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FXUS64 KHGX 110521 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Northerly winds will begin to relax to 5 to 10 mph this evening into tonight as high pressure moves across Southeast TX. Strong CAA tonight will be bringing even colder conditions across the region with lows dropping into the 30s for the inland portions and the low 40s for the Barrier Islands. Areas over the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods region may experience sub-freezing temperatures. Elsewhere, temperatures will flirt to near freezing, thus, we will need to keep an eye for a potential Freeze Warning for several counties.

On Monday, high pressure will continue to dominate the local weather pattern and will bring us a beautiful December day. Skies will be mostly sunny and the highs will be in the low 60s areawide. With calm east to southeast winds, I'd say, it will be a great day to be outdoors.

Tranquil conditions will continue through Sunday night, with mostly clear skies inland and partly cloudy skies along the coasts. Lows Sunday night into early Monday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for areas north of I-10, in the mid 40s along and south of I-10, and in the low 50s along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Fair weather and a bit warmer than the short term temperatures on Tuesday as high pressure reigns across the Gulf coast...for a little bit longer, anyway. A weak, messy shortwave trough will drop over the Gulf from northeast Mexico, and will help spin up a weak surface trough that will cross well offshore beyond our nearshore waters late Wednesday night and Thursday. As a result, we'll see some low rain chances over the far edge of our waters as early as Tuesday night, spreading onto coastal areas Wednesday night as the trough makes its closest approach to shore...which isn't really all that close.

So, while some rain chances will be in the picture, the main implication here will be that increased clouds will tamp down afternoon highs from the upper half of the 60s Tuesday to the lower half of the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday...for that little bit, anyway.

While this Gulf fun is happening, an upper trough from the northern stream looks to close off and makes its way across the Southwest US. Guidance is gradually coming into greater agreement on this, but there are still some important details to work out.
The main uncertainty is where through the state this upper low is going to cross. We'll definitely see rain chances come up across the area late this week, and showers appear likely for a large chunk of us Friday, with some isolated thunderstorms possible.
With plenty of clouds and on and off rainfall expected, diurnal temperature ranges will get real tight - thinking no more than 10 degrees of temp change in a day with 50ish lows and 60ish highs for most.

The nice thing is that precipitable water looks to stay below the 90th percentile in the ensemble data except for a small area around Matagorda Bay. Right along with that, the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index for QPF is below 0.5 for all but that Matagorda corner, which is in the 0.5 to 0.6 range. So while we've still got to iron out details to have more confidence in exact forecast rainfall amounts, nothing yet stands out to make me think there is a strong signal for any excessive rain. We'll have to keep an eye on that Matagorda corner however, as some more extreme moisture amounts and high QPF potential does appear in the model data not too far to the west/southwest, and so a rainfall of 2-3 inches spread over three or four days could either compress in that timeframe and/or increase in amounts to something more worrisome. Not a real serious concern, but worth us keeping an eye on. We'll let you know if the data takes a turn for something that would be more of a problem.

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle with clear skies and light winds. Calm to light winds will continue overnight through midday Monday, then winds will transition to the south- southeast.

JM



MARINE
Issued at 231 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

The overnight gale warning has come to an end, replaced by a small craft advisory on the Gulf as winds and seas slowly come down. The plan is to let the nearshore small craft convert to caution flags this afternoon, joining the bays. The offshore small craft will likely be needed through at least this evening, as seas are still 9- 10 feet at the Freeport buoy.

Regardless, winds will become light tonight as high pressure drifts across Southeast Texas, then become easterly and light to moderate as that high drifts east of the region. The winds look to persist through much of the week, and will build seas and cause above normal tides.

An increasing pressure gradient between the high and one or even two Gulf surface troughs in the middle to late week will boost winds and seas to where small craft advisories may be needed. Rain chances will begin to emerge as early as Tuesday night, becoming likely over the offshore waters in the second half of the week, until a front on Saturday sweeps through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 32 63 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 35 62 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 44 62 54 65 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ197-199-210>212.

GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
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Sun -- 04:43 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:07 PM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:29 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:56 PM CST     1.47 feet High Tide
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Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

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