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FXUS64 KEWX 111724 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1124 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 902 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Have allowed the Freeze Warning to expire as of 9 AM given the latest surface observations. Any isolated sub-freezing temperatures lingering in low-lying areas should quickly improve over the next hour.

Quigley

SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

An extremely dry airmass is in place across Texas early this morning. The KCRP 00Z sounding recorded a 0.12" PWAT, which is a daily record low for the date/site. Meanwhile as a surface high slides to our east and a low develops in eastern NM, southerly winds have begun to increase over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau. There, temperatures are unlikely to fall much more this morning. However, many locations in our central and eastern counties had winds go calm earlier than expected, allowing surface temperatures to plummet to at or below freezing in many low lying areas by midnight. Meanwhile, some higher elevation locations remained in the low 40s.

Temperatures will continue to fluctuate some as winds ebb and flow through this morning. We do expect to quickly warm-up after sunrise, and it's possible the freeze warning can be cancelled slightly before it's scheduled 15Z expiration. Southerly winds will pick up over the rest of the region by mid-morning, and with nothing but sunshine today we'll see highs climb into the 60s. Winds become more easterly/southeasterly overnight into Tuesday which will increase our dew points into the upper 40s/lower 50s by Tuesday evening. In addition, as the next trough begins to approach from the west we'll see an increase in cloud cover from west to east late tonight through Tuesday. These factors should combine to keep overnight lows above freezing tonight areawide. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in many areas, though western/northwestern portions of the area that see clouds build in early will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Models are in agreement in taking an upper level low over Arizona on Wednesday to over New Mexico on Thursday, then differ somewhat on the track and timing of the low over Texas on Friday into Saturday.
A southwesterly flow aloft off the Pacific and a southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of Mexico will import an unseasonably moist airmass across most areas. Forcing strengthens generating chances of showers mainly over western parts of South Central Texas on Wednesday into Thursday. Chances will be much lower across eastern areas where a drier airmass lingers due to an easterly lower level flow there. As the upper level low moves over Texas, a cold front moves across the area on Friday. This will enhance forcing allowing for showers to spread to the east late Thursday into Friday. Some locally heavy rains up to 2 inches are possible and WPC has indicated a marginal risk of excessive rains out west for Thursday and most areas for Friday. If any flooding were to occur, it would be urban and small stream type. Minimal instability and weak mid level lapse rates indicate a potential for only isolated thunderstorms. Chances for showers linger across eastern areas through Saturday as the upper level low is in proximity while it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Due to the extensive cloudiness and showers on Wednesday through Saturday, below normal high temperatures and above normal low temperatures are expected with rather small daily temperature ranges.
Next Sunday turns warmer with cloudiness decreasing as the upper level low moves out into the Gulf of Mexico. Still expect continued fine tuning of the forecast as we go through the next several days as there remain consistency and consensus issues among the models and ensembles.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the majority (if not all) of the period at our terminals. Current satellite depicts SKC conditions over the area, though FEW-SCT upper level clouds based near FL250 will push into the region this evening and tonight. Modest low level moisture will begin to return to the area on Tuesday, encouraging cloud development below FL100. Don't currently expect said clouds to translate to any reductions at the I-35 fields, though MVFR is possible by mid-morning at DRT. Have introduced mentions of these reductions in the 18Z DRT TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 64 42 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 39 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 42 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 40 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 43 64 58 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 39 67 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 41 68 55 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 40 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 41 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 44 68 54 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 66 44 70 56 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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