Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kingsland, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights For Today:

- Areas of dense fog expected along the nearshore GA waters through Saturday morning. This sea fog spread onshore through the early morning hours with fog expanding in coverage through mid Saturday morning.

- Widely Isolated T-storms near the Flagler and St John county coast will push inland from the I-95 corridor and move inland across north central FL into the late afternoon hours.

Currently, skies are mostly clear with partly cloudy skies over north central FL and across SE GA north of US-82 as remnant storm debris clouds from yesterday's late afternoon convection drifts eastward to the GA coast. Low status and sea fog is hovering along the SE GA coast mainly from Brunswick area northward, but has remained as mostly stratus with inland extent. Some similarity to the fog evolution as last night with fog expected to expand inland from the SE GA coast while coastal sea fog spreads south towards Palm coast by sunrise with some potential for a Dense Fog advisory along I-95 and into much of SE GA during the early morning hours.

Today, fog over land should lift by mid morning with exception of sea fog along the coast from near Saint Augustine north to St Simons Island persisting until late morning before lifting to low stratus and hovering over the nearshore waters through most of the day.
Southeast winds will resume 5-10 mph as surface high pressure to the east shifts more over Bermuda through the day, allowing the surface high pressure's ridge axis to shift into NE FL late in the day. While a seabreeze circulation will continue easterly winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to around 20 mph along the coast and into the St Johns river to progressing to hwy 301 mid afternoon. Inland winds will become more southerly due to the synoptic clockwise flow around the ridge axis as it moves southward this afternoon.

Slightly drier air will move in from the east and limit convection to only widely isolated showers and T'storms, mainly focused over north central FL where the Atlantic seabreeze and Gulf seabreezes merge near I-75 late this afternoon. There's potential for a brief heavy downpour, wind gusts up to around 40 mph, and small hail to occur from the few T'storms that develop inland this afternoon, but not expecting severe T'storms. Highs will rise into the mid 80s inland with some spots reaching the upper 80s inland towards I-75 and allow for near record high temperatures over western portions of the area (see climate section). Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s along the coast due to onshore flow across the cooler nearshore water temperatures.

Tonight, sea fog potential will re-develop again tonight from the off the coast of the Jax beaches north along the SE GA coast and will be slower to encroach onshore as winds become more southerly and parallel the coast. Skies will remain mostly clear away from the coast and patchy to areas of fog will develop inland due to some radiational cooling over a moist low level airmass with dewpoints in the low/mid 60s. All inland showers and T'storms will end before 10PM. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most areas with mid 60s over north central FL and the St Johns river to the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances over SE GA Sunday - Fog potential each night, which may become dense

High pressure over the Atlantic will shift a bit to the east as an approaching cold front pushes towards the eastern CONUS, but stalls north of the area on Sunday. Winds will primarily be from the southwest over inland locations, with southerly-southeasterly flow along the Atlantic coast on Sunday. Lingering moisture and the southwesterly flow will bring the highest chances of diurnally driven scattered showers east of the I-75 corridor towards the Atlantic coast, with isolated storms possible over SE GA on Sunday afternoon. By Sunday evening any remaining showers or storms will push offshore. Could see some fog develop during the overnight hours for those locations which did see some precipitation as winds weaken.
Monday, looks to be a bit drier as isolated showers will be confined over along the Altamaha River Basin as the frontal boundary remains stalled.

Daytime highs for the time period will be in the mid to upper 80s, with a bit warmer temperatures on Monday as some locations near the 90 degree mark along inland NE FL. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Greatest chance for thunderstorms this period is on Thursday - Nightly fog potential continues

Southerly winds into midweek as Bermuda high remains. Dry conditions return Tuesday and much of Wednesday ahead an approaching upper level trough. The trough shifts towards the SE CONUS around the Thursday time frame, with scattered showers pushing through the area, with storms possible during the afternoon hours. But timing is still left to be determined as the Euro is a bit faster compared to the GFS.

Temperatures trend mostly above climo for the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
The 06Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions at the Northeast Florida terminals, but VLIFR ceilings at SSI as low stratus and sea fog trend visibility to VLIFR as well by 08Z. The seafog will move inland and southward to include the Duval county terminals by 08-10Z and then onto SGJ with prevailing LIFR ceilings with restrictions from 09-13Z for VLIFR ceilings and fog. The window for IFR ceilings and MVFR fog at GNV will limit to after 10Z as the fog will be more patchy inland.

Southeasterly winds will increase to around 10 knots today with fog lifting by 15Z along the coast and 13-14Z inland, but low stratus will keep MVFR conditions intact through 20Z at SSI before returning at by 00Z. Widely isolated showers and storms will stay south of the inland TAF sites, so no VCSH or VCTS noted for the afternoon. Winds from the southeast will turn easterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze 10-12 knots at coastal and duval county TAF sites and 5-8 knots inland after the seabreeze passes in the late afternoon, then winds settle to around 5 knots towards 00Z.

MARINE

Dense sea fog will continue over the nearshore Southeast Georgia waters early this morning into the late morning hours. Dense sea fog will further expand south across the nearshore Northeast Florida waters through sunrise, leading to difficult navigation conditions across the coastal waters this morning. Prevailing visibilities will generally be low, especially within about 20 NM from the coast. Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm moist air pushes across the water by southeast to southerly winds. Otherwise, surface high pressure near Bermuda with the axis westward into north central Florida, will remain fairly stationary through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across the waters Sunday into Monday.

Rip Currents: For today, breezy east and southeast winds of about 10 kts gusting to 15 kts coupled with nearly direct onshore swells (with periods around 10 seconds) to the coast will support a moderate to high risk of rip currents at area beaches. A moderate to high risk will continue into the remainder of the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Sunday

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through the weekend, featuring an onshore southeasterly flow as well as chances for showers inland through this time frame. A weakening frontal boundary will bring greater chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as patchy high dispersions by Sunday as southwest winds develop across inland locations. Conditions then look dry for early to mid next week before a stronger frontal system approaches around Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Nightly fog potential will continue through the weekend and likely into next week as well. Slight thunderstorm chances expected inland during the afternoon and evening through Monday.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 6: KGNV: 69/1983

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 61 85 62 / 10 10 30 20 SSI 74 61 77 62 / 0 10 30 30 JAX 84 62 87 62 / 10 10 30 20 SGJ 78 62 84 62 / 10 10 30 20 GNV 87 62 87 61 / 20 10 30 10 OCF 87 62 87 61 / 20 20 30 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450.