves its way through the system this week.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 66 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 66 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 91 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 82 72 84 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for FLZ108- 112.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PCBF1 | 35 mi | 43 min | SSW 8G | 79°F | 29.98 | |||
| PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL | 42 mi | 43 min | SSE 4.1G | 81°F |
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| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Tide / Current for West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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West Bay Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:54 PM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:15 AM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:04 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 09:54 PM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 1.1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 8 pm |
| -0 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Lynn Haven
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:18 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:33 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:18 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 05:45 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM CDT 1.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:03 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:33 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM CDT -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lynn Haven, North Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.5 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| -0 |
| 8 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 11 pm |
| -0 |
Northwest Florida,
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