Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 5:00 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

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FXUS64 KHGX 072321 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 621 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A mostly tranquil period is expected through midweek.

For tonight, low overcast skies will redevelop during the night and early morning hours. South to southeasterly winds will be between 5 and 10 mph tonight. It will feel rather muggy by early Wednesday morning with lows staying in the low to mid 70s and a dewpoint spread of only one or two degrees. Some locations could also see areas of patchy fog, mainly for locations where winds are around 5 mph or lower. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise but low cloud decks could take a little longer to lift and scatter out.

Quasi zonal flow aloft along with a fairly good cap will result in mostly dry conditions over Southeast Texas on Wednesday. However, there is a chance that some of the storms developing over the central and east central portions of Texas will move into the Piney Woods region sometime during the late afternoon to early night hours. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail being the greatest hazards. Elsewhere, capping is expected to suppress activity; thus, little to no chances of rainfall is forecast. It will be breezy during the day with south southeaster winds around 10 to 15 mph and higher gusts on occasion. The highs will be a degree or two warmer, likely to be in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Some moisture convergence may occur during the day, which may result in dewpoints in the mid 70s. This would allow for heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s for much of Southeast Texas. Given that we haven't had these indices in a while now, make sure to be prepared for the heat and take the necessary precautions to avoid heat stress and fatigue if you plan to spend time or work outdoors.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with lows once again in the low to mid 70s.

24

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Thursday will start out with a cold front situated between Dallas and College Station, and a dry line across western portion of the Hill Country. PW's between 1.7-1.9" will be pooling south and east of those features. H85 temps look to be between 20-24C and H7 temps 10-14C. Looking for a surface low to eventually form near the intersection of the front/dryline then trek eastward across or near the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Atmosphere looks conditionally quite unstable with high CAPEs and low LI's, but the million dollar question is if significant llvl capping will be able to erode enough, or be overcome, to tap into that instability for shra/tstm development. Some of the global solutions seem to think so...mainly across the northern 1/3-1/2 of the CWA If it does break, some strong-severe cells are possible during the afternoon and evening hours and agree with SPC's conditional DAY 3 slight risk area. Hail & strong winds would be the primary threats. Hires solutions will be coming into view later tonight & tomorrow which should hopefully aid in forecast confidence one way or the other.

Once the surface low passes to the east, high pressure will build southward from the Rockies and Plains and push the front through the area and offshore Thursday night. Drier and cooler airmass will then filter into the region late Thursday night into Saturday.

As high pressure slides off to the east Sunday, Gulf moisture will flow back into the region. Mid and upper zonal flow looks somewhat messy Sunday & Monday and most global deterministic solutions depict better precip chances than NBM during some parts of this time period.
Nudged NBM POPs up just a touch for now, but suspect one of those days will need some continued upward adjustments as time progresses. 47

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Decreasing S to SE winds and the development of MVFR ceilings will return to the area early this evening and persist through early tomorrow morning.
Some IFR ceilings along with patchy fog are possible too. There will be mainly S winds tomorrow at 10 to 15 knots and occasionally gusty.
Expecting to see low end VFR ceilings once again tomorrow afternoon.
Will start to indicate lowering decks heading into the tomorrow evening thru Thursday morning time period.

42

MARINE
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Seas holding tough at 6ft at 42019 so will maintain the caution flags beyond 20nm of shore. Fetch of light to moderate onshore winds will maintain somewhat elevated seas for the next several days. Mariners should note high flows from area rivers, creeks, and streams will lead to above normal water levels and strong currents in the bays and intercoastal water way well into midweek and can make navigation difficult. The next cold front pushes off the coast late Thursday night and early Friday morning with moderate north and northeast winds in its wake. E/SE flow resumes over the weekend. 47

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

There is the chance for periods of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, but is not expected to result in any additional aerial flooding. Rivers will remain swollen for days (possibly weeks), however. Do NOT go around barricades and stay out of the floodwaters. Do NOT return to homes until officials deem that it is safe.

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity, San Jacinto, and Navasota rivers. The following river points are either at or forecast to go into Moderate or Major flood stage as of Tuesday afternoon:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Crockett): Rising to Moderate tonight - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - West Fork San Jacinto (Humble): Moderate Flood Stage - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage - Navasota River (Normangee): Moderate Flood Stage

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues. 

Also of note is that the downstream runoff from the previous rainfall will cause continued rises along the Brazos River through the end of the week. The Brazos River at Sugar Land, Rosharon, and West Columbia are forecast to rise into minor flood stage at the end of the work week and through the weekend.

24

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 89 73 89 / 10 0 10 30 Houston (IAH) 75 90 75 90 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 75 84 75 82 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:10 AM CDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:57 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:01 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Point Barrow
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:21 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:17 AM CDT     1.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:48 PM CDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 PM CDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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