Burnet, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Burnet, TX

June 18, 2024 1:44 AM CDT (06:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 4:45 PM   Moonset 2:38 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burnet, TX
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Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024


(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moisture is on the increase across South-Central Texas with some showers noted across areas east of the I35 corridor. Expect this to continue through the afternoon with activity dwindling around sunset with the loss of day time heating. Temperatures are currently in the lower 90s for most locations and highs later today will be in lower 90s to 103 degrees out west. Most of the area will remain dry overnight, but can't rule out some streamer showers once again across the eastern two-thirds of the area by daybreak. Will show some 20 PoPs to cover that. Otherwise, lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 70s with a return of nocturnal low-level stratus.

Rain chances tomorrow will mainly be back to areas east of I35 where the best moisture will remain for one more day. Will show PoPs generally in the 20-40 percent range. Highs will be in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees out west. Moisture will begin to increase and move west by late Tuesday night as moisture associated with a tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico nears the area.
PoPs Tuesday night will be in the 20-50 percent range. The bigger impacts will be in the long-term portion of the forecast below.

(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

To say the long term period looks active would be a bit of an understatement at this point. The latest info from the National Hurricane center gives the disturbance associated with the Central America Gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression/storm over the next 48 hours. Within the 7 day window, the disturbance (91L) also has a 70% chance of development. Ultimately, whether or not 91L develops is not particularly important, as the bulk of the impacts from the system will be heavy rain/flooding impacts.

With regard to the overall setup, the Subtropical High is situated over North Carolina and will strengthen and expand in size over the Ohio Valley by midweek. This will act to block 91L from moving into the central Gulf, and allowing it to move into northern Mexico or south Texas under southeasterly flow aloft. It looks as if PWATs will be near or close to top 10 all time values within the climatology based off of Corpus Christi's sounding history. The max is 3.00" from July 2010, and based off of the ensembles from the GFS and ECM, that value could be challenged Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, with values in the 2.7-3.0" range, some 3-4 sigma above the mean. Those are some remarkable values given the climatology, so we are working with a DEEP tropical airmass moving into South Central Texas midweek. Showers and storms that develop within this airmass will be incredibly efficient rain makers, with rates likely approaching several inches per hour.

The latest 12Z guidance from the GFS still indicates that the northern portion of the disturbance will send a bit slug of moisture inland as early as Tuesday night, with this area of showers and storms spreading inland over the Austin/San Antonio CWA from east to west on Wednesday afternoon. The primary window for heavy rainfall looks to be Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. WPC paints most of the Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor south of Austin through Bexar County in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.
Flooding and flash flooding are looking increasingly likely, so flood watches may need to be issued overnight as we get closer to the event.

Continued shower and storm chances are expected beyond Thursday as tropical moisture remains in place and the upper level pattern remains conducive to an active stretch. Temperatures will moderate, getting back into the 90s by the weekend.

(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

MVFR CIGs prevail overnight into Tuesday morning, then become SCT-BKN VFR around midday. Some streamer SHRA are expected early to mid morning, however PROBs are low and will keep mention out for now.
Will monitor for possible updates to mention. MVFR CIGs return Tuesday evening into night. Higher PROBs for SHRA/TSRA develop in the hours after the current forecast period on Wednesday. Gusty E-SE winds to around 25 KTs can be expected, at times, with sustained E-SE winds around 10 KTs.

Austin Camp Mabry 75 80 75 88 / 20 60 60 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 80 74 87 / 20 70 60 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 80 75 87 / 20 70 70 60 Burnet Muni Airport 73 78 73 86 / 10 50 70 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 92 77 87 / 0 40 80 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 78 72 86 / 20 60 60 40 Hondo Muni Airport 76 81 73 84 / 10 60 80 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 80 72 86 / 20 70 70 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 80 75 86 / 30 70 40 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 80 75 85 / 20 70 70 60 Stinson Muni Airport 77 81 76 87 / 20 70 70 60


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBMQ BURNET MUNI KATE CRADDOCK FIELD,TX 4 sm51 minSSE 08G1810 smA Few Clouds77°F72°F83%29.88
KDZB HORSESHOE BAY RESORT,TX 18 sm49 minSSE 08G1910 smMostly Cloudy79°F70°F74%29.86
KAQO LLANO MUNI,TX 20 sm49 minSE 11G1810 smOvercast79°F72°F79%29.84
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Central Texas,

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