Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kings Bay Base, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:44PM Sunday March 29, 2020 11:58 PM EDT (03:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 11:36PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 912 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet.
Thursday night and Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 912 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis.. A weak, dry cold front will push through the area late tonight and early Monday. A stronger cold front will push through the local waters Tuesday night with potential for small craft advisory conditions. High pressure will build north of the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of mar 28, 2020 at 1200 utc... 71 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 79 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 102 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kings Bay Base, GA
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location: 30.77, -81.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 300113 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 913 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE.

A few record highs again today and temps are settling into the 70s with light winds at 9 PM. Mostly clear skies at this time, but mid to mostly high level clouds will be moving into the area from the west tonight as the mid level ridge moves southward. A weak, dry cool front upstream will push in from the northwest tonight accompanied by some low clouds and then slowly push into northeast FL early Monday morning. A few sprinkles possible northwest of Alma GA later tonight but very limited convergence and available moisture for only 5-10 percent POPs.

No major changes to the ongoing forecast with min temps still expected in the lower to mid 60s. Patchy to areas of fog should be mainly confined to northeast FL late tonight and early Monday morning as the front ushers in drier and somewhat cooler air for southeast GA.

MARINE. Southerly winds near 10-15 kt this evening expected to shift to westerly-northwesterly and decrease gradually as a weak front moves into area waters. Current forecast on track.

PREV DISCUSSION [753 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Deep layer ridging is in place over the FL Peninsula today and will shift eastward this evening. Locally, low level winds from the south- southwest at around 5 to 10 mph today, with an onshore seabreeze along the Atlantic coastline this afternoon. Overnight, winds will become light and variable. Record heat continues with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low-mid 90s across the area. Overnight, temperatures will remain above normal in the mid 60s, upper 60s along the St. Johns River and the Atlantic coastline. Fog is expected to develop again overnight in north-central FL and the Suwannee Valley.

Climate:

Site Normal Record Forecast ---------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 76 89 (1991) 93 Gainesville 77 94 (1907) 92 Alma 75 87 (2017) 91 St. Simons Island 71 85 (2015) 87

SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night].

A shortwave trough will dig into the Four Corners region on Monday, ejecting into the Southern Plains Monday night, the Southern Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, and the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night. Enhanced upper level divergence from this disturbance will help lower pressures out ahead of it, with a surface low and corresponding cold front developing Monday evening in the Southern Plains. This front will track eastward, moving into the southeast Tuesday and forecast to exit our area overnight Tuesday night. With a deepening low approaching the area, the local pressure gradient will tighten, leading to breezy conditions Tuesday before the front reaches us. Sustained winds of up to 15-25 mph, with potential gusts near 35 mph at times.

There's good model agreement on this being a progressive frontal system, and though there is some discrepancy in the exact timing, the general time frame for our area has consistently been Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Plenty of moisture will be on tap for the front with models showing PW values in the 1.5-2" range, so heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms. However, with a fast forward speed, this is not expected to cause widespread flooding issues. Increasing cloud coverage ahead of the front on Tuesday could limit afternoon temperatures (to the upper 80s) and the amount of instability available, but the GFS still shows 300-800 J/kg MLCAPE advecting into the area coinciding with its timing of the front late Tuesday afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. The southern stream jet will swing across north FL and south GA as this system moves through Tuesday, so deep layer shear is anticipated to be around 50-60 kts with an 850 mb jet of 40 kts. As a result, thunderstorms that develop could produce damaging wind gusts. Although there's not much directional shear, the low level wind speed shear will be around 20-30 kts, so isolated tornadoes will be possible as well.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday].

Wed & Thu: A cooler/drier NW flow behind the front will lead to Max temps closer to climo values to start April mostly in the 70s across SE GA and NE FL to near 80 degrees across north central FL. Lows will actually fall into the 40s over interior SE GA and NE FL, otherwise lows generally in the 50s through the dry period under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Friday: Surface winds veer to E to ESE direction by afternoon with a moist southwesterly wind aloft starting to prime the mid to upper level of the atmosphere. There may be a weak vort lobe swinging through SE GA Friday afternoon. There may be some sprinkles or virga over interior SE GA will drier low levels while moisture increases between 700-250 mb with moist SWLY flow aloft. Not enough confidence for wetting rains. Temperatures will modify to the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday and Sunday: There is not great agreement with long range global models at this time frame. On Saturday, high pressure will reside offshore to our east or northeast allowing moisture return in the SSELY flow ahead of next shortwave aloft. This pattern can possibly yield isolated to widely scattered showers with an embedded and isolated storm on Saturday. On Sunday, SSELY flow deepens from the surface to 750 mb further moistening the boundary layer as a stronger perturbation moves into the region. Again, isolated to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are indicated in the forecast. Max temps next weekend are forecast to be about 3 to 4 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Tuesday]

VFR prevails through the late evening. For late tonight and early Monday morning, chance of low cigs and fog again, with the highest confidence at GNV. VLIFR conditions appear likely for GNV, with a chance of IFR or lower for VQQ and JAX. Cigs and vsbys expected to rebound and improve to MVFR by around 13z, then to VFR around 14Z through the rest of the TAF period. Some sct-broken cumulus clouds will develop around 3000-4000 ft Monday afternoon.

Winds will become light and variable over the next few hours through Monday morning. As a weak cool front slides through early Monday morning, light low level flow will shift from west- northwest to north . becoming easterly during the Monday aftn. GNV should still see southwest-west flow Monday afternoon as the front weakens and stalls.

MARINE.

Light offshore flow late tonight and early Monday following weak frontal passage. Weak onshore flow develops Monday afternoon with Atlc sea breeze development. Southerly flow increases to 15-20 knots on Tuesday ahead of next cold front, then potential Small Craft Advisory headlines Tuesday night with the frontal passage as offshore flow develops at 15-25 knots that continues into Wed. Flow slowly becomes northerly on Thursday as high pressure builds north of the waters at 10-15 knots but seas remain elevated in the 3-7 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER.

Drier air behind the weak frontal passage tonight will lead to Min RH values as low as 20-25% across inland SE GA Monday but winds less than 10 mph will prevent the need for any Red Flag headlines. Dispersions will run high over parts of southeast GA rest of today, and, ahead a stronger cold front, area-wide for Tuesday. Dry and cooler air returns for Wed and Thu.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall amounts will be relatively low for the frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Current forecast reflects amounts of around 0.25 to 0.65 inches for portions of southeast GA, with the higher amounts centered from near Alma to Baxley. Into northeast FL, a north to south precip gradient is shown, of just under 0.25 inches around I-10 corridor, and lower amounts going south to Ocala to Bunnell under 0.10 inches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 63 85 61 83 55 / 10 0 0 70 60 SSI 67 81 65 81 58 / 0 0 0 40 50 JAX 64 88 66 87 61 / 0 0 0 30 40 SGJ 68 83 66 86 62 / 0 0 0 30 30 GNV 62 90 63 86 60 / 0 0 0 30 40 OCF 63 90 64 86 62 / 0 0 0 30 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 7 mi58 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 75°F1019.8 hPa (+1.2)
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 11 mi28 min 72°F2 ft
BLIF1 26 mi64 min SSW 1 G 1.9 75°F 1020.6 hPa75°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 26 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 73°F1020.1 hPa (+1.0)
DMSF1 27 mi58 min 77°F
LTJF1 27 mi64 min 73°F 70°F
NFDF1 27 mi58 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 73°F
SAXG1 - Sapelo Island Reserve, GA 46 mi58 min S 8 72°F 1019 hPa (+1.0)69°F
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 54 mi68 min SSW 12 G 14 72°F 71°F2 ft1018.9 hPa (+0.6)71°F

Wind History for Fernandina Beach, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fernandina Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi63 minS 410.00 miFair72°F71°F97%1020 hPa
Jacksonville International Airport, FL22 mi62 minWSW 410.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1019.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFHB

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Last 24hrSW6W5SW5SW6SW5SW4S5SW3W5SW8W11W9W10W11W7SE12SE11SE12S8S9S6S5S5SW4
1 day agoS5SW4SW4S3SW4SW5SW5CalmCalmSW3SW4S5SE7SE10SE11SE14SE13SE14SE13SE12
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2 days agoS6S7S6S5S5S6S7SW7SW9SW7SW8SW10S8S10SE13SE14SE15SE12S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia
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Seacamp Dock
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:04 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.26.35.84.63.11.70.80.61.22.23.44.45.25.65.34.431.60.70.512.23.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, Bells River, St. Marys River, Florida
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Chester
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:56 AM EDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:20 PM EDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.16.464.93.31.90.90.71.12.13.24.25.15.65.44.63.31.80.80.50.923.34.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.