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FXUS64 KHGX 081734 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1134 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure to our east will result in a continuing onshore flow for Friday. A low to mid-level cloud deck is present over much of the area, as observed by GOES-16 Satellite imagery as well as observations from area airports. Expect cloud cover to remain mostly cloudy to overcast during the day today and into the overnight hours. Models continue to favor the development of isolated to scattered showers this afternoon as a midlevel shortwave trough approaches from the west. Best chances of rain will be generally south of the I-10 corridor. Not expecting this shortwave to be much of a rainmaker as totals remain below 0.25".

Now to turn our attention to Saturday...A strong cold front is still on track to push through the area. The front should enter the Brazos Valley area around early afternoon, and will push offshore a few hours after sunset (not much change from the previous forecast timing...maybe a touch slower). As far as the severe weather threat is concerned, it's a bit complicated...We have the instability with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, we are in the region of the jet streak that is favorable for upward motion...however, SW flow at the 850mb layer will create a pretty hefty cap. Forecast soundings point to a primarily wind event, IF storms were to initiate. The primary threat of wind makes sense given the lower levels are going to be pretty moist and everything above the 700mb layer is pretty dry. Upward motion would need to be strong enough to break the cap first and foremost. Once the cap is broken, if updrafts were to reach this dry layer, drier air would mix with the saturated air, which would result in an evaporative cooling process that would essentially send colder, more dense air rushing to the surface within the downdraft.

SPC has brought the Slight Risk area a tad north of I-10, though more favorable dynamics overall appear further north and east (Arklatex region). As mentioned in the previous forecast, while there is a conditional severe threat that is dependent on the erosion of the cap, the most likely scenario will be some isolated to scattered showers out ahead of the front with showers and possible thunderstorms along the front itself. A few strong storms should not be ruled out. Given the later timing of the front, compressional heating will likely occur, leading to higher daytime temperatures for Saturday. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s.

As the front moves offshore Saturday night, breezy NW winds will develop in its wake. Lows will be in the 40s with a few locations touching the upper 30s.

Adams

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Breezy/windy and cooler conditions are expected Sunday morning in the wake of the front. Surface high pressure builds southward down the Rockies toward the Big Bend area then eastward and overhead Sunday night. With lighter winds and mclr skies in place Sunday night, I'd look for several locations north of an Edna-Liberty line to flirt with a light freeze. Metro area itself will probably see 34-38F readings.

The surface high tracks off to the east Monday and eventually meets up with another high pressure area dropping sewd from the Midwest and maintains ridging across the eastern half of the conus for much of the week. With the exception of maybe some iso- sct shra well offshore, dominate easterly flow should keep mainly dry seasonable wx across much of the area for most of the work week.

The next western upper trof ejects across the Four Corners area toward the central Plains late Wed into Fri. Depending on the finer details, we may or may not see a coastal trof develop and bring our next chance of rain around Fri. 47

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs expected today as sct SHRA moves across the region. Isolated TSRA possible. Winds will be increasing from the S to SSW. Overnight, winds decrease and cigs drop. Good chance of widespread MVFR with areas of IFR possible. By tomorrow, winds will become more SW as a cold front approaches. The front will bring a chance of SHRA and isolated TSRA by the afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

Moderate onshore flow and somewhat elevated seas will prevail into Saturday. Have hoisted the caution flags beyond 20 nm offshore today.

A cold front will push off the coast Saturday evening with strong northwest winds in its wake. A gale watch has been issued for the bays and Gulf waters Saturday night thru Sunday morning for sustained 25-35kt winds and gusts aoa 40kt. Low water levels are also anticipated in the bays on Sunday, especially around low tide times. A low water advsy will likely be required. Gradually improving conditions are expected late Sunday into Monday as winds/seas subside.

High pressure moves off to the east on Monday and a long fetch of moderate east and southeast winds will then set up across the Gulf for much of next week. Elevated seas and tides will be something to keep an eye on as the week progresses. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 67 75 42 56 / 0 30 20 0 Houston (IAH) 68 79 45 56 / 0 50 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 72 47 57 / 10 40 50 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:17 AM CST     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:10 PM CST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:23 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:44 PM CST     1.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:45 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:35 AM CST     0.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:41 AM CST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:22 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM CST     0.87 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM CST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

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