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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 856 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through late Wednesday night...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 856 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis.. High pressure will continue building west of the region today. A dry cold front will cross the local waters early Wednesday morning, trailed by strengthening northwest winds and small craft advisory conditions over the outer waters. Winds and seas begin to weaken Wednesday night as high pressure builds north of the local waters through Thursday. The high builds offshore of the southeast atlantic coast Friday.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 02, 2023 at 1200 utc...
47 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 051343 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 843 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 843 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

No changes planned for forecast update. Quiet weather Today with just some mid-high clouds streaming overhead. High temperature forecast looks good, with mid 60s across SE GA, upper 60s I-10 corridor of NE FL, and upper 60s/around 70 further S.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dry weather conditions will be in place through today and tonight as high pressure conditions continue to dominate the weather pattern over the region. Winds will be out of the NW-W with high level clouds throughout much of the day. Cooler temperatures will be in place today with diurnal max temps rising into the mid to lower 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 40s over inland areas and in the upper 40s and lower 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Dry and much cooler this period. A progressive pattern expected, with a dry cold frontal passage expected early Wednesday as a potential shortwave trough passes through the ern U.S. trough.
Some wrap around clouds possible expecting mostly clear skies to dominate on Wednesday under deep northwesterly flow sfc-400 mb.
Below normal temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s with northwest winds of 15-20 mph gusting to about 25-35 mph, so below wind advisory criteria. Wed night, deep layer trough moves offshore as shortwave ridge builds in from the west. A 1030 mb high pressure centered over AR will move to north GA /western NC by early Thursday morning. This will result in a winds shifting more out of the north by late Wed night and weakening, and allow temps to bottom out in the 30s, with a brief freeze possible normally colder locations across inland southeast GA. Patchy to areas of frost is expected.

Thursday...with the high due north of the area some stratocumulus clouds may be impinging on the coastal areas from St Augustine southward. The high pres will shift southeastward and off the coast Thu aftn/evening. Weak coastal trough may form but little to no sensible wx from it. Temps will rebound slightly above Wed highs as low level winds slowly veer from north-northeast to east-northeast but remain much lighter than Wednesday. Mostly clear except for possible cirrus clouds late in the day as dirty ridge approaches.
Highs near 60 over southeast GA, and lower to mid 60s for northeast FL. Thu night, the pattern shifts to more of a warming trend as the ridge aloft builds in and the sfc high moves further offshore in the western Atlantic. Increasing high clouds anticipated.
Therefore, not as cold but still have lows in the 35-40 deg range over most of inland zones around I-10 northward, and lower 40s to around 50 deg elsewhere, with around 50 temps at the coast.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

On Friday, weak trough near the coast, but otherwise broad high pressure system near 32n78w will quickly move further east into the Atlantic while the next weather system approaches. Warm advection and southerly flow won't begin in earnest under Saturday.
Will see cloudiness increase late Friday into Saturday as an upper level trough approaches. The trough will swing through the central Plains Saturday and into the eastern U.S. on Sunday.
Strong cold front will sweep through the MS Valley on Saturday and be near our doorstep Sunday morning. The front is progged to move across the forecast area on Sunday with plentiful moisture accompanying the front. Instability looks weak at about 500 J/kg, but shear is up to 40-50 kt on some model forecasts. Isolated strong storms look possible, but severe wx potential looks low at this time given the weak instability. In any case, will maintain slight chance of thunder western zones Saturday night and most areas on Sunday. Rain chances should be increasing on Saturday night to 30-50 percent, and up to 50-60 percent advertised for now on Sunday.
If timing of the front stays the same, POP values on Sunday will likely need to be raised. The front should be moving offshore Sunday night or early Monday morning. Seasonable temps on Friday but warm above normal on Saturday. Considerable cloudiness and precip may keep temps in check on Sunday, though will depend on frontal timing. Monday, drier and cooler air arrives as high pressure builds in from the west and northwest.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with high level clouds and surface winds building in from out of the W-NW with sustained speeds reaching upwards of about 10 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

High pressure will continue building west of the region today. A dry cold front will cross the local waters early Wednesday morning, trailed by strengthening northwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions over area waters. Winds and seas begin to lower late Wednesday night as high pressure builds north of the local waters through Thursday. The high builds offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast Friday.

Rip Current Risk: Low Risk for beaches today. Moderate Risk beginning for NE FL beaches Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

Drier and cooler air will be the rule through Thursday as high pressure and series of troughs pushes through the area. RH values may dip down to lower to mid 30s in areas today and Wednesday.
Gusty sfc winds and higher transport winds on Wednesday will lead to elevated dispersion, with dispersion possibly at or exceeding 75 in a few locations. Much lower winds and dispersion on Thursday with dispersion indices at or below 20 west of I-95 and from I-10 northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 43 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 67 47 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 67 45 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 69 48 61 44 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 69 45 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 70 46 62 36 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.

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Seacamp Dock
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:17 AM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:25 AM EST     1.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:34 PM EST     5.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:58 PM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 01:28 AM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:29 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:09 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:48 PM EST     1.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:49 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:16 PM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

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