Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM Moonrise 7:47 AM   Moonset 10:50 PM

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GMZ631 Southern Mobile Bay-mississippi Sound- 349 Am Cdt Fri May 10 2024
.severe Thunderstorm watch 228 in effect until 7 am cdt this morning - .
Today - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northwest late this morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until afternoon, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Winds and seas much higher near strong showers and Thunderstorms this morning.Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest around 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday night - Northwest winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Tuesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. A moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 349 Am Cdt Fri May 10 2024
Synopsis - A line of very intense Thunderstorms will be moving east across the bays and near shore waters early this morning, with winds in excess of 60 knots possible. These conditions will be very hazardous to small craft early this morning. Otherwise, a moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow early this morning will become more westerly during the day today. Winds become northerly and decrease somewhat by Friday night, with a light to moderate offshore flow then prevailing through most of the weekend. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area during the early part of next week.

FXUS64 KMOB 100840 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR AND SHORT TERM
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #226 continues for most of interior southeast MS and interior southwest and south central AL through 5 AM. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#228) has been issued for the coastal counties of AL and the three western-most counties of the FL panhandle until 7 AM CDT. The severe threat over inland areas will be diminishing toward daybreak, but the severe threat for the coastal counties will be increasing through daybreak and shortly thereafter. For a more detailed discussion of the severe weather over the next several hours please refer to Mesoscale Update we just issued at 140 AM CDT (also found at the bottom of this discussion).

The showers and thunderstorms will be ending from west to east across the area later this morning as a cold front moves east across the area. The front should be just east of our entire forecast area by late this afternoon. The front will be well to the south of the forecast area and out over the Gulf tonight through Sunday night, with slightly cooler temperatures and a much drier airmass in place across the region. For today we will still be looking at likely to definite PoPs (60-90 percent) through late morning or mid day, but PoPs should start to drop rapidly thereafter with only isolated PoPs east of the I-65 corridor by late afternoon. No PoPs tonight through Sunday, with a low end chance PoP returning by late Sunday night as the front that has been stalled over the Gulf begins to lift back north as a warm front.

Temperatures will cool off during the forecast period. Will still be a little warm and muggy today with highs in the mid 80s for most locations, but daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will only be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire region (maybe a few mid 80s near the coast). Lows tonight and Saturday night will range from the mid 50s inland to the mid 60s coastal, and then slightly warmer Sunday night with lows ranging from the low 60s inland to the upper 60s coastal. DS/12

EXTENDED TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A more unsettled weather pattern returns most of the extended term period as the warm front moves inland over the southeast CONUS and a series of short waves periodically moves east across the region.
Monday and Tuesday, look for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day and then scattered storms Wednesday and Thursday. There could be some stronger storms at times, but model disagreement continues and we will continue to monitor and make adjustments as we get closer to the time frame in question.
Daytime highs on Monday in the 70s and 80s, then a little warmer Tuesday through Thursday, with highs mainly in the 80s. Lows Monday night through Wednesday night will range from the mid and upper 60s inland to the low/mid 70s along the coast. DS/12

MARINE
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A line of very intense thunderstorms will be moving east across the bays and near shore waters early this morning, with winds in excess 60 to 70 knots possible. These conditions will be very hazardous to small craft early this morning. Otherwise, a moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow early this morning will become more westerly during the day today. Winds become northerly and decrease somewhat by Friday night, with a light to moderate offshore flow then prevailing through most of the weekend. A light to moderate onshore flow returns to the marine area during the early part of next week. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 140 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

Severe threat ongoing across the northern half of the forecast area with the threat ramping up over the next few hours across the southern half of the area.

A severe line of storms has moved into far inland southwest Alabama as of this discussion time. As the line continues to move east, it will start to encounter a slightly less favorable airmass. This is due to an outflow boundary that has cooled temperatures into the mid to upper 60s across Crenshaw, Butler, and parts of Wilcox and northern Covington Counties. This has created an instability gradient and will likely result in the northern part of this line gradually weakening. However, a severe threat will still persist especially just to the south of the outflow boundary.

Further south the severe threat will ramp up as storms continue to organize and strengthen back west across southwest and south central MS. These storms will have a much more unstable airmass with SBCAPES still in the 2500-4000 J/kg range, mid level lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, and deep layer shear of 50-60 kt. In fact, KMOB radar is showing a developing rear inflow jet in some of the storms between McComb and Hattiesburg. Storms will continue to develop to the south along the southward moving outflow boundary with strong to severe convection quickly organizing across portions of SE MS into coastal AL by 3-4am. This convection will then spread into the NW FL Panhandle through 6am. These storms will carry an enhanced wind threat with wind gusts over 70mph possible and individual cells could produce isolated instances of large hail. Low level flow remains rather weak and veered which will keep the tornado threat low overall. However, a quick spin up or two cannot be ruled if the storms congeal into a more organized complex. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed for coastal AL and NW FL within the next hour. 34/JFB


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 86 62 84 63 82 65 79 68 / 70 0 0 0 10 40 80 60 Pensacola 85 64 83 66 82 68 78 71 / 80 0 0 0 10 40 70 70 Destin 83 66 83 67 81 69 79 72 / 80 0 0 0 0 30 70 70 Evergreen 85 57 81 59 83 60 78 64 / 80 0 0 0 10 30 70 60 Waynesboro 85 57 81 60 80 61 76 64 / 40 0 0 0 10 50 80 60 Camden 83 55 79 57 80 60 74 63 / 50 0 0 0 0 20 70 60 Crestview 85 58 84 58 83 61 80 64 / 90 0 0 0 10 30 70 70

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Fri -- 04:27 AM CDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:46 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:32 PM CDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Fri -- 01:22 AM CDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:47 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:16 PM CDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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Mobile, AL,