Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Creola, AL
May 7, 2024 11:21 AM CDT (16:21 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 7:36 PM Moonrise 5:29 AM Moonset 7:26 PM |
GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay- 930 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Today - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop.
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy.
Wednesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy.
Thursday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Friday - West winds around 15 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Friday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.
Saturday - North winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
Saturday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ600 930 Am Cdt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis - A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday.
Area Discussion for - Mobile/Pensacola, FL
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FXUS64 KMOB 071159 AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 659 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
VFR to MVFR conditions are prevalent across much of the area this morning, although some fog/low stratus has developed over a few spots in south central AL and the western FL Panhandle that are bringing localized reductions to LIFR. Any fog/stratus that did manage to develop will dissipate in the next hour or two.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the evening.
Southerly winds are expected to increase to around 10-15 kts by the afternoon, with gusts to around 20 kts possible. Winds subside to around 5 kts by the evening hours. Lower stratus may return once again during the overnight hours, possibly reducing ceilings to MVFR. /96
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis will push east across our area throughout the day today.
Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer- like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence.
However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis, a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore, have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around 30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.
By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop- up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday to remain dry.
Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland.
This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I- 10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high through the rest of the week. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
The weather pattern will become increasingly active later this week as an upper level trough digs southeast from the upper Midwest towards the Deep South by Thursday. Latest ensemble guidance suggests an unseasonably deep trough for this time of year represented by mid level heights that are two standard deviations below the mean.
Initially, a lead shortwave trough will eject across the Mid South and into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night. This feature will initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms to our north which should sag southeastward with time into Thursday morning. These storms should gradually weaken with southward extent but will result in scattered showers and storms Thursday morning across interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama. A weakening outflow boundary initiated by this convection will likely stall across northern portions of our forecast area by midday Thursday.
A potent shortwave will dig through the base of the upper level trough as it moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday afternoon. Strong heating and low level moistening in advance of this feature will result in the development of strong instability across south central Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, eastward across much of our forecast area.
Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the middle to potentially upper 70s near the coast. Latest multi model ensemble guidance still features a 30-40% probability of a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment with SBCAPES greater than 2500j/kg along with minimal CIN and deep layer shear of greater than 40 kts over much of the forecast area through late evening Thursday into early Friday morning. This makes sense considering the hot and humid conditions that should be in place. As the mid level height falls overspread this favorable low level environment, expect thunderstorms to erupt over south central Mississippi into southeast Louisiana by late afternoon. Supercell thunderstorms with strong mid level mesocyclones will likely evolve initially to our west and then quickly grow upscale into a fast moving QLCS/squall-line as it races east southeastward over our area. This system should bring the threat for damaging winds and large hail as it moves across across the north central Gulf Coast. Low level winds should remain rather weak and veered with mainly long straight hodographs expected. This will likely limit any tornado threat. We have collaborated with SPC to initiate a Slight Risk for Severe Storms over our area for Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
There may also be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized mainly nuisance flooding as high rainfall rates within a moist environment may result in a few inches of rainfall within an hour or two. Overall, the setup is not favorable and should preclude a more significant flash flooding potential as the QLCS should remain forward propagating with fast storm motions which will limit rainfall totals. In addition, antecedent conditions remain dry with 1 hour flash flood guidance (FFG) between 2-4" and 3 hour FFGs between 4-6". Therefore, the flooding threat remains rather marginal at this time. /JLH
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
The shortwave trough will swing through the region on Friday with a cold front advancing south across our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger along the immediate coast to the east of I-65 into Friday morning before moving east of the area by afternoon. Cooler temperatures along with much lower humidity levels should filter in along with a period of dry weather for Friday night through the weekend. Low level moisture should again increase by early next week as the frontal boundary to our south returns back towards the Gulf Coast as a warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front as it advances back towards the coast. /JLH
MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with seas offshore gradually building to around 3 to 5 feet by the middle to latter part of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 87 73 89 74 88 69 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 10 60 40 10 Pensacola 85 74 87 76 85 72 83 63 / 10 0 10 0 10 50 50 10 Destin 83 75 85 76 84 73 82 64 / 0 10 0 0 10 40 50 10 Evergreen 90 70 91 71 90 66 82 55 / 10 0 10 10 40 70 60 0 Waynesboro 89 71 92 71 90 65 82 55 / 40 10 10 10 40 70 30 0 Camden 89 70 92 69 88 65 80 54 / 30 10 20 10 50 70 40 0 Crestview 89 69 91 70 90 68 84 57 / 10 0 10 0 20 50 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 659 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
New AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
VFR to MVFR conditions are prevalent across much of the area this morning, although some fog/low stratus has developed over a few spots in south central AL and the western FL Panhandle that are bringing localized reductions to LIFR. Any fog/stratus that did manage to develop will dissipate in the next hour or two.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the evening.
Southerly winds are expected to increase to around 10-15 kts by the afternoon, with gusts to around 20 kts possible. Winds subside to around 5 kts by the evening hours. Lower stratus may return once again during the overnight hours, possibly reducing ceilings to MVFR. /96
PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 426 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024/
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis will push east across our area throughout the day today.
Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer- like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence.
However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis, a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore, have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around 30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.
By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop- up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday to remain dry.
Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland.
This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I- 10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high through the rest of the week. /96
SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
The weather pattern will become increasingly active later this week as an upper level trough digs southeast from the upper Midwest towards the Deep South by Thursday. Latest ensemble guidance suggests an unseasonably deep trough for this time of year represented by mid level heights that are two standard deviations below the mean.
Initially, a lead shortwave trough will eject across the Mid South and into the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night. This feature will initiate widespread showers and thunderstorms to our north which should sag southeastward with time into Thursday morning. These storms should gradually weaken with southward extent but will result in scattered showers and storms Thursday morning across interior portions of southwest and south central Alabama. A weakening outflow boundary initiated by this convection will likely stall across northern portions of our forecast area by midday Thursday.
A potent shortwave will dig through the base of the upper level trough as it moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday afternoon. Strong heating and low level moistening in advance of this feature will result in the development of strong instability across south central Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, eastward across much of our forecast area.
Temperatures will likely warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the middle to potentially upper 70s near the coast. Latest multi model ensemble guidance still features a 30-40% probability of a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment with SBCAPES greater than 2500j/kg along with minimal CIN and deep layer shear of greater than 40 kts over much of the forecast area through late evening Thursday into early Friday morning. This makes sense considering the hot and humid conditions that should be in place. As the mid level height falls overspread this favorable low level environment, expect thunderstorms to erupt over south central Mississippi into southeast Louisiana by late afternoon. Supercell thunderstorms with strong mid level mesocyclones will likely evolve initially to our west and then quickly grow upscale into a fast moving QLCS/squall-line as it races east southeastward over our area. This system should bring the threat for damaging winds and large hail as it moves across across the north central Gulf Coast. Low level winds should remain rather weak and veered with mainly long straight hodographs expected. This will likely limit any tornado threat. We have collaborated with SPC to initiate a Slight Risk for Severe Storms over our area for Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
There may also be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized mainly nuisance flooding as high rainfall rates within a moist environment may result in a few inches of rainfall within an hour or two. Overall, the setup is not favorable and should preclude a more significant flash flooding potential as the QLCS should remain forward propagating with fast storm motions which will limit rainfall totals. In addition, antecedent conditions remain dry with 1 hour flash flood guidance (FFG) between 2-4" and 3 hour FFGs between 4-6". Therefore, the flooding threat remains rather marginal at this time. /JLH
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
The shortwave trough will swing through the region on Friday with a cold front advancing south across our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger along the immediate coast to the east of I-65 into Friday morning before moving east of the area by afternoon. Cooler temperatures along with much lower humidity levels should filter in along with a period of dry weather for Friday night through the weekend. Low level moisture should again increase by early next week as the frontal boundary to our south returns back towards the Gulf Coast as a warm front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front as it advances back towards the coast. /JLH
MARINE...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
A moderate onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with seas offshore gradually building to around 3 to 5 feet by the middle to latter part of the week. Slightly higher winds are expected in the afternoon hours near the coast in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. A front moves through the marine zones on Friday, allowing for a light to moderate offshore wind to return for Friday and into Saturday. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 87 73 89 74 88 69 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 10 60 40 10 Pensacola 85 74 87 76 85 72 83 63 / 10 0 10 0 10 50 50 10 Destin 83 75 85 76 84 73 82 64 / 0 10 0 0 10 40 50 10 Evergreen 90 70 91 71 90 66 82 55 / 10 0 10 10 40 70 60 0 Waynesboro 89 71 92 71 90 65 82 55 / 40 10 10 10 40 70 30 0 Camden 89 70 92 69 88 65 80 54 / 30 10 20 10 50 70 40 0 Crestview 89 69 91 70 90 68 84 57 / 10 0 10 0 20 50 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OBLA1 - 8737048 - Mobile State Docks, AL | 10 mi | 51 min | 80°F | 79°F | 29.95 | |||
| PTOA1 | 12 mi | 51 min | 82°F | 73°F | ||||
| MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL | 14 mi | 51 min | S 11G | 80°F | 81°F | 29.92 | ||
| MBPA1 | 22 mi | 51 min | 81°F | 75°F | ||||
| EFLA1 | 27 mi | 51 min | 79°F | 73°F | ||||
| WKXA1 - Weeks Bay Reserve, AL | 28 mi | 96 min | SSW 2.9 | 81°F | 29.95 | 76°F | ||
| DILA1 | 40 mi | 51 min | S 8.9G | 80°F | 81°F | 29.92 | ||
| FRMA1 | 41 mi | 51 min | S 8G | 81°F | 29.93 | 81°F | ||
| GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS | 41 mi | 96 min | S 11 | 80°F | 29.95 | 75°F | ||
| PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS | 46 mi | 51 min | 81°F | |||||
| PCLF1 - 8729840 - Pensacola, FL | 47 mi | 51 min | S 8.9G | 81°F | 29.95 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBFM MOBILE DOWNTOWN,AL | 15 sm | 28 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 84°F | 70°F | 62% | 29.92 | |
| KMOB MOBILE RGNL,AL | 19 sm | 25 min | SSE 11 | 7 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 86°F | 68°F | 55% | 29.92 |
Lower Hall Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 02:27 PM CDT 1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:19 AM CDT 0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:28 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:01 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 02:27 PM CDT 1.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.8 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:29 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:22 PM CDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:02 PM CDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:29 AM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 12:22 PM CDT 1.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:02 PM CDT -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.6 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1.3 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.1 |
Mobile, AL,
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